What do the polls for the Spanish elections of November 29 say? Simulation of the electoral results

BarcelonaThe Spanish elections of November 29 arrive with a snapshot that is repeated in practically all private polls: the PP is the leading force, the PSOE the second, and Vox consolidates in third position. In the image above, you can check which party would win in each province according to the compilation of the polls that have been conducted so far.

Specifically, the map of the 52 provincial constituencies, like the hemicycle you will find below this paragraph, has been made with a projection of results elaborated based on the trend marked by the polls published by the main polling companies in recent months. Both graphics simulate the probable results according to the polls, and the hemicycle that we offer you below indicates how the Congress would look according to the trend indicated by the polls. These projections, prepared by the political scientist Jordi Muñoz, give more weight to the most recent polls and less to the older ones.

What each of the main polls indicates

The differences between the various polls lie in the magnitude of the lead held by the Popular Party and, above all, in how that translates into seats. Private projections place the PP and Vox above an absolute majority. The CIS, however, paints a very different scenario: its October barometer places the PSOE almost twelve points ahead of the PP. Below you can see the forecasts for seats and vote percentage from the main polls that have been published.

The PP leads the private polls

The GESOP poll for El Periódico, based on 1,000 interviews conducted between October 6 and 8, places the PP in the lead, with between 121 and 125 seats; the PSOE would obtain between 108 and 112, and Vox, between 68 and 72. The sum of the two parties would reach 189-197 deputies, above the absolute majority. In the same vein, the Sigma Dos survey for El Mundo, published on October 26 based on 3,122 interviews conducted between October 8 and 22, attributes to the PP, in alliance with UPN, a central estimate of 128 seats, compared to 107 for the PSOE and 68 for Vox. In terms of vote percentage, the populars would obtain 30.6%, the socialists 26.1%, and Vox 19.9%. The PP, in alliance with UPN, and Vox would total 196 seats in the most likely scenario.

The 40dB poll for El País and SER, published on October 9 and prepared based on 800 interviews conducted on the 7th and 8th, places the PP at 31.9% of the votes, compared to 28.1% for the PSOE and 18.9% for Vox. The seat projection attributes between 123 and 140 deputies to the populars, between 105 and 117 to the socialists, and between 63 and 74 to Vox. For its part, the Sociométrica survey for El Español, with 1,000 interviews conducted on October 10 and 11, projects 141 seats for the PP, 104 for the PSOE, and 64 for Vox. In terms of vote percentage, the populars would obtain 32.6%, the socialists 26.2%, and Vox 18.8%. The sum of the PP and Vox would reach 205 deputies, and with the UPN seat, 206.

This trend was already taking shape in the summer. The Ipsos survey for La Vanguardia, conducted between June 16 and 29, projected 132 deputies for the PP, 111 for the PSOE, and 64 for Vox. The sum of the two parties reached 196 seats. In October, GAD3 projected for Abc 133 deputies for the PP, 107 for the PSOE, and 65 for Vox. In terms of vote percentage, the populars would obtain 31.4%, the socialists 26.4%, and Vox 18.2%. The fieldwork was done in October and the poll was published on the 12th.

The Ateneo del Dato survey for Eldiario.es, published on October 25, also places the PP in the lead, with 31.1% of the votes, compared to 27.6% for the PSOE and 19.8% for Vox. The poll, conducted between October 20 and 22 with 2,000 interviews, attributes 6.8% of the votes to the Broad Front and 2.7% to Podemos. According to this estimate, the distance between the right and left blocs has reduced compared to the previous survey, but it remains at 13.8 points.

Vox, the big change compared to 2023

The growth of Vox is one of the clearest movements in the polls. In the general elections of July 2023, it obtained 12.4% of the votes and 33 seats. Now, recent polls attribute between 18.8% and 19.9% of the votes to it. Sociométrica places it at 18.8%; 40dB and GESOP at 18.9%; Ateneo del Dato at 19.8%, and Sigma Dos at 19.9%. The projection of seats also reflects this growth: GESOP attributes between 68 and 72 deputies to it, 40dB gives it 66, and Sigma Dos places the central estimate at 68.

The 40dB poll for El País and SER places the PP at 31.9% of the votes, the PSOE at 28.1%, and Vox at 18.9%. The PP and Vox would total 50.8% of the votes; if the 1.8% from S'ha Acabat la Festa (SALF) is added, the right-wing bloc would reach 52.6%, ahead of the 35.7% that the PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would total.

The right-wing exceeds the absolute majority in the projections

The polls projecting seats place the PP and Vox above the 176 deputies needed for an absolute majority. GESOP attributes between 189 and 197 seats to them; 40dB, between 186 and 214, and Sigma Dos places the most likely scenario at 196 seats for the PP in alliance with UPN and Vox. Sociométrica projects 205 seats for the PP and Vox. The estimates vary, but all these projections give an absolute majority to the PP and Vox.

The NC Report poll published by La Razón on October 7 is one of the most favorable to this bloc: it gives the PP between 145 and 147 deputies and Vox between 61 and 63. The sum of the PP and Vox would be between 206 and 210 seats.

