The CNI warns that the extraordinary regularization may be a "risk" for Spain
The Spanish government believes that the work of the intelligence services must be reviewed
Madrid / BarcelonaAmong the 40 documents that the Moncloa declassified on Tuesday is a CNI report on irregular immigration to Spain from July 27th that was shared both with the Spanish Government Delegation in Ceuta and with all competent ministries, which warns of two issues: it asserts, on one hand, that the Supreme Court ruling rejecting summary returns by sea may have a "very significant" impact on irregular entries into Ceuta, although—mind you—it says it trusts that Morocco would contain the migratory pressure, and, on the other hand, that the extraordinary regularization of migrants may be a "risk" for Spain because it "will increase migratory pressure directly and indirectly".
Read the CNI reportLet's take it step by step. This intelligence services report provides an analysis of the entry points for irregular immigration into the State up to June 30, 2026, and according to the Moncloa website, it was transmitted to the relevant authorities on July 27 at 12:03 PM. Up to that date, it is noted that the State's weak point is the route coming from Algeria, which is where the most irregular entries by sea occur, as a consequence, among others, of the increasing danger of the route passing through Libya due to the presence of criminal groups and armed gangs. In contrast, it describes a decrease in arrivals through Mauritania, as the authorities of this country are highly "involved in controlling irregular flows," as well as from The Gambia. These are two countries with which Pedro Sánchez has reached bilateral agreements to tighten the interception of irregular routes.
Regarding Ceuta and Melilla, the CNI warns of the effects of the recent Supreme Court ruling: "It could have a very significant impact on irregular entries into the autonomous cities, especially in Ceuta." However, it states that they trust in Morocco: "It is estimated that the control of the Moroccan authorities over irregular immigration will maintain a containment effect" and that the arrival figures to the Peninsula "will remain similar to those of the same period in 2025." In fact, the Western Mediterranean border is where they see the least risk. An assessment they would correct two days later, warning of mass gatherings for Ceuta. In any case, after conducting this analysis, they add a more prospective report on the effects of the entry into force of the New European Union Pact on Migration and Asylum and its fit with Sánchez's extraordinary regularization. They say that the EU's desire to make the expulsion of irregular migrants effective – something that requires readmission by the countries of origin – may affect the diplomatic relations that Spain has with North Africa. "It would affect not only migratory control but also trade and security," it states.
The CNI report concludes that the following "risks" exist for Spain. It considers that the State's position could "remain exposed to the divergence between the spirit and the letter of the European Pact on Migration and Asylum and the ongoing process of regularizing migrants in Spain, which creates a risk." "Spain presents itself as a more receptive EU destination, which increases direct and indirect migratory pressure," it says, and points out that this weakens the government's bargaining power as a "recipient" of European migration management funds. It also interprets that "African partners may perceive a certain contradiction between the ongoing cooperation for the reduction of flows and the regularization."
Beyond this, and in relation to the possibilities offered by the European Pact on Migration and Asylum, they also identify another risk, "unlikely": that is that hubs for migrants are installed in third countries of the European Union to house immigrants who are subject to a return decision to their countries of origin and that this generates more "migratory pressure" for the Spanish geopolitical environment.
The Spanish government maintains that it could not anticipate the crisis
After the declassification of the documents, this Thursday it was the turn for interpretations and, despite the CNI's warnings about mass calls to enter Ceuta, the Spanish government maintains that it could not anticipate the crisis. Furthermore: it considers that the CNI's work must be reviewed.
The Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Óscar Puente, has assured RNE that the CNI's warnings to the Government Delegation in Ceuta were not "clear enough" nor were they issued "with enough time" to prevent the entry. Margarita Robles, who was the only one to say that the CNI had indeed issued warnings, also spoke: she said the government works "united" and that the Ceuta scenario was "unforeseeable". The government delegate in Ceuta, the socialist Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano, has assured that the CNI's message was not considered either "as an alert or an appropriate channel". The President of Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page (and a habitual critic of the Sánchez government), does not share this: he has asked the executive to "get its act together" regarding the Ceuta crisis because, if not, "it could be the great lie of democracy after 11-M".
However, Puente has clarified that his words are not "a criticism of the CNI", although he added that from now on the "type of measures of the intelligence services to read these events better and with more anticipation" will be reviewed. Sánchez has already warned that more preparation of the intelligence and information services is necessary in the face of a hybrid attack.
