Catalan Alliance already surpasses Junts, according to the CEO

BarcelonaThe PSC would win the parliamentary elections again if they were held today, despite maintaining a downward trend, which would take it from the 42 seats it obtained in 2024 to a range of between 36 and 38. However, the most relevant image offered by the barometer of the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) is the consolidation of Aliança Catalana on the right flank of the parliamentary spectrum. Sílvia Orriols' party climbs to 23-25 deputies (it currently has 2) and clearly surpasses Junts per Catalunya, its main rival, which would lose half of its support to a range of between 16 and 18 deputies. ERC is the other party that is rising, consolidating the second position that other polls already predict for it, up to 24-26 deputies.

Aliança would practically get one in three votes of those Junts achieved (28%) in the last Parliament elections, but it would also grow from another flank: it would convince one in four Vox voters (23%), which is stagnating and would aim to slightly improve the results from two years ago. "This is new, a year ago it wasn't clear they would compete so clearly for the same electorate," explained the CEO's director, Joan Rodríguez Teruel, about the dispute between Vox and Aliança. The party based in Ripoll would also receive 8% of votes from the PP and ERC.

In addition, Sílvia Orriols is second in Catalans' preference for the presidency of the Generalitat (8%), only behind the current president, Salvador Illa (18%) and immediately ahead of Gabriel Rufián (7%). ERC's leader, Oriol Junqueras, is next, tied with Junts' leader, Carles Puigdemont, each with 5% of citizen support.

In the last CEO poll, last November, Junts and Aliança were tied in third place. Since then, the dynamics of the two parties have intensified: Carles Puigdemont's party continues to decline, as the latest ARA survey indicated and, conversely, the far-right continues to rise.

Competing with Vox, the PP also drops to 12-13 seats, and Comuns and CUP would close the hemicycle with between 4 and 5 deputies. Joan Rodríguez Teruel points out that the blocs remain, but there is a change in the weight of the parties that make them up. That is, the bloc that today supports the Government, formed by PSC, ERC, and Comuns, would maintain its weight around the 68 deputies they have today (the absolute majority), but with the Republicans gaining ground on their partners. "The drop in the PSC connects with the increase in ERC because the basic transfer from the Socialists is towards the Republicans," points out Teruel.

It had been eight months since the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió had conducted an electoral poll. One was expected for March, but problems with contracting the surveys have delayed the first barometer of 2026. Two more will be conducted in the last quarter of the year.