Europe moves away from Trump and closer to Sánchez's 'No to war' stance

BrusselsIt had been a while since Pedro Sánchez had seemed so comfortable in Brussels. He feels influential in European institutions by opposing the war in Iran, and capable of diverting attention from domestic problems, such as the lack of a budget. He knows that the European Union, although at first it seemed to be yielding to Donald Trump, has been gradually moving closer to its "No to war" stance and is increasingly distancing itself from the involvement in the conflict demanded by the White House. Following the same line as the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, the vast majority of leaders, to a greater or lesser extent, have asserted that "this is not Europe's war" and are increasingly openly accusing Trump of starting the conflict. The discourse adopted by Sánchez, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President António Costa, has been spreading among their counterparts. The consensus is once again—at least this week—that the European Union must defend international law and multilateralism.

In fact, this is reflected in the conclusions expected to be approved at Thursday's leaders' meeting. "The European Council calls for a gradual easing of restrictions and maximum restraint, and for full respect for international law by all parties, including the principles of the UN Charter and international humanitarian law," states the text, which ARA has obtained and which is being negotiated by the EU heads of state and government.

Even German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who completely closed ranks with Trump at the start of the conflict, called on Thursday for "the war to end" and expressed optimism. with the "signal" of the President of the United States And he interpreted this as the White House being "willing to end the fighting." The US leader's "signal" is that on Wednesday he claimed to be unaware of Israel's attack on the South Pars gas infrastructure. And he promised that if Iran stops its attacks on Qatari gas facilities, Tel Aviv will also stop attacking Iranian energy facilities.

Nevertheless, Sánchez has applauded the change of discourse of the President of the European CommissionUrsula von der Leyen, who more forcefully defended the rules-based world order as the days went by, as did many of the European partners, who have shifted towards positions more similar to those of the Élysée Palace or the Moncloa Palace. The Spanish Prime Minister also expressed his gratitude that Merz, although publicly criticizing Spain along with Trump for not increasing military spending to NATO levels, privately conveyed to the US President that Spain is a reliable partner. On the other hand, the head of the Spanish government also advocated for promoting the green transition to reduce energy dependencies and, in the long run, avoid energy crises like the one stemming from the Iran-Contra affair. Thus, he expressed his opposition to the intention of a bloc of countries, led by Italy and Germany, to reduce the EU's climate ambitions to mitigate the consequences of rising fossil fuel prices, which harm the competitiveness of European industry.

Regarding temporary measures, European leaders are considering a potential gas price cap, similar to the one first agreed upon during the war in Ukraine, reducing taxes on electricity bills, or state subsidies to help pay those bills. Even so, diplomatic sources predict that no concrete measures will be agreed upon at Thursday's summit. The heads of state and government have become bogged down in discussions about structural energy measures. One group of countries, led by Italy and Germany, advocates lowering climate ambitions and reducing financial compensation for the most polluting industries. Their argument is that environmental regulations like these negatively affect the European Union's competitiveness, especially against powers like China and the United States. Conversely, another bloc of member states, led primarily by Spain, defends the ecological transition and believes that boosting renewable energy is the only way to achieve energy independence and avoid crises like the current one. In fact, Sánchez has pointed out that these days Spain has paid a much lower price for energy (around 14 euros per megawatt hour) than, for example, Germany or Italy, where it exceeded 100 euros. "The lesson that Spain can offer to other countries is the commitment to renewables," said the Spanish president, who criticized that "some countries are taking advantage" of the war in Iran and the increase in fossil fuel prices to "question and weaken climate policies."

Orbán and his pre-election campaign

As usual, one of the main protagonists of the summit was once again the Hungarian Prime Minister, the pro-Russian Viktor Orbán. He is in the midst of his pre-election campaign, and polls predict a defeat for him. He has made Brussels and EU aid to Ukraine one of his main battlegrounds, and although he had already given his approval, he is now vetoing the ratification of the €90 billion microloan from the European bloc to Kyiv, crucial for Ukrainian troops to defend themselves against the Russian offensive, and the twentieth package of European sanctions against Moscow.

Most European leaders were confident they could convince Orbán, although diplomatic sources at the ARA were already rather pessimistic and considered it almost a lost cause until after the Hungarian elections. They noted that the elections aren't until April 12 and believe it's unlikely the Hungarian government will make any move before then. In fact, Budapest continues to block the microloan even though the EU and Ukraine have already agreed to repair the Druzhba pipeline, which was the condition Orbán had set for lifting the veto. This infrastructure, which was destroyed by Russia and will be repaired with European funds, connects Russia with Hungary and Slovakia, the two EU partners closest to Vladimir Putin's regime.

Orbán's relationship with the rest of the European leaders is going from bad to worse. The Hungarian prime minister had already given his approval to the microloan and, after a few weeks, reversed course and vetoed its ratification, which has outraged all his counterparts. Sources at the European Council say this is an unprecedented situation and describe his attitude as "unacceptable." Far from easing tensions, Orbán has upped the ante and, upon arriving at Thursday's summit, appeared even more belligerent than usual. "If the Hungarians don't receive the oil that belongs to us, I will not support any decision in favor of Ukraine," the Hungarian prime minister insisted. Nevertheless, diplomatic sources from several member states are hoping that Orbán will lose the elections, as the polls predict, and that this will be his last European Council meeting. In this way, the European Union would finally rid itself of one of its biggest thorns in the side, especially in the context of Vladimir Putin's expansionist regime.