Butterfly effect: Donald Trump and the African rural exodus

In December 2025, a good portion of African countries had found themselves with a window of opportunity. The price of oil was low, and in global markets, it seemed there was more supply of oil than demand, a fact that would have kept energy prices stable. Most African countries are importers of gasoline and diesel, with prices that tend to move at the same rate as those of oil. At the end of February 2026, however, war broke out in Iran.The one in Iran was supposed to be a brief intervention to decapitate the regime in a few days and install a government more aligned with the United States –the same argument that Russia used in Ukraine in February 2022–. Today both conflicts are still ongoing. Ukraine is attacking Russian refineries and the circulation of refined products and oil is partially blocked in the Middle East; and Africa is feeling the effects. Even the continent's major oil exporters –such as Angola, Libya or Equatorial Guinea– are suffering: despite earning more money by selling barrels of crude oil, they then have to spend it again to import gasoline, diesel, and food, all much more expensive.

In the United States –as everywhere else– the cause of the rise in the price of diesel has become a partisan discussion. Since diesel affects transport, agriculture, and energy generation, its movements are a thermometer of the rising cost of living in the country. For the Democrats, the cause is the Iran war, and they blame Donald Trump. Trumpist circles, and Trump himself, say the fault lies with the war in Ukraine, which began during Joe Biden's term.

The agency Bloomberg, citing data from various agencies specializing in commodity trading, published this September that a good part of the drop in diesel exports is linked to the conflict in the Middle East, well above the disruptions linked to the Ukrainian one.

For Africans it is indifferent: their governments rush to global auctions to get ships carrying fuel to go to their ports, and they compete with much richer regions, like Europe, which can offer higher prices.

Widespread inflation

Like a virus, inflation spreads from the ports and major African capitals –through which goods arrive– to the countryside, where the cost of living is skyrocketing. Fertilizers, transported to rural areas, are increasing in price. Those who grow cocoa in Ghana, cotton in Burkina Faso, tea in Kenya, or peanuts in Senegal suffer a blow to their economy. Some farmers use less fertilizer to save money, and consequently, their harvests are worse. Others abandon farming.

It is the great phenomenon that has occurred on the continent over the last thirty years: a silent exodus from rural areas, where farmers struggle to produce enough food, to urban areas. Food producers disappear and join the list of urban consumers, who depend increasingly on imports of food produced elsewhere. Now, West Africa lives in suspense over rice harvests in India and South Asia, also affected by the global energy crisis. East and North Africa keep a wary eye on the wheat situation in Russia and Ukraine.

Russia has restricted diesel exports until the end of October and has left its main buyers in Africa (Tunisia, Burkina Faso, and Senegal) exposed and has contributed to the price escalation for the rest, wherever they buy from. Some countries have gained time in recent months by buying more from the United States, but this week in Washington, an idea has begun to be considered to lower the price of diesel before the midterm elections: banning its exports. Donald Trump is in favor of a full-blown "America First" policy that would leave millions of Africans stranded and would instantly generate countless stories of migration across the continent. A butterfly effect invisible to the general public, but with some flesh-and-blood consequences. We see them when they arrive in Ceuta, Melilla, or the Canary Islands.