The PSOE is not recovering in the private polls

The most recent polls draw an uneven situation for the PSOE. The 40dB poll attributes between 105 and 117 seats and 28.1% of the votes to it, while GESOP places it between 108 and 112 deputies, with 26.1% of the ballots. Sigma Dos attributes a central estimate of 107 seats and 26.1% of the votes; Sociométrica, 104 deputies and 26.2%, and Ateneo del Dato, 27.6% of the ballots. Although the PSOE is narrowing the gap in some estimates, none of these projections place it ahead of the PP.

The differences between the polls also prevent speaking of a clear trend of recovery. GESOP places the conservatives only 2.6 points ahead of the socialists, the shortest distance this polling company has recorded during the legislative term. In contrast, Sigma Dos reduces the PP's lead to 4.5 points, after it was 6.2 points in the previous wave. The available data, therefore, point to a reduction in the distance between the two main parties in the latest Sigma Dos poll, but not to a consolidated comeback of the PSOE.

The latest IMOP poll for El Confidencial, published on October 23rd, points, however, to a reduction of the distance between the two blocs. In fifteen days, the PP and Vox have lost six seats in total and stand at 195, while the PSOE, the Broad Front, Podemos and Forward Andalusia have gained six and reached 129. Despite this change, the right would maintain an absolute majority of 19 seats above the 176 required. The group of parties that supported the investiture of Pedro Sánchez in 2023 would total 155 deputies, 24 fewer than the 179 that voted in favor of his investiture.

The CIS, the exception

The first barometer from the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) following the housing protests catapults the PSOE, which gains three points compared to September and stands at 34% of the vote. The PP, on the other hand, loses 3.3 points and falls to 22.2%, meaning the gap between the two major Spanish parties widens to 11.8 points. Vox grows by half a point, to 17.1%, and reduces the gap with the conservatives to 5.1 points.

The survey also places Sumar, rebranded as the Broad Front, at 6.1% of the vote, Podemos at 3.1%, and ERC at 3%. The picture contrasts with that of private polls, which keep the PP in the lead and place Vox as the third force, while the CIS predicts a wide gap between socialists and conservatives.

The future of the Sumar and Podemos space

To the left of the PSOE, negotiations to present a unified state candidacy have failed. The Broad Front – formed by United Left, Comuns, Más Madrid, and Sumar Movement – and Podemos did not reach an agreement before the deadline for registering electoral coalitions expired on October 16. Therefore, both options will compete separately in most constituencies, although there are territorial agreements, such as that of the Broad Front with Podemos in the Canary Islands and that of Compromís with the Broad Front in the Valencian Community. In Catalonia, Podemos will not present its own candidacy and will support the ERC list, headed by Gabriel Rufián, by virtue of a collaboration agreement between the two formations.

Surveys draw different scenarios for the space located to the left of the PSOE. In the 40dB poll for El País and SER, Sumar obtains 5.3% of the votes and Podemos 2.3%; GESOP attributes 8% of the votes to the Broad Front and 2.6% to Podemos, while Sigma Dos places the Broad Front at 7.4% and Podemos at 2.8%. Ateneo del Dato, for its part, attributes 6.8% and 2.7% to them, respectively. These estimates correspond to different candidacy scenarios and do not allow for the direct calculation of the result of a joint candidacy. In Catalonia, moreover, the figures for Podemos separately do not reflect the collaboration agreement with ERC.

What could happen in Catalonia?

Catalonia could be relevant in the final distribution of seats. The GESOP poll places ERC between 9 and 11 deputies and Junts between 4 and 6. According to this survey, 12.5% of those who voted for Junts in 2023 would now opt for ERC, while 14.5% of Republican voters from the last general election would lean towards the PSOE. Junts faces the elections with Miriam Nogueras as candidate, and ERC has confirmed Gabriel Rufián as head of the list for Barcelona. Furthermore, Rufián will campaign with Podemos outside Catalonia.

The second wave of the Political Opinion Barometer of the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), published on October 14, predicts that the PSC would be the force with the most seats in Catalonia in a general election, with between 18 and 19 deputies, equaling the result it obtained in 2023. ERC would be in second position, with between 10 and 11 deputies, followed by the PP, with 6 or 7, and Vox, with 5 or 6. Junts would remain behind, with between 4 and 5 seats, while Sumar would obtain between 2 and 3 and Podemos would not obtain any.

The CEO's fieldwork was conducted between September 1 and October 5, with 2,000 interviews, so the projection does not incorporate subsequent electoral agreements between ERC and Podemos nor the CUP's decision not to run in the elections. The July barometer already placed the PSC in the lead, with between 17 and 18 deputies, and maintained ERC between 10 and 11. Both waves point, therefore, to a continuity in socialist leadership and republican representation, while the distribution of the seats of the other forces presents more variations.

Where would the votes for Aliança Catalana go?

Aliança Catalana will not appear on the November 29th ballots. The CEO studied what its voters would do in a general election: 23% would opt for Junts and 22% for Vox. The data point to a possible dual vote: electors who would choose Aliança Catalana in a Parliament election but would vote for Junts or Vox in a general election.