The Democratic victory in the USA, a triumph also for Ukraine?

BarcelonaIf the midterm elections were an opportunity to curb Donald Trump's "bad ideas" – in the words of American diplomat Daniel Fried – the Democratic victory could be read as a counterbalance to the U.S. president's fluctuations in his positioning regarding Ukraine. And it will be, in part, but possibly not as much as the Ukrainians would like because the New York tycoon will continue to have the final word on foreign affairs. However, paradoxically, an internally weakened Trump could also use foreign policy to project power and seek victories that could also reinforce him internally.

The Democratic triumph in the midterms leaves a Congress favorable to Ukraine, but the limited capacity of both chambers to transform support for Kyiv into tangible actions has already been evidenced in the first two years of Trump's second administration. Congress can influence military assistance to Ukraine, NATO funding, and sanctions against Russia, but these two years since Trump's return to the White House have shown that the chambers' sympathy toward Ukraine – despite the Republican majority – is useless in the face of a Trump who has not requested Congressional approval for more military assistance funding for Ukraine since his return to the White House. During Joe Biden's term, Congress – with a Democratic majority – approved five bills to help Ukraine, through which 164 billion dollars (about 146 billion euros) were allocated to the country at war.

One of the most immediate effects of the change of color in the US Congress may be that aid to Ukraine is back on the table, but that alone will not solve in the short term the shortage of equipment that Kyiv suffers to defend itself against Russian drones and missiles. Aid to Ukraine reaches Congress in the form of emergency spending bills that must be voted on in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and which are then signed by the president. Thus, they are subject to the will of the White House, which is also the one that decides which weapons are sent and at what pace. Furthermore, the withholding of military equipment would not be a novelty either: it has been a measure used by Trump these past two years as a pressure tactic on the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. This distancing from Kyiv contrasts with the shameless rapprochement with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to whom the New York tycoon has drawn even closer in recent weeks out of electoral necessity to try to appease the increase in diesel prices.

If Trump has not reached a consensus on his foreign policy with Congress when there was a Republican majority, governing by executive decree, nothing suggests that now, with a Democratic majority, this will change, and it is unlikely that a Democratic Congress will limit Trump's foreign policy. The Democrats do not have enough of a majority to be able to veto laws and, in fact, the one who has already said that he will veto the legislative initiatives that come out of Congress is Trump himself.

An asset for peace?

A Democratic Congress will not necessarily mean that Trump will act with more caution. In fact, in foreign policy, it could translate into the complete opposite, warns Majda Ruge, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). With internal weakness due to the brake on his political and economic agenda now posed by Democratic chambers, the Republican could redouble his efforts in foreign policy. This could imply, Ruge warns, that his final two years in office will be even more unpredictable. In the case of Ukraine, the Republican could have an interest in projecting himself as a peacemaker, attempting to capitalize on a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, celebrating victories he cannot achieve in the US, and securing a legacy in foreign policy.

Russia and Ukraine will resume negotiations next week, after nine months and a new push from Trump, who until now has advocated for a peace that implies territorial concessions from the invaded country. In Moscow, there is a sense of urgency to reach a peace agreement that is beneficial to it, in which the Kremlin can capitalize on its proximity to Washington. According to the Russian press, the window of opportunity to achieve it is about two months, as they calculate that from January onwards, cooperation between the US and Russia will be severely damaged and Atlantic unity in support of Ukraine will return.

Russian urgency is also demonstrated by the Kremlin's quick response to the Republicans' defeat. While Zelensky has remained silent after the Republicans' defeat, Russia has been quick to clarify that the Democratic triumph in the midterm elections must not change anything. "President Trump remains in power and we sincerely hope that he will persist in his peacemaking efforts," said Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov.

Beyond Trump, the boost to the Democrats provided by the midterm elections must also help determine the party's course in foreign policy and outline what the agenda for Ukraine of a future Democratic administration could be.