Terrorism, corruption, unemployment or housing: what has moved the vote in Spain for 20 years?

BarcelonaFrom Monday, November 23rd, until the closing of polling stations on the night of November 29th, the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG) prohibits the publication of polls, surveys, and barometers that could influence the decision of voters. Barring any unforeseen circumstances of force majeure, the campaigns of the nearly fifty parties and coalitions aspiring to obtain representation in Congress and the Senate will focus, at least on paper, on responding to the citizens' concerns and imposing their own agenda to differentiate themselves from the rest of the political options.

ARA compiles in a double chart the nine barometers prepared by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) a few days before the elections of the last twenty-two years, including the current one, to observe how voters' concerns have evolved and which issues have marked the political and electoral agenda. From terrorism to corruption, passing through unemployment and housing. The latter is, for the first time in more than twenty years, the main concern of the citizenry, ahead of unemployment, economic problems, and corruption. Based on the question "What is, in your opinion, the main problem that exists in Spain?", followed by two follow-up questions about the second and third problems, the CIS barometers allow identifying the main concerns that have marked each of the electoral calls.

The fear of terrorism and the imminent outbreak of the financial crisis

The 2004 campaign was eclipsed by the March 11 attacks in Atocha, but even the weeks leading up to the March 14 elections were marked by the terrorist threat in Spain, both from ETA –active until 2011– and jihadism, in a context of intervention in Iraq. Nevertheless, the main concern, which would persist for the next two decades, was unemployment. The country was growing, but job insecurity persisted, with youth unemployment figures that in 2026 keep Spain among the countries with the highest rates in Europe.

Although ETA was still active in 2008, the March 9 elections were marked by the first symptoms of the economic crisis. Months were still missing before the hardest phase hit the second Zapatero government, but housing was already becoming more expensive, with a tightening of mortgage conditions. Unemployment remained the main concern, aggravated by the bursting of the housing bubble. Immigration, the third major concern, entered the political debate with force, often as a scapegoat.

In 2011, the crisis had already wreaked havoc. With an exhausted outgoing government, Mariano Rajoy won on November 20 with more than five million unemployed and a 22% unemployment rate. Unemployment was once again the number one problem, followed by the debt crisis and Zapatero's cuts, which fueled the third major concern: the political class and the parties, in a context marked by the emergence of the 15-M movement and institutional disaffection.

From corruption to political deadlock and the housing emergency

In 2015, the country was beginning to emerge from the crisis, but the recovery was not reaching everyone. Unemployment continued to be, by far, the main concern. However, corruption and fraud had gained prominence due to cases such as the Gürtel, Bárcenas or Púnica, which wore down Rajoy's PP. Economic problems completed the podium. The emergence of Podemos and Ciudadanos finished shaking up the two-party system.

Half a year later, in 2016, citizens returned to the polls without a government formed. Unemployment, corruptionand the economy remained at the forefront, while healthcare gained weight due to cuts. Institutional deadlock and electoral fatigue marked an unprecedented campaign with a caretaker government for months.

In 2019, corruption lost strength, but unemployment and political disaffection persisted. The motion of no confidence by Pedro Sánchez, the emergence of Vox and the Procés marked the April election. The November repeat came due to the failure of the investiture negotiations. Politicians and parties were already the second biggest concern, behind unemployment.

In 2023, healthcare, political problems, and the behavior of leaders shared the spotlight with unemployment. Polarization and the PP's pacts with Vox marked a campaign brought forward to July by Pedro Sánchez after the defeat of the left in the municipal and regional elections.

Now, in 2026, the landscape has changed: housing has become the main public concern, ahead of unemployment and the economy. The rising cost of rent and home purchases, difficulties with emancipation, and the shortage of affordable housing have turned the residential emergency into a cross-cutting issue. Immigration and healthcare complete the map of concerns that will reach the polls this 29-N. A snapshot that shows how priorities have evolved over two decades, from insecurity and unemployment to access to housing and the cost of living.