The Palestinians of Israel have the key to the elections, but nobody wants to make a deal with them

BarcelonaMany people do not know this, but 20% of Israel's population is Palestinian. And for the first time in its history, this minority could be key in tipping the result of the Israeli elections on October 27th. Polls point to a 50-50 tie between the governing bloc of Benjamin Netanyahu's right and far-right and the liberal opposition forces. With this almost unprecedented scenario, the Arab minority would hold the key to Netanyahu's defeat, a candidate who is under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for the genocide in Gaza. However, in a context of strong anti-Arab racism, neither the government nor the opposition wants to reach agreements with the parties that represent them. Last month, the electoral board banned all Arab parties from running in the elections, as well as the communists of the only party that brings together Arabs and Jews. The decision was so discriminatory that the Supreme Court reversed it, but only partially. The United Arab List (Ra'am) will be able to run, as will the Unified List. The candidate from one of their parties, Sami Abu Shehadeh, remains banned. The Jewish communist candidate Ofer Cassif will also be able to run. In contrast, Israeli far-right parties with candidates who are under international sanctions for human rights violations have been able to run without problems.

Shehadeh withdrew his candidacy after the president of the Supreme Court warned him that the majority of the court's judges supported his expulsion for an article he published the day after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. In the text, he defined those attacks as "an important historical event, from a political, military, and strategic point of view," which the magistrates interpret as an apology for terrorism. "I have defended human rights throughout my 30-year career, and it is a racist like [the ultra-security minister Itamar] Ben Gvir, who has promoted my disqualification, which is the result of a climate of generalized racism," Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, explains to ARA. According to him, the underlying motive is to hinder the participation of Palestinian citizens of Israel: "Netanyahu and Ben Gvir know that if the Arab-Palestinian community participates in the upcoming elections, it will be the main obstacle to them renewing their mandate."

The Arab community in Israel exceeds two million people and is made up of the Palestinians who were not expelled in the violent process of creating the State of Israel in 1947-48 and their descendants. It is mostly represented by two large coalitions. The Unified List, which groups the Hadash party (a left-wing formation to which Jews and Arabs belong), Ta'al (which defends the rights of Palestinian citizens of Israel) and Balad (which demands a single state with equal rights above ethnic or religious affiliation). Shehadeh is the main leader of Balad. The three formations run in a coalition to avoid splitting the vote and to manage to exceed the 3.25% support threshold required by Israeli law to enter the Knesset, the Parliament. Hadash currently has three deputies and Ta'al two. The other large Arab formation is Ra'am (United Arab List), led by Mansour Abbas. Of a conservative Islamist sign, it has always focused on negotiating services and benefits for Palestinian citizens of Israel. Having participated in the large governing coalition of Israel in 2021-22, which was a parenthesis in Netanyahu's reign, did not save them from the initial exclusion by the electoral board either. They currently have five seats in the Israeli Parliament.

The Unified List and the United Arab List are the only two candidacies of Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, out of the 38 running in the elections. Although they may hold the key to the defeat of the current governing coalition, given the polarization of Jewish citizens. The Israeli authorities had previously disqualified Palestinian parties and candidates, but the exclusion of all lists is unprecedented. Due to the discrimination against non-Jews within Israeli society, the participation of Palestinians who have citizenship is historically low: in 2021 it remained at 44.6% and in 2022 at 53.2%, well below the total average, which rises to 70%.

Netanyahu's throwing weapon

Netanyahu often resorts to the argument that the opposition has no chance of unseating him without the support of the Arab parties. A support that 70% of the Israeli Jewish population rejects. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff with a great reputation for his discipline, to whom no corruption scandals are known, has ruled out from the beginning of the campaign that he is willing to form a coalition with the parties of the Palestinian minority. He has set as a condition for government partners that they recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, support mandatory military service also for the Orthodox, and recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be destroyed. Explicitly, he has ruled out an agreement with Ra'am, the formation most open to making a pact with them.

Even Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist opposition, has ruled out governing again with the United Arab List. If the Arab parties obtain a good result, they could facilitate a minority government from the outside, but, if the other parties maintain the veto on making a pact with them, it could lead to precipitating an electoral repetition, with Netanyahu at the head of a caretaker government.