Fear of Vox for the PP's slip-ups before 29-N

BarcelonaThe scenarios are changing and the timid recovery in the polls in the last few days for the PSOE –which started from very low in the surveys– may change after the Urda railway tragedy. Until now, even though Pedro Sánchez had climbed positions in the surveys of the last few days and the PP had suffered a decline, there was a trend that remained: Vox continued to rise and had options to join forces with the Popular Party to steer the Spanish government. However, the downward trend of Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party has generated unease among the ranks of Santiago Abascal's followers to the point of fearing whether a right-wing sum to reach the Moncloa will be possible, according to Vox sources consulted by ARA. In fact, this fear is also spreading within the PP, as this newspaper has noted.

"We are doing very well, but the PP is not... and we are suffering," claim sources from the far-right party. And the crux of the fear is that "the PP is playing at being Vox." A "Vox-erization" that they see embodied in the figures of the party's hardest wing, such as Xavier García Albiol, head of the list for Barcelona, as well as that of Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo as Feijóo's number two in Madrid. "They are repeating the serious mistake of 2023," they lament. However, it must also be taken into account that, unlike three years ago, this time the right-wing bloc wants to convey the message that "victory is not guaranteed" so that voters do not become overconfident and assume that the change is certain. In 2023, for example, the rumors about potential cabinet ministers were a constant. Now, however, Vox wants to warn that there is a real possibility that Pedro Sánchez will continue in the Moncloa, if they are not careful.

Three years ago, the stumbles marked the political strategy of the Popular Party. The PP went from signing a coalition agreement with Vox in the Valencian Country, to criticizing Abascal's formation in Extremadura, only to later end up signing a pact with similar characteristics. In fact, the populars also ended the campaign adopting the discourse of the hard-line Ayuso faction. For this reason, now in Vox they fear an erratic campaign by the PP and warn that November 29th is "an election that comes down to three percentage points" and that "the PP cannot lose any more". They warn, in this sense, that Feijóo "is mobilizing the left" with his daily interventions. "He talks about abortion, about euthanasia...", they comment, knowing that these are controversial issues that mobilize progressivism and harm him. In fact, Vox does not place them at the center of their campaign, quite the opposite. Pensions are one of the other headaches.

Demoscopic disaster

Since the snap election announced on October 5th, the PP has not stopped losing support compared to the 137 seats it won in the 2023 elections. Until before the railway tragedy in Toledo, the decline of the populars placed them very close to a technical tie with the PSOE, which in fact is predicted by the latest poll from Artículo 14 –121 to 115– on October 26th. For every point the PP loses, concern increases at Vox, especially due to the fact that they have given up on hunting for the centrist or even former socialist vote, with an institutional profile that the PP has decided to abandon in multiple areas, such as on social media, where it exhibits a hard line. However, the popular thesis is that there is no more room to grow and that they can only try to contain the rise of Vox, which polls push up to almost 70 seats.

The squeeze between the PSOE and the PP is another of the concerns: the fear campaign spread by Guardiola and other leaders in 2023 and in subsequent contests is a bad memory for Vox. They see a "demonization" or going on the attack with interviews of profiles like Álvarez de Toledo and Albiol with a common message: "Sánchez wants division, for Vox to rise so that the PP loses," said the number two of the populars for Madrid to El Mundo.

Campaign strategy

Until now, Vox's campaign strategy was very clearly defined: "pedagogical tone", "not contributing to the fear campaign", "not shouting", not saying a single word "louder than any other", while maintaining forceful content. This also explains this Friday's meeting with the Cercle d'Economia and Foment to try to reassure businessmen and explain their program to them. However, the intentions the party had contrast with what it has shown publicly after the train accident in Urda. Vox blames the Spanish government for it and uses a very harsh tone, usual in other catastrophe crises.

Beyond the train accident, immigration, borders –with the Ceuta crisis in the eye of the storm– and national priority in aid and access to housing will be essential topics in the campaign for Vox, as well as mass deportations. They also have their sights set on the riots that have occurred lately. They will intensify a campaign in Catalonia with leaders such as the leader in the European Parliament, Jorge Buxadé, the pro-worker deputy Carlos Hernández Quero –specialist in housing–, in addition to Abascal.