Pedro Sánchez, the great prestidigitator

MadridPedro Sánchez Castejón (Madrid, 1972) is, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, "an enigma, wrapped in a mystery inside a hieroglyph". Is he the cynical, cold and unscrupulous monster that the right paints? Or is he the empathetic and compassionate leader for the people who are struggling most that the left defends? Is he an aspiring dictator or, on the contrary, the last wall standing against the global far-right? The only certainty is that between the current Pedro Sánchez and the one who burst onto the political scene in 2014 there is an abyss. And it is this evolution, riddled with dramatic twists, changes of opinion and an undeniable capacity to overcome adversity and adapt reality to his needs, that has led to what we know today as Sanchismo. This is the story of the great prestidigitator of recent Spanish political history.

This tale begins at a meeting of notable 'Felipistas' of the party, headed by the then Andalusian president, Susana Díaz, in 2014. There, they discuss the primaries that have been called in the PSOE and the need to find a candidate to stand up to Eduardo Madina, who was the reformist candidate and who, by the way, finished ahead of Sánchez in Catalonia. Díaz aspires to be the general secretary, but considers that it is not yet her moment and they look for a straw man to keep the seat warm for her. The meeting, which journalist Jesús Maraña reconstructs in the book Al fondo a la izquierda (Planeta, 2017), ends with Pedro Sánchez's name on the table and an anthological phrase from Díaz: "This boy is no good, but he is good for us". Maraña writes: "Sánchez is portrayed as a tall, handsome and likeable guy willing to accept orders from his superiors[...] and it is understood that his leadership will be monitored, shared or tutored". Sánchez, therefore, arrives at Ferraz in July 2014 thanks to the powerful Andalusian federation of the PSOE and because he is seen as someone harmless, but his sponsors will soon realize their immense error in calculation. Their straw man has two faces. Beneath the sheep's skin lives a wolf.

It is true that in his beginnings at Ferraz, Sánchez does not stray from orthodoxy. A socialist baron who dealt with him a lot at that time recalls that he was "a convinced liberal and a great enthusiast of public-private collaboration". On February 24, 2016, Sánchez takes a photo that today seems like science fiction with Albert Rivera to sign an agreement to form a "reformist and progressive government" that, among other things, included the abolition of provincial councils and the limitation of terms to eight years. The maneuver would not prosper due to the vote against it by the PP and Podemos. There, however, history could have changed. At that time, leaders and pundits from Cs and the PSOE would meet in the private rooms of Madrid restaurants and dream of an understanding that would overcome the ghost of the two Spains. Ramón González Ferri explains this very well in his book La ruptura (Debate). All of that, however, would not take long to go awry.

With the operation with Cs aborted, the PSOE found itself, at the beginning of 2016, between a rock and a hard place after narrowly avoiding the sorpasso by Podemos. It had to choose between facilitating the investiture of Mariano Rajoy or forcing a new repetition of elections and prolonging the blockade. That is when Sánchez's story takes a very sharp turn. Barons and main party officials considered that Rajoy's investiture should be facilitated out of responsibility, but Sánchez, who proves to have a great political instinct, understands that that would mean the end of his political career and, most importantly, senses that the membership does not want to make things easy for the right. And when he rebels, the party decides to kill him on a convulsive October 1st, that of 2016.

Rereading the press of that time, one realizes that absolutely everyone without exception considers him dead. It is especially interesting to read the list of those who participated in the conspiracy, because a decade later many of them are declared Sanchistas, such as Antonio Hernando, who was his spokesperson and betrayed him, or the then Organization Secretary of the PSC, José Zaragoza. Here is another characteristic of Sanchismo: magnanimity. Sánchez is a killer, but he accepts the redemption of his former enemies.

The 2017 primaries

His triumphal victory in the 2017 primaries in which he swept Susana Díaz brought about a new Sánchez: without tutelage, with the epic of the phoenix rising from the ashes and with a very clear narrative line: all-out war on the PP. Here, the image of an indestructible Sánchez began to be created, one you can never count out, like some kind of Terminator. A witness from that time claims it is the episode that best defines Sanchismo: he had the opportunity to change his life, with offers from large companies on the table, and he decided to fight for control of the party with his sights set on the Moncloa.

But it is also in those primaries where, abandoned by everyone, he has to resort to dark figures like José Luis Ábalos or Santos Cerdán. Ábalos will be, by the way, one of the first to see in the May 2018 ruling that condemns the PP for corruption in the Gürtel case an opportunity to storm the Moncloa with a motion of no confidence and where Ivan Redondo plays a key role, who will be the first chief of staff that Sánchez will have at the Moncloa. It will be the apex of his successful strategy shifts.

