What could happen to the Ibex-35 after 11-29?

Madrid"Pedro Sánchez has not been a social democrat, but a socialist." A former high-level executive of the Ibex-35 summarizes in this way the policy that, in his view, the Spanish government has carried out during this last term regarding the State's relationship with companies, especially those considered strategic. But also regarding economic policy –regulation– over major sectors. An assertion, however, that would likely be questioned by parties to the left of the PSOE, particularly Podemos.

For example, after decades of privatization euphoria in the State, both with PP and PSOE governments, Sánchez has defended the presence of public capital in important companies: the State has entered Telefónica, of which it holds 10% of the capital; it has created the State Society for Technological Transformation (SETT) to invest in technology companies and has promoted a "sovereign fund". It has also approved extraordinary taxes on energy companies and banks. In Moncloa, they have justified many of the decisions due to the current European and global context: the Old Continent is doing everything possible to achieve strategic autonomy in areas such as defense on a geopolitical board that is upside down.

Now the calling of early general elections for November 29 and a possible change of color in the central executive –as much of the polling suggests– put this strategy in the crosshairs. And, consequently, its collateral effects: public shareholdings, the names of the executives, and economic policy itself.

"There will surely be changes," point out various voices linked to the private orbit of Madrid in relation to a possible PP government, alone or with Vox, although the entry of the far-right does not seem to cause much concern. "The economic portfolios would be kept by the PP," says one of the sources consulted. During these years, the Popular Party has denounced "political interference [by Pedro Sánchez] in business management".

In any case, no one dares to specify the scope of these possible movements. Beyond waiting for the result of November 29 – the 2023 elections showed that nothing can be taken for granted – the PP has limited itself to questioning the State's entry into the capital of companies like Telefónica, but it has not explicitly said that it is betting on a divestment. Or at least that it is a measure it wants to take immediately. Will it allow strategic companies to be a showcase for any investor? On the other hand, it has said that it will adopt changes in the "management of investee companies".

Be that as it may, it is known that historically there has been a kind of tacit agreement regarding the alignment between companies with state capital and the government of the day, as is the case with the vast majority of public companies and important bodies.

However, some executives sponsored by Pedro Sánchez in companies with State participation could perform balancing acts "due to their temperament," according to three sources consulted by this newspaper. That is to say, to reach an entente cordiale with a possible new government. The example of Àngel Simón is given, current president of Indra, a company with a state participation of 27.99% of the capital through SEPI, its investment arm.

Turn in 2022

During the first years of Pedro Sánchez's government, and in particular the first years of the pandemic, were marked by a public image of harmony with the companies of the Spanish selective index, despite the fact that they never looked favorably upon the entry of Podemos (and, later on, Sumar) into the council of ministers. The start of the political year was celebrated before the top executives of the main listed companies.

Starting in 2022, however, the slogan "government of the people" began to gain prominence. That year, after approving the extraordinary taxes for the economic shock due to the war in Ukraine, the socialist leader, from the Congress rostrum, said: "If [Ana] Botín and [Ignacio Sánchez] Galán protest against the taxes, we are heading in the right direction." Months later, the standoff was with Rafael del Pino, president of Ferrovial, over the decision to move the company's headquarters to the Netherlands: "The homeland is not just about building wealth. The homeland is about being in solidarity [...], especially when we are talking about the third or fourth largest fortune in Spain, which has largely grown thanks to the country."

This tone was accentuated following the 2023 elections. Sánchez spoke of "hidden powers" and claimed that the Spanish "large corporations" had pushed Alberto Núñez Feijóo to the presidency of the PP.

The return to the listed companies

During this time, and with strategic sovereignty as a backdrop, Sánchez has not hesitated to reinforce the State's role in the business world and, in particular, in some Ibex-35 listed companies. This is where the so-called anti-takeover shield comes into play –approved in 2020 and in force until December 2026–, a mechanism that allows the government to veto or condition the purchase of strategic companies by foreign investors, and which will remain in the hands of the future executive.

Another case is the State Society of Industrial Participations (SEPI), an entity that, after years of going unnoticed, has eclipsed the main economic headlines –also due to some legal fronts such as the Plus Ultra case–. Its president Belén Gualda was appointed by Pedro Sánchez in 2021. Among the operations of these years, the weight gained by the capital of the defense company Indra stands out (it has gone from 18% to 28% in just under five years).

The company was already splashed by political turmoil during Sánchez's first term with the appointment of Marc Murtra as president. Beyond the name –which has been linked to the socialist orbit–, the Spanish government wanted to leave behind the plans of Fernando Abril Martorell, appointed by Mariano Rajoy (PP) in 2015, and steer Indra towards defense.

The peace pipe arrives with the signing of José Vicente de los Mozos, a profile with good rapport with some popular leaders. But everything falls apart when exploring the operation with the Escribano group, until recently the second largest shareholder of Indra. The SEPI ends up seeing a conflict of interest, forces the exit of Ángel Escribano as president –he enters when Murtra makes the jump to Telefónica– and bets on the entry of Àngel Simón, former executive of La Caixa.

