Three out of every four Spaniards regret that Puigdemont can return from exile

BarcelonaNine years have passed since Carles Puigdemont headed into exile to evade the State's judicial repression following the 1-O referendum. On the verge of returning to Catalonia thanks to the amnesty law approved two years ago in Congress—and, above all, the decision of the Court of Justice of the European Union this summer—, the 130th president of the Generalitat will find a country quite different from the one that existed when he left, with a socialist president at Plaça Sant Jaume and an independentist far-right that is growing by shrinking his political space. But what will not have changed is the animosity felt towards him by the citizens of the State. The ARA survey, conducted by YouGov, highlights that 72% of Spaniards, nearly three out of every four, consider Puigdemont's return to be “bad news”.

The Junts leader has already said that he will not return during the campaign because he does not want to mix the current electoral moment with a return that he aspires to be institutional. He could do so, like former ministers Toni Comín and Lluís Puig, once judge Pablo Llarena has lifted the arrest warrant against him and closed the summary proceedings, although there is still one pending procedure: the Supreme Court would have to officially decree that the amnesty is granted to all three, a decision that judge Manuel Marchena already has on his table and that could arrive precisely during the electoral campaign. In a recent interview with ARA, Puig acknowledged, in fact, that “the persecution has always been centered on the figure and the name of President Puigdemont”.

Although the PSOE and especially Pedro Sánchez have made a 180-degree turn regarding Puigdemont –whom they have returned to considering a political interlocutor this term–, his voters mostly think that the return from exile will not be positive. Only 19% of socialist supporters believe it is “good news”, compared to 57% who believe the opposite. Voters of the Broad Front, the candidacy heir to the other party currently in the Spanish government, follow the same pattern. 28% see the return as positive and 45% believe it will be negative. On the right side of the parliamentary spectrum, there is practically unanimity. 95% of Vox voters and 90% of PP voters consider Carles Puigdemont's return to Catalonia bad news. Since the survey was conducted nationwide, to predict how the general elections would turn out if they were held today, there are not enough cases of voters from Catalan parties to conclude what their position is on the subject.

The rejection of Puigdemont's figure by voters and also leaders of the state-wide parties is not necessarily bad news for the Junts leader. In fact, Junts is running in these elections precisely to denounce the attitude of the PSOE and the PP –and, evidently, of Vox– towards Catalonia and, if it depends on them, they have already said that they will not invest either Alberto Núñez Feijóo or Pedro Sánchez. It is true that they do not close the door to another socialist candidate, but only if they “put Catalonia at the center”.

Over time, it has become less common than before for there to be anyone threatening Puigdemont atop an army tank of the army, for a doll dressed as the former president to be shot or for the song to be sung at some rallies Puigdemont, we're going to put you in prison. But over the last nine years, it has become evident that the attacks against him have not led to a resounding condemnation from the political world. On the contrary, they have often been applauded.

The end of the Procés

The legislature that has just ended began precisely with daily protests in front of the PSOE headquarters for having agreed on the amnesty with Junts. Today, this motive continues to be a source of anger for a part of the Spanish citizenry with Pedro Sánchez, who is one of those who will most celebrate that the former president does not return until after the elections. The survey also observes that the majority of the State's citizens are against the amnesty: if we exclude the Catalans, 64% reject it and only 17% are in favor. In Catalonia, on the other hand, the situation is the reverse. 52% are in favor and 30% are not – 18% do not show a defined position.

The survey also observes that the majority of the State's citizens are against the amnesty: if we exclude the Catalans, 64% reject it and only 17% are in favor. In Catalonia, on the other hand, the situation is the reverse: 52% are in favor and 30% are against it, while 18% do not have a defined position.

Among PP and Vox voters, there is practically unanimity again, although the percentage is slightly lower than the rejection Puigdemont generates among them: in both cases, 89% reject the amnesty. On the other hand, the voters who show support for the measure are the majority in both the PSOE and the Broad Front, although in neither case do the supporters reach 50%.

Although there is no exact date –the arrival of Illa at the Generalitat, the pacts to invest Pedro Sánchez, the decline of the independence movement at the polls...–, the general consensus is that the historical stage known as the 'Procés' (the Process) has ended, even though the door is left open to channel a new push or negotiation with the State regarding independence in the future. With the amnesty completed, the demands of the pro-independence parties are focused on issues such as the financing model, investments in infrastructure, or the protection of the Catalan language. The official status of Catalan in the European Union is one of the issues agreed upon by Junts with the PSOE that will not have materialized –nor will the singular financing agreed with ERC–, but in linguistic matters, the use of Catalan in the Congress of Deputies was made possible.

A future PP and Vox government has already made it explicit that it will repeal this option from the lower house's regulations to put an end to the blinders in Congress. The ARA survey confirms that this decision is controversial. In Catalonia, support is very high –at 77%–, but in the rest of the State, 42% of citizens are in favor and 48% are against it.