Here is the first time that Catalonia enters the Sanchista equation. Until then, Sánchez had not deviated from the Jacobin script and had been an enthusiastic defender of Article 155. But to storm the Moncloa he needs the Catalan sovereignist votes, specifically the 9 from ERC, which has its leader Oriol Junqueras in prison, and the 8 from the PDECat, with Carles Puigdemont, who has already founded Junts, in exile but with Marta Pascal piloting the parliamentary group. The one who tips the balance, however, is the PNB, which had just voted for Rajoy's budget. On June 1, 2018, Pedro Sánchez becomes Spanish president in a move that no one had foreseen just a few weeks earlier.

In his first executive, the leader of the PSOE shows one of his best cards: most of the portfolios will be occupied, for the first time in democracy, by women. Feminism will be, from that moment on, one of the hallmarks of Sanchismo. That move automatically places the PSOE at the top of the polls and clearly surpasses Podemos while Cs chases the PP, which is forced to change its leader. Sánchez takes advantage of those first months at Moncloa to approve social measures such as the minimum wage increase, but also reactivates the dialogue with the Generalitat, and this outrages the right.

February 10, 2019 is an important day: the PP, Vox and Cs demonstrate together for the first time in Colón square under the slogan "For a united Spain, elections now", and Sánchez senses that, given ERC's refusal to approve the budget, the time has come to go to elections against the "triple right". The polarization strategy is set in motion which, in the medium term, will make the center disappear and boost Vox. Sanchismo is already taking shape: in Spain there are only two historical blocs, the left and sovereignists against the right. And he is the leader of the former.

The April 2019 elections made an agreement between the PSOE and Cs possible, but Rivera, who fell into Sánchez's trap and positioned himself in the right-wing bloc, refuses it. Even the Financial Times pressured in favor of this pact. Some sources from that time consulted believe that history could have been different, but the electoral repetition led Sánchez to break the last wall that remained in democracy: a coalition government that included, for the first time since the Civil War, communists within it.

The embrace with Pablo Iglesias

To the question: how would you define Pedro Sánchez?, one of the most precise deputies in Congress responds without hesitation: "He is the most pragmatic guy in the world". This was proven in 2019, when after saying that he would not be able to sleep with Podemos in the government, he ended up forging a coalition pact with Pablo Iglesias. "There is only one Pedro, but with many facets", adds the same parliamentarian, who exemplifies this with the successive governments he has had since 2018. First a solo executive of the PSOE, the "beautiful government", where there was even the astronaut Pedro Duque, then a technocratic government with Nadia Calviño, Josep Borrell, then Arancha González Laya or Teresa Ribera, which combines leaders linked to Brussels with ministers from Podemos. It is also at this moment that he inaugurates a speech favorable to dialogue with Catalonia. Not so much because he is a convinced federalist (he is from the Madrid PSOE), but because the arithmetic reality imposes itself: without Esquerra, the PNB and EH Bildu there is no possible dance.

From the opposition, however, they see him completely differently. "He is someone you cannot be sure is not a robot, he has no feelings or empathy," explains a leader from the right who has dealt with him a lot. On the other hand, an important union leader highlights his work capacity and genuine concern for people's problems. "He is capable of writing to you at 3 in the morning to ask you something and never leaves a call unanswered," he states.

Atthis point in Sanchismo, the PSC is key. Cornered in Catalonia by the Procés, it engages in pedagogy within the PSOE on how to calm the waters again. Miquel Iceta is the first leader to speak of pardons and Salvador Illa, at that time unknown to the general public, but an iron governor of the party, joins the negotiation on Sánchez's investiture between the republicans and the socialists at the end of 2019. On one side were Marta Vilalta, Josep Maria Jové and Gabriel Rufián –the only one convinced of the pact– and on the other, Illa, Adriana Lastra and José Luis Ábalos. There began the strategy of the agreement with the Spanish government to mitigate repression, which Esquerra began by achieving the pardons in 2021 and the reform of the Penal Code to eliminate sedition in 2022 and Junts joined in 2023, when it would agree on the amnesty law.

An independence leader who has experienced it firsthand interprets that, initially, Sánchez does not believe it, but as the "best actor in Spanish politics" he ends up adapting to the circumstances. It is the advantage of not being an orthodox, who blends in with the environment and can go from promising to almost "bring Puigdemont back with the GEOs" to granting him amnesty; or from having Albert Rivera as vice president to being an ally of Arnaldo Otegi. This sovereignist voice does not consider it a defect, but a virtue, since through this he has managed to keep his party in power. "With Pedro Sánchez there are no limits, it is all a question of the strength you have and his terrible capacity to adapt to the moment," he summarizes, while a PSOE deputy points out: while it is true that this is the case, he is "brave" when it comes to making decisions and, if he makes them, he goes all in.

