Housing as a plebiscite: does calling early elections benefit Sánchez?

BarcelonaThe debate surrounding the two housing decrees that were voted on this Friday in the Congress of Deputies has left some parties so disoriented that in recent days, rumors of an imminent electoral call in the State have multiplied in parliamentary circles. For the second time in recent years, Pedro Sánchez has initiated a period of reflection, now to decide if the time has come to call early elections. Several sources connected to the Moncloa and consulted by the ARA acknowledge that it is a scenario that is on the table. The first available Sunday would be November 29.

The bewilderment of the groups has not been so much due to the vote itself on Friday as to the urgency imposed by Pedro Sánchez. With the decrees in force, the Spanish president had one month to validate them in Congress, but he chose to turn this week into a public agora on the right to housing, trying to corner those who oppose the decrees – the PP and Vox but also Junts–. The decrees have ended up failing.

In recent months, Pedro Sánchez has denied time and again that he was considering calling early elections before reaching 2027. His team is aware that the polls are extremely unfavorable for them to repeat at the Moncloa and for some time they have been looking for a turning point that would allow the Socialists to get back into the game. With corruption, the migration crisis in Ceuta, and even the amnesty as topics that have capitalized the public debate, the PSOE was destined for little more than survival. But what could happen if it is the housing emergency that capitalizes the public debate from now on? Can Sánchez have a more hopeful electoral context in this case?

"Until now, the right wing was much more mobilized," points out Jordi Muñoz, a professor of political science at the University of Barcelona. There are numerous studies that highlight the importance of context when people go to vote, and of the most pressing current affairs. "And there are some that tend to benefit right-wing parties, such as security or immigration, and others that have a similar effect on left-wing ones, such as redistribution and public services," explains Muñoz. In the latest barometer from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), which consolidates housing as the main concern of the state's citizens, the differences between voters are clear: for those of the PSOE (28.4%) and Sumar (39.2%), there is no more relevant problem than housing, while for those of the PP (20.4%) and Vox (22.9%), it occupies the second and third position respectively behind the economy in the case of the Popular Party and also behind immigration in the case of the far right.

The problem that polls detect for the left is precisely one of demobilization. "When citizens are asked about who is best at solving the housing issue, it is not the PP and Vox that come out on top, but the left-wing parties," points out Toni Rodon, an associate professor of political science at Pompeu Fabra University. A recent study led by political scientist Pablo Simón for the Carlos III University concludes, however, that, in general, no party is considered efficient in this battle. It is true that the PSOE and Sumar are the two best rated, but with a score of 3.7 (out of 10) and 3.5; above the PP (3.4) and Vox (3.1). In any case, the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal has acted as a trigger to forcefully bring onto the political agenda a topic that has worried families for a long time.

Precisely this week a new CIS study on housing has arrived as a timely coincidence for the Spanish government. The main conclusion is that 86% of citizens believe that access to decent housing is not guaranteed for everyone (18% believe it is not guaranteed for anyone) and 83% are of the opinion that access to a first home will remain just as difficult or even worse in the future. These are opinions recorded after eight years of Sánchez at the head of the Spanish government, yet, despite this, they may offer him a competitive advantage over his rivals.

"It is clear that social policy is the property of the left and that order and security are the property of the right. But in the current context, this is blurring what is happening –explains Lluís Orriols, professor at the Universidad Carlos III–. We are not talking about social policy but about social disenchantment, an angry public opinion that ends up politicizing a personal situation —that of Maricarmen— which is very adverse". Orriols is convinced that, in the face of an event that generates so much social unrest, "governments end up coming out badly", because "it is not just about housing, but about an economic problem, the fact that people are not making ends meet".

Factors against

In the same vein, Muñoz underlines that there are three factors that could harm the coalition executive. "The first, that if it does not succeed with the decrees, people could identify that it is not useful for resolving the housing issue. The second, that it is unknown how long it can last as a top topic on the agenda and if it will continue when the elections arrive. And, the third, that the division within the government could take its toll on both the PSOE and Sumar". In this sense, Orriols believes that the only way Sumar would have to profit from the situation would be by breaking the coalition, an option that was already proposed a few days ago by the former mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau.

To the left of the PSOE, the proposals are bolder, such as the automatic renewal of rental contracts or compensation to tenants by landlords if they want them to leave the apartment (included in one of the two decrees being voted on this Friday). "A significant part of the PSOE's electorate is made up of property owners and, therefore, many have a bias towards status quo. Many are small landlords who, even if they were not affected by the measures, could see them as dangerous," remarks Rodon. It is true that in order to govern after the elections, the PSOE will once again need the left, and it is Sumar and Podemos that have precisely suffered the most from the demobilization of the electorate in the last regional elections.

And how are the PP and Vox experiencing this? Both parties have long been demanding an early election, convinced that this time, yes, the polls will not be wrong and they will gather enough deputies to govern. Orriols acknowledges that Ceuta is an issue that wears down the Spanish government more, but the shift to the housing crisis does not harm the PP as much as it does Vox. "At this point, I don't think the PP is as concerned about the wear and tear of the PSOE, which is already very significant, as it is about the competition with Vox," he indicates. And, although the far right also tries to link immigration with the rise in rental prices, the connection is more difficult for them to establish than between immigration and crime, a terrain they have been cultivating for a long time.

The key to the early election lies with only one person. And these days, he will have a new reason to evaluate whether to call the Spaniards to the polls.