The link between Simón and Pedro Sánchez's executive comes precisely from his time at CriteriaCaixa, the investment holding company of the La Caixa Foundation, chaired by Isidre Fainé. For a time, the holding company and the Spanish government worked hand in hand to protect their interests in companies like Telefónica, of which La Caixa is a historic shareholder, today with 10%. Without their approval, the change at the top of the teleco could not have taken place with the departure of José María Álvarez-Pallete, one of the people closest to Isidre Fainé, and the entry of Murtra. The surprising entry of the Arab fund STC into Telefónica was the exponent: the State warned that it was a strategic company and frowned upon the operation; finally, it ended up buying part of the capital 26 years after its privatization.

The last major move came in the summer of 2025, when SEPI entered the train manufacturer Talgo. The move has served to allow the Basque company Sidenor to take control of Talgo after purchasing almost 30% of the shares following the exit of the British fund Trilantic. A divestment that was preceded by different failed takeover bids, including that of the Hungarian Magyar Vagon which the government vetoed. In the background was the suspicion towards Viktor Orbán's Hungary. Brussels endorsed it.

The other investees

But these are not the only companies in which SEPI has a role. It also has stakes in: Enagás (5%), Ebro Foods (10.36%), Redeia –manager of the electricity grid– (20%), Hispasat (10%), Airbus (4.1%), and IAG (2.1%). In some cases, a change of color in the central government has not meant any alteration. For example, since 2007 the president of Enagás has been Antonio Llardén. In others, however, it has, but it must be taken into account that here the weight of the participation comes into play.

At Redeia, Sánchez placed Beatriz Corredor as president, currently in the crosshairs of the PP due to the massive blackout of April 2025, while at Hispasat there is the former socialist minister Pedro Duque.

Other public companies (or with a significant public weight) are Correus, the Efe Agency, Renfe, and Aena, whose presidents are usually trusted by the government of the day, and in the latter case by the Ministry of Transport. Currently, they are Álvaro Fernández Heredia (at Renfe since 2025) and the former PSC leader Maurici Lucena (president of Aena since 2018, during Sánchez's first term). At Paradores the president is Raquel Sánchez, former socialist Minister of Transport. And there are also other companies such as Navantia, Hipódromo de la Zarzuela, Grupo Tragsa, among others.

"Interventionist" laws

When it comes to promoting laws and reforms, the major business associations, from the CEOE to Foment del Treball, have denounced the government's "interventionism," just like the PP.

Tensions have surfaced in regulated and strategic sectors, such as energy, for example every time the establishment of a cap on electricity or gas prices has been proposed, and when the remuneration of the electrical grid and the extension of the useful life of nuclear power plants have been addressed.

In the banking sector, the Spanish executive has sought to intervene in issues such as financial inclusion, mortgages, and the remuneration of deposits—when interest rates have soared—or the hostile takeover bid by BBVA for Banco Sabadell. Here, the government's position has not pleased everyone. For example, while some welcomed the public consultation to learn the citizenry's opinion on a possible merger—something that later served the executive to impose additional conditions—others were left stunned.

To all of this, other sectors with which the government has maintained confrontations until quite recently are added. The data center association, for example, has criticized Sánchez's environmental requirements regarding the deployment of these infrastructures. There has also been a standoff with technological multinationals, starting with X and its owner, Elon Musk. "The voice of democracy will not be bent by the masters of the algorithm," Sánchez has stated.

And in these last few days, it has been the real estate lobby that has complained about the housing decrees approved by the Spanish government that have precipitated the electoral call. In the business world, there had been speculation about possible election dates for some time, but no one counted on such immediacy or on 2026.

Shielded mandates

Meanwhile, there are those who can look at a possible change of guard at the Moncloa with some calm. These are the appointments that Pedro Sánchez has made in institutions where mandates are fixed by law to protect their independence. In fact, they need the approval of Congress and the possibility of dismissal is very limited.

The first is the Bank of Spain, with former socialist minister José Luis Escrivá at the helm since December 2024. His mandate does not expire until 2030, although he has proposed extending it for two more years. His designation triggered an avalanche of criticism from the opposition, which considered the entity's politicization excessive. His predecessor, Pablo Hernández de Cos, had entered with the PP government of Mariano Rajoy and, although he has always been linked to the Popular Party, he has been embraced by Sánchez, who supports him in the race to preside over the European Central Bank (ECB).

This is also the case for the appointments to the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), now chaired by Inés Olóndriz de Moragas (who has a mandate until 2033), who came from the leadership of the Ministry of Finance; that of Carlos San Basilio to the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) in 2024 (which generated controversy because he did not come from within the organization, but had been number two to former Economy Minister Nadia Calviño); and also the appointment of Juan José Ganuza as the new president of the National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC), replacing Cani Fernández.

Sánchez's government did not need the support of the PP in Congress for them to go through. And the Popular Party has complained that the Moncloa did not consult them on appointments that used to be made by consensus between the two main forces of the State.

The parties that facilitated Pedro Sánchez's investiture in 2023 have also tried to benefit from all this, especially Junts and ERC, but also the PNV, which have placed profiles aligned with the parties in some publicly traded companies with public presence, but also in public bodies when there was a game of musical chairs.