Catalan Alliance already overtakes Junts and approaches ERC, according to the CEO

BarcelonaThe PSC would win the parliamentary elections again if they were held today, despite maintaining a downward trend that would take them from the 42 seats obtained in 2024 to a range of between 36 and 38. However, the most relevant image offered by the barometer of the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) made public yesterday is the consolidation of Aliança Catalana on the right of the parliamentary spectrum. Sílvia Orriols' party climbs to 23-25 deputies (it currently has 2) and clearly surpasses Junts per Catalunya, its main rival, which would lose half of its support to a range of between 16 and 18 deputies. ERC is the other party that is rising, consolidating the second position already predicted by other polls, up to 24-26 deputies.

Aliança would practically get one in every three votes that Junts obtained (28%) in the last parliamentary elections, but it would also grow from another flank: it would convince one in every four Vox voters (23%), who are stagnating. “This is new, a year ago it was not yet clear that they would compete so clearly for the same electorate,” explained the director of the CEO, Joan Rodríguez Teruel, about the struggle between the two far-right formations. The party based in Ripoll would also receive 8% of the votes from PP and ERC.

Voters leaving Junts for Aliança are, according to Teruel, those who most oppose the statu quo. In contrast, those who still maintain confidence in Junts are the ones who least oppose, for example, the Generalitat and Moncloa. The big question that remains to be answered is whether an eventual return of Carles Puigdemont could alter current forecasts, taking into account that nothing the Junts leadership has done so far has served to block the advance of Aliança Catalana.

Furthermore, Sílvia Orriols is second in Catalans' preference for the presidency of the Generalitat (8%), only behind the current president, Salvador Illa (18%), and immediately ahead of Gabriel Rufián (7%). The leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, is positioned next, tied with Junts's Carles Puigdemont, each with 5%.

With tailwinds, Sílvia Orriols has boasted about the good moment her party is going through in demographics. In contrast, from the other growing party, ERC, they have not allowed themselves a single day of internal peace: Gabriel Rufián has called for a general reflection, also within his party, due to the rise of the extreme right. From the leadership of Esquerra, Isaac Albert, has lamented that there are "those who are never happy".

In the last CEO poll, last November, Junts and Aliança tied for third place. Since then, the dynamics of the two parties have intensified: Carles Puigdemont's party continues to fall, as the last ARA poll already indicated and, on the other hand, the extreme right continues to rise.

Competing with Vox, the PP also drops to 12-13 seats and Comuns and the CUP would close the hemicycle with between 4 and 5 deputies. Joan Rodríguez Teruel points out that the blocs remain, but there is a change in the weights of the parties that make them up. That is, the bloc that today supports the Government, made up of PSC, ERC and Comuns, would maintain its weight around 68 deputies (absolute majority), but with the Republicans gaining ground on their partners. “The drop in the PSC connects with the increase in ERC because the basic transfer from the socialists is towards the Republicans”, points out Teruel, who does not believe that the corruption cases affecting the PSOE will have much impact. According to the CEO director, the socialists are playing their hand in the second half of the legislature.

It had been eight months since the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió had conducted an electoral poll. One was expected for March, but problems in contracting the surveys have delayed the first barometer of 2026. Two more will be conducted in the last quarter of the year.

Support for independence

The yes to independence improves six points compared to November last year and stands at 45%, still behind the no, the preferred option for 51% of Catalans. Without a clear political proposal on the issue, the director of the CEO underlines that the voting lines between pro-independence and non-pro-independence parties have become blurred. For example, as we pointed out earlier, between ERC and PSC or between Aliança and Vox.

In fact, more than 20% of ERC and Aliança Catalana voters do not consider themselves independentists, thus demonstrating their ability to reach people who do not share the state model proposed by these parties (in the case of Junts, the percentage is 5%, and for the CUP, 3%). The Process having been overcome, pro-independence governments also fell behind and will not return in the short term even if the parties add up their votes: ERC (24-26), Aliança (23-25), Junts (16-18), and CUP (4-5) would together exceed an absolute majority, but the presence of Orriols' party distorts this possibility, as the rest maintain a sanitary cordon around it.

Leaders' ratings

Salvador Illa is the preferred politician by Catalans to be president of the Generalitat. 18% believe he is the one who best performs this role, although, as is the case with the PSC, the percentage of support has been decreasing over time: in November 2024 it was over 30%. Illa is also the best-rated political leader, with an average score of 4.8, tied with the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras.

Orriols, on the other hand, falls in this ranking, largely due to the animosity she generates among left-wing voters. The leader of Aliança obtains an average score of 3.8, but is the one most highly rated among her own voters (8). She is mostly approved by Aliança voters (94%), as well as those of Vox (70%), the PP (65%), and Junts (55%). Carles Puigdemont is placed behind Orriols with a 3.5 and also loses valuation among his own voters, who rate him at 6.4.

Among Spanish political leaders, Catalans only place Pedro Sánchez (4.5) close to passing, well above Alberto Núñez Feijóo (2.2) and Santiago Abascal (1.7). In this category, the CEO only asked about the candidates for PSOE, PP, and Vox, but expanded the range to other Catalan politicians with national projection, and here the spokesperson for ERC in Congress, Gabriel Rufián, turns the ranking around: he ranks first – and the only politician to pass the barometer – with a 5.6. As the latest survey by ARA also showed, Rufián is also the favorite among Esquerra voters, ahead of Junqueras.