The danger of Sánchez and Illa's strategy against the far right

BarcelonaThere is no infallible manual for fighting against the far right, and despite the different recipes applied, it continues to grow almost everywhere. As in medicine, and just as the prospectuses themselves warn, each case is different and the remedies have an element of unpredictability depending on the context. However, the political scientists consulted by ARA agree that the strategy of Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa to constantly confront the far right and set themselves up as the only alternative to Vox and Aliança Catalana can have serious side effects, both for their own political health and for democracy in general.

The PSOE and the PSC repeat like a mantra that in the next Spanish elections there are only two possible options to choose from: Pedro Sánchez or the far right. They ignore the nuances and put the PP and Vox in the same bag, in addition to constantly warning about the risks that a far-right landing in the Moncloa could cause. One of the socialist leaders who is exploiting this approach the most is the president of the Generalitat at a national level and especially against Aliança Catalana. He maintains a harsh tone against Sílvia Orriols and often engages in conflict – and publicizes it on social media – against the Ripoll mayor's party, which now only has two deputies in Parliament, but which the polls predict will have a great rise.

UB political science professor Xavier Torrens explains that the message of fear is not new in politics and that it is common for leaders to seek to win voters by alerting them to what could happen if another party arrives or remains in power. In fact, the expert recalls that the PSOE had already opted for this strategy before the birth of Vox, then directed against the PP, but warns that the "problem" is when it is applied against the far right, because these formations thrive on "confrontation" and "polarization", mainly on social media. "It creates a snowball effect that feeds them and ends up benefiting them", points out the author of the book Salvar Catalunya (Pòrtic).

Torrens asserts that "at first it may seem like a strategy that works when it comes to mobilizing voters", but that in the long term it is "counterproductive". "People may be activated the first time [they are alerted to the arrival of the far right], but not the second, third or fourth time", adds the political scientist. In this sense, the researcher at the European think tank CEPS Sophia Russack notes that it is "not enough" to criticize and "be opposed" to the far right, but that "it is necessary to propose and defend one's own measures". Thus, the expert considers that the best strategy for progressive forces, even if they "are very weak and losing power", is to recover the initiative and "not act reactively" to the far right.

On the other hand, Torrens describes as "erroneous" the idea that the growth of the far right only affects the PP and Junts, and that it can benefit left-wing parties because it weakens the political rivals of the traditional right. The expert points out that, especially in cases of such rapid growth as that of Orriols' party, these formations draw from voters of all forces, including the PSC. Torrens gives as an example that when Orriols won in Ripoll it was partly thanks to the fact that she ate into the traditionally socialist electorate, even from areas of the city that are mostly Spanish-speaking.

From Mitterrand to Lula

One of the clearest cases in this regard, pointed out by the director of the European research center Future Policy Lab, Javier Carbonell, is that of former French president François Mitterrand. The socialist leader went so far as to change the electoral law to benefit Jean-Marie Le Pen and divide the right. Mitterrand made it easier for the far right to obtain representation in the National Assembly and, despite this, he lost the legislative elections to the traditional right. Shortly after, when Jacques Chirac arrived at the Élysée, he reinstated the previous electoral regulations. This is a historical case that sources from the PSC itself cite as a counterexample of what should be done to fight against the far right.

On the other hand, the example to follow cited by political scientists is that of the strategy of Lula da Silva, who has just won the elections in Brazil against the far right. The leader of the Workers' Party ordered his ranks to avoid direct confrontation with the far right on social media, even if they considered them to be out-of-place comments or fake news. The goal was to avoid giving them any more exposure, and instead, to promote channels that are not under the algorithms of X, Facebook, or TikTok. A strategy that Sánchez's team has already taken note of and has even contacted the social democratic deputy André Janones to advise them for the upcoming Spanish elections, as reported by the Brazilian media Metrópolis.

Thus, Carbonell qualifies as "key" in the Brazilian elections that Janones launched a WhatsApp channel in favor of Lula that has been very successful and has exceeded ten million followers. The expert highlights that with this digital strategy, the leader of the Workers' Party managed to "increase control" over the campaign's media agenda and avoided ceding this power to the far right. "He won in large part by having avoided the confrontation and polarization that benefits the far right," concludes Torrens.