Bolsonarism seeks a new leader outside the Bolsonaro clan

São PauloThe Brazilian far-right is looking for a formula that has so far proven unsuccessful for everyone who has tried to put it into practice: keeping Bolsonarism alive without any member of the Bolsonaro family exercising leadership. The flight of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to the United States, forty-eight hours after losing the presidential election to Lula da Silva, and the subsequent coup-mongering statement – a botch that had three successive versions, in which it went from self-proclaiming as "president-elect" to presenting himself as "leader of Brazil" – have generated widespread criticism in extremist circles, where a feeling of abandonment, betrayal, and frustration prevails.

Although he will not hold any elected office starting in February, which will lead to the loss of parliamentary immunity for the first time in 24 years, Bolsonaro the son had committed to leading a movement with considerable political capital: the 59.8 million votes obtained in the runoff –a figure higher than the 58.2 million achieved by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, in 2022–, the status of the leading force in Congress and the Senate, and a strong and consolidated network of governors, with regional parliamentary majorities in the southeast, the richest region of the country, and in the south.

However, history repeats itself: once again, the Bolsonaros prioritize particular and family interests. This time, with a secret and preventive flight that has had the explicit support of the Trump administration and the Argentine libertarian government, even though Flávio is not a defendant nor does he have any arrest warrant issued by the Brazilian justice system.

The two investigations opened at the Supreme Court in which he is involved have nothing to do with political activity. The first focuses on the financing of a biopic of his father, which in reality could be a mechanism to divert the collected funds towards other activities not yet clarified. The second investigates the business relationship with his bosom friend, the lawyer Willer Tomaz, whose assets worth 900 million euros have been frozen due to suspicions that he may be laundering capital of uncertain origin and evading foreign currency.

Flávio Bolsonaro's attempt to become a sort of Brazilian Juan Guaidó does not convince his allies. The Venezuelan opposition leader, who also settled in the United States, self-proclaimed himself interim president of Venezuela in January 2019, with the recognition of Washington and dozens of countries, in an attempt to displace Nicolás Maduro from power because he considered his reelection in the controversial electoral process of May 2018 illegitimate.

The Bolsonaros, against the ropes

Flávio Bolsonaro has followed in the footsteps of his brother, former federal deputy Eduardo, who left for the United States of his own volition in February 2025 and against whom there is now an arrest warrant from the Brazilian justice system for having promoted the "tarifaço" of Trump.

The senator had already said time and again that, in the event of reaching the Palácio do Planalto, he would have decreed the pardon of his father, the former president Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempted coup d'état. Although the reduction of the sentence and a possible release from prison remain a plausible scenario, due to the pressure from the Senate and because they could contribute to pacifying a Supreme Court as polarized as Brazilian society itself, neither of the two measures would entail the recovery of political rights.

The other two sons have obtained elected positions for the state of Santa Catarina, currently the most extremist in Brazil: Carlos Bolsonaro, as senator, and Jair Renan, as federal deputy. Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle, is now a senator for Brasília. All polls indicated that she was a highly competitive presidential candidate, because she would have mobilized the conservative female vote and that of the evangelical electorate, thanks to her profile as a religious fundamentalist. However, she arouses many internal reservations within the clan itself, where she embodies the archetype of the wicked stepmother from children's fairy tales: she is hated by all her stepchildren and, moreover, she awakens the distrust of her own husband, a misogynist.

The Bolsonaros, weakened, may lose for the first time the control of the extreme right in Brazil, which they have led until now. In this context, the figure of Tarcísio de Freitas emerges, who has just been re-elected governor of São Paulo, the most important state in the country.

The former minister of Jair Bolsonaro, to whom he has always shown himself to be loyal and grateful, was already the favorite of the business world and the financial market to be the candidate in these presidential elections, because he embodied the profile of a "public manager" and "moderate Bolsonarista," if that is even possible. He is a consensus figure within the far-right, and in 2030 he will not be able to opt for a third consecutive term as governor. With this window of opportunity open, the big question is whether De Freitas will be capable of taking the step and embarking on his own path, even without the blessing of his mentor, who in this last electoral cycle has already made it clear that family interests come above any other consideration.