The political maneuver that could expel Netanyahu from politics

With the results of the parliamentary elections in Israel on the table, some possible scenarios open up, although caution must accompany any speculation, because these are very diverse scenarios that could easily go in one direction or the opposite. The only thing clear in principle is that Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his majority in Parliament, largely due to the high number of seats obtained by the Arab parties.

It is most likely that Gadi Eisenkot, leader of Yashar, the second most-voted party after Likud, will attempt to form a government. In any case, we cannot rule out that other opposition leaders, such as Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman, might also propose themselves for prime minister, as they have suggested during the campaign. This could create strong tensions within the ranks of the opposition.

Lieberman and other opposition leaders have said that under no circumstances will they allow the Arab parties to enter the government. If they keep their word, we will head towards a repeat of the elections. There is the possibility that the Arab parties could provide support from the outside to an arithmetically minority government, but it would be a very unstable situation that would in no way last for the four years of the legislative term.

A speculation that has been circulating in Israel over the last few weeks is as follows. First, the Knesset would be constituted. The Zionist opposition together with the Arab parties would replace the Speaker of the Parliament, who is currently Amir Ohana of the Likud, and would choose another from among their own ranks. Next, the Knesset would pass a law that would prevent a politician accused in court (Netanyahu) from being able to be prime minister. And then Parliament would be dissolved and new elections would be called.

This maneuver would remove Netanyahu from Israeli politics permanently. But it is not certain that it can be done, because it would need the approval of the Supreme Court. The weak point of the maneuver is that the new law would be directed against a specific person, Benjamin Netanyahu, and therefore the Supreme Court would reject it, as some jurists have pointed out.

If this maneuver does not succeed, immediate elections would be called, in which Netanyahu could run. The current prime minister has revealed himself once again as a political animal of the first magnitude, and he will fight with all his might to continue leading the country, and above all to change its identity in the direction of creating an even more Zionist Israel with institutions closer to the right and the far right.

The birth of a new country

Given the election results, it will be necessary to wait days, weeks, or even months to see how the crisis evolves, without forgetting that we are facing a profound shake-up from which a new country is emerging that is more conservative, more Zionist, and more religious than the one we know. Although Israel does not have a Constitution for obvious reasons, it can be said that the country's crisis is fully constitutional, and all signs point to the fact that we are witnessing the birth of a new country.

The struggle that Netanyahu has maintained in recent years against the state created in 1948 by socialist visionaries and their institutions will continue. Even if he is forced to leave political life, his ideas will likely not disappear, because a considerable part of the Israeli population accepts them.