The PSC would win the Spanish and Catalan elections with ERC and Aliança fighting for second place

BarcelonaThe PSC would win the Spanish elections again as it did in 2023, with an incontestable victory like the one it achieved three years ago. Salvador Illa's party would also win the parliamentary elections, but with a narrower margin than in 2024, with ERC and Aliança Catalana fighting for second place. This is shown by the second CEO barometer of 2026, which was presented this Wednesday with a survey conducted between September 1 and October 5, just the day before Pedro Sánchez called early elections.

In Congress, the candidacy led by the minister and former mayor of Barcelona, Jordi Hereu, would be the winner of the elections, reaffirming the last victory. The Socialists would revalidate the 19 seats they already achieved in 2023. The Republicans would rise to second place with a range of 10 to 11 seats (they now have 7), to the detriment of the Comuns, who would suffer a huge defeat, going from 7 seats to 2 or 3. The third force would be the PP, which would maintain its six representatives or win one more. Junts, which had 7, could lose one or two, while Vox would rise from 2 to 5 or 6. The CUP, which has agreed not to run in the elections, could have achieved one, while Podemos, alone, would not add any, although the agreement with ERC will mean it does not compete in Catalonia.

In the Catalan elections, the CEO draws a scenario similar to that of three months ago. The PSC remains in first position, but suffers a decline compared to 2024 and goes from 42 seats to 33 or 35, in a downward trend because the July survey gave it a range of between 36 and 38 representatives. ERC and Aliança would fight for second place, neck and neck, with the Republicans slightly ahead with 24 or 26 seats, and Sílvia Orriols' party with 23 to 25. Both parties maintain the same results as in the last barometer of the public body.

Junts would stop the transfer of voters towards Aliança and would recover between two and four with 18 or 20 representatives, when in July the CEO gave it between 16 and 18. Be that as it may, the Junts members would lose half of their votes in relation to the last elections, when they achieved 35. PP and Vox would tie in fifth position with 12 or 13 parliamentarians, with a slight decrease for the Popular Party and a testimonial increase for Santiago Abascal's formation. Comuns (6) and CUP (4) would repeat, more or less, the same results as in 2024.

Regarding the assessment of political leaders, Salvador Illa continues to be the preferred choice for President of the Generalitat with 20% support, two points lower than in July. The president of Esquerra, Oriol Junqueras, snatches second place from the top leader of Aliança Catalana, Sílvia Orriols, going from 5% to 16%. The leader of the Islamophobic party drops to third place with 13%, which is still five points up from three months ago. The leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, is fourth in the preference of Catalans for the presidency of the Generalitat (11%), doubling the 5% of the last barometer.