That is what happened with the pardons. On June 21, 2021, in a solemn act at the Liceu Theatre in Barcelona, he announced the measure of grace for the political prisoners to pave the way for "reconciliation". A senior socialist leader acknowledges that this was hard for the PSOE to swallow: "There was a reasonable number of discrepancies that did not translate into a relevant critical space against Sánchez. But it was understood that it weakened us in the rest of the State". However, the gamble began to be accepted as it is seen how the dialogue benefits the PSC electorally in Catalonia and, at the same time, props up Sánchez at the Moncloa: the socialist victories in the Principality, both regional and municipal (2021, 2023 and 2024), become the crown jewel for the PSOE.

To this dependence that Spanish socialism has on the Catalan one, an absolute harmony between the two leaders is added: Sánchez and Illa, who takes the step as the PSC's presidential candidate by surprise and replacing Miquel Iceta in the February 2021 elections. Sánchez and Illa forge their relationship during the pandemic, when the current president of the Generalitat is Minister of Health and stays to live confined at the Moncloa. There they establish a professional and personal bond that still lasts today, and Illa becomes one of the most important squires for Pedro Sánchez: he trusts his judgment and listens to him.

It is also during the coronavirus crisis that Sánchez strengthens himself with State intervention policies. The public sector is back in fashion after the austerity crisis and the Spanish president takes advantage of it on a Spanish scale to intervene in strategic sectors of the economy, placing like-minded executives to try to crack the traditional power of the PP in Madrid DF. Because for Sanchismo it is also key that there are economic power centers outside the Spanish capital that counteract the hegemony of the PP of the Community of Madrid. "Sanchismo is an ambition of power in evolution," summarizes a former minister.

This stage is the most important turning point of Sanchismo. It is when the leader of the PSOE makes a pact with Podemos and Basque and Catalan independence movements that he goes off the rails established by the old guard of the PSOE –the Felipes, the Guerras...– to inaugurate a new rock'n'roll: a shift to the left of the socialists and a greater sensitivity towards peripheral nationalisms. The PSOE is accompanying Sánchez in this metamorphosis –"he doesn't have a work team, he has followers," complains a critic–. But not only that: also Spanish society as a whole. It is interesting to observe the data. Since the Spanish president has been governing, especially starting from 2020, the population that positions itself at the maximum left position and at the maximum right position has increased significantly, to the detriment of the center. That is to say, an increase in polarization has occurred.

The carnage and the reconciliation

However, just as it began its journey, the coalition government of PSOE and Podemos had to manage the coronavirus crisis, which implied daily wear and tear due to the lockdown, the deaths, and the harshness of the economic decisions to be made. All of this in contrast to an Isabel Díaz Ayuso in the Community of Madrid who championed the concept of freedom – at the cost of the 9,470 deaths in the nursing homes of the Spanish capital – and swept the regional elections in May 2021.

It is at this point that Sánchez ruthlessly kills off his core circle. In July 2021, he wants to inaugurate a new phase of economic recovery following the pandemic, with the Next Generation European funds, and he needs to visualize a turning point for the legislature. He dispenses with the Vice President, Carmen Calvo, until then his right-hand woman in the party and the executive –she would later assume the presidency of the Council of State–; with the minister José Luis Ábalos, his strongman in all negotiations; and also with his chief of staff, Ivan Redondo, who later revealed that he had a heart condition that made it impossible for him to continue.

At this moment, figures from the territory such as Raquel Sánchez, Isabel Rodríguez, Pilar Alegría... are incorporated into Sanchism, with Pedro Sánchez's desire to reconcile with his generation in the party and culminate the pacification of the PSOE at the Valencia congress in October 2021. A conclave where Sánchez, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, and Felipe González reappear together – an image of unity that would end up being a mirage – and where the Spanish president recovers figures he had clashed with, such as Óscar López, who replaces Redondo as chief of staff at Moncloa, and Antonio Hernando, who also joins the Presidency. It is the recovery of a triumvirate, present at the origins of Sánchez in the PSOE of Madrid, which had grown around former minister Pepe Blanco, now a totem of public relations in the capital of the State.

However, it is also at this moment that the PSOE leader decides to keep those who have accompanied him on his journey through the desert in the party and who would later turn out to be bad company. He ratifies Santos Cerdán as organization secretary of the PSOE and brings back Ábalos to be on the 2023 lists, when he unexpectedly calls early elections after the socialists' defeat in the regional and municipal elections. "His strength is not human resources," ironizes a parliamentarian.

