YouGov is a market research and data analysis company with over 20 years of experience. We enjoy an excellent international reputation in public opinion polling thanks to our accurate predictions in elections in countries as diverse as the United Kingdom, the USA, Denmark, Italy, or Spain in 2023. For the current survey, we have adjusted the data to more faithfully represent the voter profile and account for the typical variations we observe in respondents' direct answers. It should be noted that the survey began on April 8 and ended on the 21st. During this period, Gabriel Rufián held an event at UPF on the unity of the left; the Government reversed its stance on incentives for CAPs to reduce the duration of sick leave; the PSC dismissed the councilors of Ripoll, and the extraordinary regularization of immigrants began. Public opinion is alive and changing, and the survey reflects a very precise snapshot of the moment it was conducted. Pau Pinós (CEO of YouGov)
Alianza Catalana surpasses Junts and the left-wing parties retain the majority in Catalonia
The PSC would win the elections despite suffering some wear and tear, and ERC would regain second place
BarcelonaIt has not been two years since Salvador Illa became president of the Generalitat, and the oasis of tranquility he experienced in his first months is beginning to look more and more like a mirage. For some time now, the difficulties of governing in minority have been compounded by street protests, with teachers being one of the most demanding actors. The ARA survey, conducted by YouGov, detects a certain electoral desgaste of the PSC, but, despite everything, the socialists would consolidate today in the first position in case the elections were brought forward. There is no forecast of this happening, despite the fact that the budget negotiations with ERC remain open, which adds a point of unpredictability to the calendar. The PSC would obtain between 36 and 42 seats and would see the second party in Parliament no longer be Junts, the main victim in case of elections, but Esquerra (27-30).
Without a defined candidate and with its undisputed president and leader in exile, Junts would receive the worst news: it would be relegated to fifth place and would see how Aliança Catalana, its main opponent from the right, would largely surpass it in all constituencies. The pro-independence far-right would multiply its current deputies by 10 to place itself in a range of between 20 and 22, while Carles Puigdemont's party would drop from 35 seats to between 11 and 14. The alarm has been sounding for some time both in Waterloo and at the Bofill passage headquarters, especially with municipal elections scheduled for just over a year from now.
23% of the voters who trusted Junts in 2024 would now go to boost the numbers of Aliança Catalana, which everything indicates could be the leading force in Lleida —neck and neck with the PSC—, and third in both Girona and Tarragona. In Barcelona, it would compete for a podium spot with Vox, the other far-right party, which would also see its position strengthened to the detriment of the PP. With between 14 and 17 deputies, Ignacio Garriga's party would be fourth in Catalonia.
As if these were not enough problems for Junts, the party would suffer a defection not only to the right, but also to the left: ERC would take 12% of the Junts votes from two years ago. Junts is, in fact, the party with the lowest vote retention, as it would only keep 36% of the voters from the last Catalan elections.
Struggle for the right
Does Junts have room to counter the Aliança phenomenon? The dynamic is negative, but the party still has everything to define. In fact, it's not even known who leads the opposition in Catalonia (a position usually held by the leader of the main opposition party). Nothing will move significantly in the party until the expected return of Puigdemont, which does not seem likely to happen before summer. When he returns, will he be the one to head the opposition to Illa? Will he engage in parliamentary life? Will he formalize his candidacy to repeat as list leader? The Puigdemont effect already turned the polls around in 2024, although it didn't help him secure a viable majority to govern.
The poll does not detect too many undecided voters who sympathize with Junts, although 11% of its former electorate has not yet defined their vote. In the current snapshot, Aliança Catalana also doesn't seem to have much more room to grow. So far, Junts has chosen to combat the far-right phenomenon by toughening its discourse on immigration and embracing issues such as tax cuts or the defense of property rights
(the survey's fieldwork was done before the votes against the rent extension and against the Catalonia investment consortium, and therefore could not reflect their possible effect on the electorate).
the defense of property owners' rights
Tripartite yes, but not an independence government
Tripartite yes, but not an independentist governmentBut the wind seems to be blowing in their favor. In fact, it is precisely Rufián who is the best-rated leader, according to the ARA survey, and even the one who receives the most "Likes" to become president of the Generalitat. The politician from Santa Coloma de Gramenet has gone viral throughout the country, and his style and proposals also appeal to Catalan voters. Among ERC voters, Rufián is proving more popular than Oriol Junqueras, based on the survey results (the fieldwork coincided with the aftermath of the event in Barcelona between Rufián and Irene Monterothe event in Barcelona between Rufián and Irene Montero).
the event in Barcelona between Rufián and Irene MonteroFor the moment, the Government will remain in the minority and no coalition agreement is expected during the legislature. On average, the assessment made by citizens is not very positive. The executive fails with a score of 4.1 and there are 37% of respondents who believe its management is bad or deficient (only 22% consider it good or excellent).
The survey, conducted by YouGov, contains the responses of 1,353 individuals from their online panel, aged 18 or over and eligible to vote in Catalonia, representative by age, gender, region, and voting recall from the 2024 Catalan Parliament elections. Interviews were conducted between April 8 and April 21. For a 95% confidence level, the sampling error is ±2.71%.
