How will the Castanyada be: will we have to wear short sleeves or will it be cold, like the ones of a lifetime? This is what the maps say

BarcelonaUntil a few years ago, the Castanyada had always been associated with the cold. A night that invited people to eat chestnuts or panellets by the fire to warm up from the pre-winter chill. But, for some time now, this is no longer the case. With the climate crisis and global warming, temperatures keep rising, and most of the recent Castanyadas have been warm for the time of year, with little cold at night and, even, short-sleeved or shirt-sleeve afternoons for All Saints' Day.

Therefore, the question is clear: will this Castanyada be warm again or will it be cold, like the ones from the old days? We are coming from the longest and warmest summer in history, and this October the rains and downpours have been very significant and torrential due to all this heat also accumulated in the sea. Below, we break down what the maps indicate regarding temperatures and rain for the Castanyada weekend. A forecast that we will be updating until the date arrives.

The weather forecast for the Castanyada

According to the different medium-term meteorological models, right now everything seems to indicate that we will have normal temperatures for the time of year throughout the Castanyada weekend. At the beginning of the week there will be a warm spike at midday, but we will arrive at the event with a new drop in thermometers.

Therefore, this would translate into a very cool or cold environment during the night of the Castanyada. No marked or wintry cold is expected, not by any means, but it does seem that the meteorological tradition of years past, which has been so rare to see lately, will be fulfilled. So everything suggests that sweaters and jackets will be necessary. Lows would drop below 10 °C in much of the pre-coastal area and the interior, without ruling out some weak frosts in the Pyrenees. On the coast, the feeling of cold will also be evident, especially late at night. During the day, the environment would be between cool and mild throughout the All Saints' weekend, with highs typical for these dates that would range between 16 °C and 22 °C.

Regarding precipitation, we would still mostly remain under the effects of the anticyclone. However, the indirect influence of some Atlantic fronts would persist, which would hardly leave any precipitation in Catalonia, with the passage of some harmless bands of clouds. With current maps, showers could indeed fall in the south of the Valencian Community and in the Balearic Islands, with a cooler wind blowing from the northeast. In any case, there are still days to go and everything must be confirmed and narrowed down.

What has the weather been like during the last Castanyades?

According to open historical data from Meteocat, recent years have been marked by mostly warm Castanyades, with values above average and little cold. Obviously, there have been exceptions, but this situation has become even more pronounced over the last decade. The warmest Castanyada recorded recently was that of 2022, with nearly 3.5°C above the average for the country as a whole, an extraordinary anomaly. That year, the Fabra Observatory in Barcelona—with data since 1914—recorded the warmest Castanyada night in its history, with a minimum of nearly 17°C.

These data contrast especially when compared with those from the middle of the last century, when even frosts were frequent outside the Pyrenees at this point in autumn. This same observatory recorded its highest maximum temperature on an All Saints' Day last year since records began, reaching up to 23.3°C.

On the other hand, regarding precipitation, there has been a bit of everything and more variability in recent years. Notable is 2024, when we were under the effects of the DANA that caused the tragic and historic rains in Valencia, just two days before the Castanyada. That year, instability remained throughout the long All Saints' Day weekend across the Catalan Countries.