Elections that will mark the course of the planet

BarcelonaNever a midterm election (midterms in English) in the United States had garnered such interest as those this Tuesday. And it is that surely never before had the United States had a president who has not only blown up the international order that has governed since the end of the Second World War, but has also undermined the democratic institutions of his own country from the first day of his second term. Curiously, it seems that neither of these two factors will be the deciding one in the elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate, but rather it will be the rise in prices caused by the war in Iran and the tariff policy. It is precisely economic policy that has eroded support for Trump among his base and has shot up support for the Democrats in traditionally Republican states.

Indeed, in Tuesday's elections the Democrats can overturn the majority in the House of Representatives, which is renewed every two years and is especially important in matters of domestic policy, and in the Senate, a chamber of which one third is renewed every two years and where the Republicans have a slim majority of 4 seats. If the Democratic victory is confirmed, the new Congress (which is the sum of the Senate and the House of Representatives) will have the power to curb some of Trump's most harmful policies, for example by vetoing budget items.

The most important thing, however, would be the political effect, since in this case it is foreseeable that the iron grip that Donald Trump exercises over the Republican Party will be broken. For sheer survival, many Republican leaders will rush to distance themselves if they understand that staying by his side puts their political careers at risk. It is also true that there is a danger that a losing Trump, or even a Trump who wins by a narrow margin, could be even more dangerous and unpredictable. His insinuations of electoral fraud, just as he did in 2016, could be the prelude to a total challenge to the American system.

In any case, the world will hold its breath to see which direction the United States takes. For Europe and countries of the global south like Brazil and Mexico, a defeat of Trumpism will mean an opportunity to return to multilateralism. Conversely, a Republican victory will be celebrated by Trump's allies such as Netanyahu in Israel and Milei in Argentina. The Democrats, for their part, will face the challenge of providing an opposition that allows them to present themselves as a reliable alternative in the 2028 elections. The emergence of new figures in the party, often positioned on the left, has energized the Democratic base and can attract many young people, as happened with Mamdani in New York, but it is no guarantee of victory in a presidential election where they will need a candidate capable of bringing together many sensibilities.

The hope, however, is that these elections will signify the beginning of the end of Trumpism as a movement of international scope, and that they will therefore signify a turning point in the reactionary wave that is sweeping the world. The result will determine international stability and the basic consensus that have made American democracy possible.