Pedro Sánchez's most difficult term

2023 is Pedro Sánchez's most difficult term. On the night of July 23, the impossible stroke of luck happens and Sánchez is once again in a position to govern. It is the great trauma of the PP, which has already ousted Pablo Casado and bet on Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Mind you, unlike the previous legislature, when the alliance was with the sovereignist left, now he also needs Carles Puigdemont to remain at Moncloa. Until that moment, the former president of the Generalitat, in exile, had disengaged from the governability of the State because he was not essential and, during the campaign, he had even assured that he would not buy "even a second-hand car" from Sánchez. But, alas!, a window of opportunity for a pact opened and Puigdemont did not let it go to waste either: the PSOE was willing to offer something it had previously rejected, the amnesty.

Sánchez raises the stakes and puts not only the right but the entire State on a war footing. "We have paid a price," asserts a socialist source, who believes that often from the independence movement the effort that the PSOE has made in the legislature of plurinationality has not been valued enough. "I have always told them the same thing: the next ones are you," replies an independence official with fluid dialogue with the socialists, since the PSOE believed it was immune to "judicial persecution" for being a State party.

The problem with Pedro Sánchez is that in the last legislative term, cases of alleged corruption have multiplied, and the motto that brought him to Moncloa in 2018 has been called into question: democratic regeneration following the PP's Gürtel ruling. "It has been very painful," asserts a member of the PSOE leadership, bearing in mind, moreover, that in Sánchez's first months in power, he wanted to set an example: he had two ministers resign just after starting due to irregularities in their CVs –Carmen Montón– and tax fraud –Màxim Huerta.

An irrelevant anecdote when compared to the magnitude of the cases affecting figures such as Koldo García, Leire Díez or Santos Cerdán, as well as the impact of the open investigations surrounding David Sánchez, Begoña Gómez or José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero himself. La Moncloa distinguishes between them: it believes the Koldo, Cerdán and Díez cases are isolated bad practices; and the second group, that it is a matter of persecution to hurt him: his brother, his wife and his political lighthouse. In fact, the start of the investigation into Begoña Gómez, who will end up being tried by a popular jury, led him to his five days of reflection in the spring of 2024, where he decided that, despite the judicial threat, he would continue forward.

Beyond the cases of personal impact, Zapatero becomes one of Sánchez's closest political collaborators. Thanks to him, Sanchismo has had continuity: he is the key person who in 2023 manages to convince Puigdemont regarding the investiture in exchange for the amnesty and is also the one who acts as a firefighter in the continuous crises with Junts over the last three years. However, without success, since in the end it was the Junts members who, with their 'no' to the housing regulations, drove Sánchez to call elections.

The grand finale

Of all the corruption cases that have erupted, the one that left Sánchez most affected was that of Santos Cerdán. Until the very last moment, he denied everything to him, and he trusted him until the end. "They all had dinner together a week before the UCO report at Moncloa," they recount to exemplify that Sánchez felt deceived. In the PSOE, they maintain that the Spanish president knew nothing about it and that the former organization secretary was acting on his own as an omnipotent power. This is the official narrative following the outbreak of the Cerdán case in 2025, which will turn the legislature into a roller coaster until the end of the term.

To the war in Ukraine, in 2022, and the war in Gaza after the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, are added the arrest of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the war in Iran, the confrontation with Donald Trump... and foreign policy becomes the preferred stage for Pedro Sánchez, boosted by his chief of staff at Moncloa, Diego Rubio, who does not come from the party but from academia. International relations become fertile ground for Sánchez to become a benchmark for the global left, as demonstrated by the significance beyond Spanish borders that the world gives to 29-N.

After the crisis of the massive influx of migrants on July 30th, which the PSOE admits caught the Moncloa off guard, a window of opportunity has opened just two weeks ago that neither Sánchez nor Ferraz wanted to miss: the mobilization in favor of the right to housing. A new framework for public debate that has led Sánchez to dissolve the Cortes and call early elections to try to capitalize on the unrest and renew confidence in a left-wing government. "The party is enthusiastic," asserts a leader, who believes that the housing issue and the symbol of struggle that Maricarmen Abascal has become has generated a turning point in their ranks.

"We will see a Pedro Sánchez turned into Mélenchon," predicts a former minister in allusion to the leader of the French far-left. He takes the speech to justify it: "We need more support to bend the elites," said Sánchez the day he announced the electoral call. For this veteran socialist leader, it implies a return to the origins of the PSOE: to the shirt and jeans, and to a discourse of class struggle adapted by Laclau's populism under the dichotomy of the "those above" against "those below." A new narrative that seeks to mobilize young voters and get the elderly off the sofa by appealing to their most revolutionary university era and to stop the right and the far-right once again.

Will it work? In the PSOE they admit that it is very difficult, but they are convinced that Sánchez has no limits and that, even if he does not govern, he can ensure them a victory against all odds, eating up, if necessary, his entire left wing. For a leader close to Moncloa, this entire trajectory shows that the great strategist is none other than Pedro Sánchez himself and that Sanchismo may not have reached its end, but rather be just in the midst of a transformation.