Blocus: Catalonia, on alert for an unclassifiable phenomenon

BarcelonaIt says a lot about how new a social movement is that it cannot be classified right now. Not even that it can be called a movement, or even be social. The Mossos d'Esquadra speak of Blocus as a phenomenon. They discovered it at the beginning of last week, shortly before riots that exceeded their expectations of violence. Since Saturday, they have been analyzing them in depth: the profile of the detainees, the users who were inciting these groups, the accounts that were calling for new protests... And in the last few hours they have carried out arrests in record time. For the moment, the police have not identified any clear pattern.

The Mossos are still not entirely clear on what Blocus is. They speak of a phenomenon because it is neither a mobilization nor a protest. Nothing concrete is being claimed. It is not violent extremism either. The police have spoken with the intelligence services of various countries such as Germany, Italy, or Spain itself, and at this moment, they all agree on the same diagnosis. All except France, where it is detected that there is an ideological basis of educational demands. Precisely because of its novelty, with Blocus, the Mossos are considering changing the items they normally use to predict if a demonstration will be violent.

The Mossos' specialists do not believe there is an organization behind Blocus. According to police sources, there is a certain organization regarding how, where, and when the looting should take place, but they do not detect a hierarchy or structure behind it. In fact, the agitators arrested so far have no relation to each other and are not computer experts. They also do not have records for radicalism. They are young, police sources state, like many others. Some are founders of groups, others are amplifiers of the message, and many are moved by a concept as well-known currently as FOMO (fear of missing out, that is, the fear of missing out on something). "It is not an organization, we are not arresting affiliates. Ten days ago [the Catalan Blocus] did not exist," police sources state. In fact, posters in Spanish have been seen, but with estelades, anarchist symbols, and other symbology that, when grouped, has no logic whatsoever.

The new calls for protest

For now, however, the demonstration called by various profiles this Saturday afternoon in the center of Barcelona, coinciding with the Castanyada, is considered at a level of 4 out of 4. There has not been a demonstration with such a high risk since the protests over the imprisonment of Pablo Hasél in the year 2021. There are three called: one around Plaça Catalunya, another on Passeig de Gràcia (near Casa Milà), and one on Passeig Lluís Companys. The police operation will be at maximum capacity, with mass identifications starting at 3 PM – on Saturday 300 identifications were already made before the disturbances – and the removal of dangerous objects or balaclavas. And what if a boy comes with a Halloween mask? The Blocus groups are encouraging those summoned to wear one to infiltrate among the population. The police will assess it on a case-by-case basis, but they may be confiscated if the officers deem it appropriate. In general, the Mossos are asking for calm and for no one to stop doing things, from walking through the city center to opening their shop.

Although Barcelona will be the focus of attention this weekend, there are more than ten Blocus demonstrations called in various parts of Catalonia. It is not possible to speak, however, of exact figures, since the calls appear and disappear with ease on social media. On Friday afternoon, there were calls to gather in Blanes, Terrassa, Reus, and el Vendrell, and the Mossos set up devices and carried out prior identifications, although there were no incidents. On Saturday, there are also some planned in Lleida, Badalona, Igualada, Mataró, Girona, Figueres, Platja d'Aro, Martorell, and Gavà.

They are posters created with AI that circulate on social media – more than a hundred have been detected since Saturday –, but the authorities do not believe they imply as high a risk as in Barcelona and they are valued with a risk of 2 out of 4; the level that the protest last Saturday initially had and which they believe, before the riots spread, was the appropriate forecast. The Mossos reached this conclusion after seeing that many of the calls these days have been ghost ones, like the one on Thursday in Vic. Furthermore, most of these posters have very few interactions on social media. One on TikTok received three likes.

In addition, the police have already closed four Telegram groups after turning to, just as ARA explained, to the Intelligence Centre against Terrorism and Organized Crime and using anti-terrorist methods. The Mossos are now monitoring ten messaging groups (they want to keep some active to know what is being said in them), but they are all practically inactive. "They only send emojis," notes one of the monitoring reports. The Mossos consider that the groups are the true indicator of whether a protest will have a following, rather than the interactions a post might have on TikTok.

The algorithm and virality

The big question is how these contents reached the mobile phones of young people who, eminently, live in the first metropolitan ring. The Mossos have detected that the massive dissemination of this content mostly occurred hours before Saturday's demonstration. Videos from Paris, of young people looting businesses and standing up to the police, went viral, and among these TikTok contents, the calls to action began to appear.

Did anyone amplify it? Was it the algorithm by itself? Did AI play any role? These are questions the Mossos are asking themselves and do not yet have an answer to. The police are also looking into whether the recruitment may have been developed through online gaming chats. This is a common dynamic in jihadist radicalization, to give an example. For now, this is not being detected.

Among the open police hypotheses is that of foreign interference or a hybrid action, since the Mossos have been detecting such things for some time. "We don't know. It is a hypothesis that will have to be refuted or confirmed," point out police sources, who add that it will be very difficult to know if it has been an action by a foreign actor. In fact, the Mossos make it clear that it is not their jurisdiction and that there are already state bodies taking care of it.