Robert Yale Shapiro: The Republicans must look for a new leader: Vance and Rubio have also been left touched

BarcelonaRobert Yale Shapiro is a doctor of political science and associate dean of the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and specializes in American politics, public opinion, and political leadership. He speaks to ARA by phone from New York to assess the historic midterm elections that have given the majority of both chambers to the Democratic Party.

Is it a victory for the Democrats or a defeat for Trump?

— It is both things. It was also a victory for democracy, and the biggest part of that victory is precisely the defeat: democracy is defended by defeating Trump, who is an authoritarian leader. And because the challenges he has made to the integrity of the elections have turned out to be basically unfounded.

Trump himself immediately accepted the results.

— The Supreme Court had already given him signs with the verdict against him when he tried to discount 20,000 votes in California. That already indicated to him that the courts, which have defended him in many things, would defend the integrity of the elections.

All demographic groups have shifted towards the Democrats. The only ones that still vote more Republican, although much less than two years ago, are white men and especially white men without a university degree. What does this say about this presidency and the Republican Party?

— It says something about Trump that he is able to attract these voters. Since the 80s, these voters have been slowly moving away from the Democratic Party and this has been culminating as Democrats have adopted very progressive positions on social, moral, and religious issues. Working-class whites, both men and women, have moved away from the Democratic Party because it has not addressed the economic well-being of this group well. But the advances that Trump made among blacks and Latinos, and perhaps Asians, were made by basically attracting male voters without university degrees. The key group here, which is very interesting, is that Democrats perform better among women of all racial groups. And the other key group that Democrats have achieved has been young voters: the wind is blowing in favor of the Democrats for this group, but they should not take them for granted.

Regarding the key issues that have marked the vote, there is clearly the cost of living, affected by the war in Ukraine. But have issues such as corruption or the Epstein scandal also been decisive?

— Now we will see to what extent corruption becomes a much more prominent issue. The Democrats now have the opportunity, first of all, to push for the release of the Epstein files, and also to investigate corruption in the circle of Trump's friends and in Trump himself and his family.

What do you think will be the priority for the Democratic majority in Congress?

— What I think they should do, and Hakeem Jeffries [Democrat and likely leader of the majority in the lower house] has already hinted at it, is to focus on economic issues and healthcare. What they really need to do is reverse everything Trump has done with the cuts to food assistance, Medicaid, or Obamacare. The difficulty is that any law they pass to do so, Trump will veto. But they should pursue it forcefully, to keep these issues in the foreground ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. They must demonstrate that they are a party capable of doing something to improve people's lives.

Do you think that perhaps the Republican Party has learned a lesson from the correction at the polls?

— The lesson to be learned at this moment is that Trump was capable of helping the party ascend to the presidency. But clearly in the last two years he has damaged the party and now the party has to figure out how to recover from this, because Trump will no longer be in the picture when 2028 arrives. Everything will depend on which party leaders rise to the occasion and begin to adopt firm political positions. They must find who will lead the party in the future. The obvious people have evidently been Vance and Rubio, but they too have been affected in some way.

Many voices warned that with Trump, the United States was heading towards an autocracy. Do you believe this will be reversed now?

— Trump continues to be the president. There are many things he can do. He still controls the Immigration and Customs Enforcement and has full freedom of action in foreign policy. I do not think these elections will have any effect on relations with Europe. Congress has no power here, the only thing it controls is funding. Congress could, for example, vote to increase aid to Ukraine. But Trump would veto it. And to override a presidential veto, you need two-thirds of both chambers. And that is very difficult.

After this result, is the idea that was being dropped of a third Trump term, even if it were unconstitutional, ruled out?

— Constitutionally, he is prohibited from running for president in 2028. The only way he could become president, though it is very unlikely, is if the Republicans win the presidency in 2028 and control the House of Representatives, and they appoint Trump as Speaker of the House, and then the president and vice president resign. And he would become president without having been elected. This is the only way. But you can imagine what the reaction to something like that would be. And, besides, especially after these elections, I don't think any Republican would want that.

The Democrats also have to find a candidate for 2028. Do you think they could bet on someone from the most progressive branch, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

— To win the presidency they must present a more moderate candidate. They could have someone from that wing perhaps as vice president, but a person from the socialist branch is not the path they should follow if they want to win the presidency in 2028.