Elections in Spain? Sánchez, facing the temptation to change plans due to the Maricarmen effect

BarcelonaThe debate surrounding the two housing decrees being voted on this Friday in the Congress of Deputies has left some parties so disoriented that, in recent days, rumors of an imminent electoral call in the State have multiplied in parliamentary circles. It is being talked about in the Spanish lower house, of course, and this Thursday it was also a topic of conversation among the deputies of the Parliament of Catalonia. Not so much because of the vote itself, as because of the urgency that Pedro Sánchez has imposed. With the decrees in force, the Spanish president had one month to validate them in Congress, but he has chosen to turn this very week into a public agora on the right to housing, attempting to corner those who oppose the decrees, PP and Vox, but also Junts.

Pedro Sánchez has denied time and again in recent months that he was considering calling early elections before reaching 2027. His team is aware that the polls are extremely negative for them to repeat at the Moncloa and they have been looking for a long time for a turning point that would allow them to re-enter the game. With corruption, the migration crisis in Ceuta, and even the amnesty as topics that have capitalized the public debate, the PSOE was destined for little more than survival. But what if it is the housing emergency that capitalizes the public debate from now on?

"Until now, the right was much more mobilized," points out Jordi Muñoz, a professor of political science at the University of Barcelona. There are numerous studies that highlight the importance of the context when people go to vote, of the most pressing current issues. "And there are some that tend to benefit right-wing parties, such as security or immigration, and others that have a similar effect on left-wing ones, such as redistribution and public services," explains Muñoz. In the latest barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), which consolidates housing as the main concern of the country's citizens, the differences between voters are clear: for those of the PSOE (38%) and Sumar (51%), there is no more relevant problem than that of housing, while for those of the PP (28%) and Vox (19%), it occupies the second and third position respectively behind the economy in the case of the Popular Party and immigration and the Sánchez government in the case of the far-right.

The problem that the polls detect for the left is precisely one of demobilization. "When citizens are asked who is best at solving the housing issue, it is not the PP and Vox who come out on top, but the left-wing parties," points out Toni Rodon, associate professor of political science at Pompeu Fabra University. However, a recent study led by political scientist Pablo Simón for Carlos III University concludes that, in general, no party is considered efficient in this battle. It is true that the PSOE and Sumar are the two best rated, but with a score of 3.7 (out of 10) and 3.5; above the PP (3.4) and Vox (3.1). In any case, the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal has acted as a trigger to forcefully bring onto the political agenda a subject that has been worrying families for a long time.

Precisely this week, a new CIS study on housing has arrived as a timely coincidence for the Spanish government. The main conclusion is that 86% of citizens believe that access to decent housing is not guaranteed for everyone (18% believe it is not guaranteed for anyone) and 83% are of the opinion that access to first-time housing will remain just as difficult or even worse in the future. These are opinions that are being recorded after eight years of Sánchez at the head of the Spanish government, but which, nevertheless, could offer him a competitive advantage over his rivals.

"It is clear that social policy is the property of the left and that order and security are those of the right. But in the current context, that is to lose focus on what is happening," explains Lluís Orriols, a professor at Carlos III University. "We are not talking about social policy but about social disenchantment, an angry public opinion that ends up politicizing a personal situation —that of Maricarmen— which is very adverse," he adds. Orriols is convinced that in the face of an event that generates so much social unrest, "governments end up coming off badly," because "we are not talking only about housing, but about an economic problem, about the fact that people are not making ends meet."

Factors against

In the same vein, Muñoz highlights that there are three factors that could harm the coalition executive. "The first, that if it does not succeed with the decrees, people could identify that it is not useful for resolving the housing issue. The second, that it is unknown how long it can last as a top topic on the agenda and whether it will continue when the elections arrive. And, the third, that the division within the government could take its toll on both PSOE and Sumar". In this sense, Orriols believes that the only way Sumar would have to gain profit from the situation would be by breaking the coalition, an option that the former mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, already proposed a few days ago. Assuming the hypothesis that Sánchez decided to take advantage of the current moment to call elections, the first Sunday to hold them would be November 29.

To the left of the PSOE, the proposals are bolder, such as the automatic renewal of rental contracts or compensation to tenants by landlords if they want them to leave the apartment (included in one of the two decrees being voted on this Friday). "An important part of the PSOE electorate is made up of property owners and, therefore, many have a status quo bias. Many are small property owners who, even if they were not affected by the measures, could see them as dangerous," remarks Rodon. It is true that in order to govern after the elections, the PSOE will need the left again, and it is Sumar and Podemos that are precisely the parties that have suffered the most from the demobilization of the electorate in the last regional elections.

And how might the PP and Vox be experiencing this? Both parties have long been demanding an early election, convinced that this time, yes, the polls will not be wrong and they will add up enough deputies to govern. Orriols acknowledges that Ceuta was a topic that wore down the Spanish government more, but that the shift to the housing crisis does not harm the PP as much as it does Vox. "At this point, I do not believe the PP is as worried about the wear and tear of the PSOE, which is already very great, but rather about the competition with Vox," he indicates. And, although the far right also tries to link immigration with the growth of rental prices, the relationship is more difficult for them to establish than between immigration and crime, a terrain they have been cultivating for a long time.

The key to the early election is held by only one person. And this Friday he will have a new reason to evaluate whether to call the Spanish people to the polls.