Alliance is already the anti-Illa party and ERC the anti-Orriols party
BarcelonaThe CEO survey confirms the trends that ARA's already pointed to and which draws a double axis of growth on the Catalan political map: one that concentrates opposition to Salvador Illa's executive, and which is currently held by Aliança Catalana, and another that gathers the left-wing vote considered most useful to stop the far-right, which is currently ERC of the Junqueras-Rufián tandem. To summarize, we can say that Aliança is the anti-Illa party and ERC is the anti-Orriols party. And currently, the survey places these two parties vying for second position in hypothetical parliamentary elections.
Evidently, Aliança's spectacular rise (from 2 deputies to 23-25) is what most notably alters the Catalan political map because it devours Junts, which has a significant identity problem. The impossible balance between being credible opposition in Catalonia and simultaneously having voted for Pedro Sánchez's investiture in Madrid has not quite worked for them in a context of right-wing radicalization. Too convergent for some and too little for others, Puigdemont's party has not quite found its place. And all that remains for them is the trump card of the former president's return to try to climb in the polls. On the other hand, Aliança has the wind at its back, and its success depends on not stepping on too many toes or exposing itself to making mistakes. In this regard, municipal lists are a double-edged sword that they will have to know how to manage.
Curiously, in the midst of a global reactionary wave, Catalonia remains a bastion of the left. Of course, this hegemony is probably also explained by the fact that the PSC and perhaps ERC welcome a part of the centrist electorate from the former CiU who explicitly reject the xenophobic proposals of AC and the ambiguity of Junts. The tripartite government resists, however, thanks to the rise of ERC and, in case of losing the majority by one or two seats (it currently has it by only one), it would still have the CUP card, which shows a resilience worthy of mention. Be that as it may, in practical terms, the tripartite or quadripartite left-wing government, with one correlation of forces or another, appears to be the only operative majority in Catalonia in the coming years. Neither the right-wing one (which according to the CEO is not yet there) nor the pro-independence one (which is there thanks to the push from Aliança) are politically viable, and the longed-for (by the powers that be) socio-convergence no longer adds up. A broad-spectrum Catalanist government with Junts, which is what Illa would want, would have the dangerous side effect of further inflating the far-right.
Therefore, the great political unknown of the future in Catalonia does not seem to be so much who will govern as who will lead the opposition. And the duel that will decide this will pit Carles Puigdemont's party against Sílvia Orriols.
