The future of Brussels and Kyiv lies in Budapest
Giant images of Volodymyr Zelensky fill billboards during the election campaign in Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has decided to turn the general elections on April 12 into a referendum on the war in Ukraine and, in doing so, fuel the war psychosis that already guaranteed him a strong majority in 2022. The Fidesz leader has been in power for sixteen uninterrupted years, built on assumptions about the future. Since 2010, Orbán and his party—which has become a benchmark for the transatlantic far right—have managed to construct a vast partisan media ecosystem, at the heart of which is the National Communications Office, under the prime minister's watchful eye. Billions of euros invested in communication campaigns and a coordinated social media strategy are complemented by the creation of grassroots activist movements that amplify the arguments, theories, and accusations dictated by Fidesz.
In Orbán's speeches, Zelensky is the aggressor destabilizing Hungary, and the opposition leader, Péter Magyar, is the "puppet" of Brussels and Kyiv. This rhetoric filled the streets of Budapest this weekend. Hungary's National Day, March 15, became a fierce competition, both in terms of numbers and narratives, between Orbán and Magyar, the leader of the conservative Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party, which is leading Fidesz by 10 points in the polls.
Two massive demonstrations, with opposing ideologies, marched through the capital. Orbán's supporters carried banners with the slogan "We will not be a Ukrainian colony," while the opposition leader accused the prime minister of seeking the Kremlin's help to stay in power.
Budapest is embroiled in a bitter dispute with Zelensky. Orbán accuses Kyiv of intentionally delaying repairs to the Drujba pipeline—attacked by drones in late January—which transports Russian oil through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Budapest and Bratislava are exempt from EU sanctions on Russian oil and, at the same time, are the two European Union countries opposing the €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv's war effort, which the EU has been trying to approve since December and which requires the unanimous support of the 21 member states. Furthermore, Orbán has also blocked the twentieth package of EU sanctions against Russia, while voices are beginning to emerge within the EU in favor of initiating talks with Moscow.
The European Commission has decided to intervene to defuse the dispute and has pledged to send an investigative mission to inspect the Drujba pipeline. However, a journalistic investigation has revealed that the Kremlin has instead commissioned the Moscow-based IT firm Agency for Social Design (ASP), known for its disinformation campaigns, to intervene and bolster Orbán's campaign. AI-generated videos—such as the story depicting a Hungarian father being executed on a battlefield while his family waits for him at home—and messages announcing the imminent emergence of a sex scandal—assumed to involve Magyar—have heightened the toxicity of the campaign, making Orbán increasingly nervous. Neither the explicit support of the entire MAGA movement, nor US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to Budapest, nor the Kremlin's interference have, for the moment, lowered expectations for Magyar, a politician who has appropriated certain elements of populist communication style, symbolic language, and symbolic rhetoric, and who threatens Orbán's hegemony. While the prime minister made war and the oil pipeline the key issues of his campaign, Magyar focused on everyday concerns: the burden of the housing bubble, rising prices, and the downward revision of growth forecasts. But above all, it is Fidesz's business machine that is currently faltering. Orbán has built a system that has used public institutions and resources to systematically reshape the Hungarian state from top to bottom. Furthermore, for over a decade, he has invested tens of millions of euros in building an illiberal global network and a system of local patronage that has guaranteed him extraordinary influence.
Orbán's list of challenges is long: violations of the separation of powers and the independence of public media, persecution of the political and social opposition, an "organized fraud system"—denounced by the Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF)—involving European funds, demonization, and authoritarianism.
Both Kyiv and Brussels await the results of April 12th to envision future scenarios for a European Union that is fragmenting by the minute. When, on May 22, 2015, at a summit of heads of state and government in Riga, the then President of the Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, greeted Orbán with "here comes the dictator" while raising his right arm and playfully slapping him (a trademark gesture), he was giving impetus to a process of autocratization that has become a European counterpower.
