Not two fingers of forehead

The day has begun with a protest by farmers, who as I speak to you are heading down towards Barcelona in columns from various points in the country with the idea of meeting at the capital at noon, specifically in Plaça Sant Jaume. It is not an isolated protest, but the continuation of the farmers' revolt, now justified by the rise in diesel prices, which is eating into their margins. But they are not only protesting about the price of fuel or phytosanitary products or fertilizers. They are complaining, as they have been for decades, about bureaucratic procedures, which can outlast different governments without anything changing. A farmer said this morning on TV3 that at the moment “profitability is zero, it is impossible to live off it”. At today's protest, a variation of “Either farming or death” was seen, which is “Either farming or fire”, in the sense that the country will burn due to fires if no one can stay to live off the land and look after the landscape. Certainly, if the farmers fall, everything falls. And then, the question: who has the capacity to satisfy their demands? If we would have enough with sovereignty, imagine with autonomy.

Meanwhile, time is running out for the left (about 48 hours remain) to ensure that the Broad Front, which is currently formed by Podemos in Spain and the Republican Left in Catalonia, encompasses everything that exists to the left of the PSOE.

In fact, yesterday Esquerra and Gabriel Rufián contradicted each other. The party spokesperson Isaac Albert said that they will "never be part of the Broad Front" and Rufián said that he will continue working to create a unitary list with the Comuns. And, aware of this position of Rufián, Ada Colau said this morning on TV3 that she is willing to cede her leadership if there is someone who has more consensus. And, even, to change the name of the Broad Front.

“I have been proposed as a candidate for the presidency as a consensus person, because I understand that I am considered a person who can help build alliances and with experience both as an activist and in the institution in the defense of the right to housing, but beyond who the presidential candidate may be, there is room for everyone here, I insist. There is space and prominence for everyone. And, therefore, this cannot be the problem. And I have also said it very clearly: if at some point we add many other formations to the Broad Front and another person is found who is even more of a consensus candidate, I will be delighted to support them. Just as I supported Gabriel Rufián at the time and encouraged him to take the step and, unfortunately, he did not want to, but here it is about us people being at the service of the project”.

This unity, this artifact, it is already clear that it will not be possible. And, if it is possible, it will hardly fly. Podemos and Sumar have spent a legislative term fighting, so they have neither been able to nor have they added up, and the Comuns, the CUP, and Esquerra have not wanted to know anything about alliances in Catalonia. Besides, if in any election the tactical vote for the PSOE can work to stop the PP-Vox, it is this one.

Above all, I highly recommend a thread by political scientist Jordi Muñoz, a collaborator of this house. This morning he posted a thread of tweets on X, and the simulator of all the polls tells him that things would have to change a lot (or the polls would have to be very wrong) for PP+Vox not to have an absolute majority, because now the distance between blocs is much greater than in 2023. If you want to see what we are talking about, look at this map of how the vote could end up by province on the night of November 29:

And Muñoz says: “In general, I think they have been discussing for a long time how votes should be distributed among the left, when the fundamental problem is that there are not enough left-wing votes to counteract the reactionary wave”. And he says about the parties: “They often forget that the agreements leaders may make are one thing, and what the voters will do afterwards is another, as they are not pawns in their chess games, but have their own agenda”.

Good morning.