The OECD improves the growth forecasts of the Spanish economy

BarcelonaThe Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has again revised upwards Spain's growth forecast for this year to 2.6%, four tenths of a percentage point higher than the estimates made in June. Furthermore, the organization has also revised upwards by one tenth of a percentage point Spain's forecasts for 2027, due to an improvement in domestic demand of one tenth. Thus, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) of the State for 2027 is placed at 1.8%.

According to the data published this Wednesday by the OECD, Spain is once again positioned as the leading economy in the eurozone where GDP will increase the most. However, the OECD is increasing the inflation estimate for this year to 3.7%, 0.4 percentage points more than in the June forecasts. It also foresees a rise in prices in 2027, to 3.4%, 0.5 points more than in the last study. The report warns of "considerable uncertainty" due to the war in the Middle East. The OECD is the think-tank for countries with the most advanced economies which, among others, also produces the well-known PISA educational report.

The improvement in Spain's economic forecast is due to "strong domestic demand" during the second quarter, but it is countered by a "moderation" of global growth. In comparison with the last OECD report from June, global activity will improve by one tenth, to 2.9%, during 2026, but will worsen slightly towards 2027, from 3.1% to 3%.

According to the organization's figures, the eurozone's GDP will increase by 1% in 2026, 0.2 basis points more than the June estimates. But it highlights that the growth for 2027, also at 1%, will be 0.2 percentage points lower than the calculations shared before the summer. Despite everything, it forecasts that domestic demand will strengthen when energy prices "normalize" and "new defense initiatives" are incorporated.

From the organization headquartered in Paris, they estimate that inflation in the eurozone will be 3% in 2026, two tenths more than the figures published in June, and 2.9% in 2027, 0.5 percentage points more.

Outside of Europe, the organization has left its growth forecast for the Chinese economy unchanged, maintaining it at 4.3% this year, although it lowers it by one tenth, to 4.2%, for the following year. Conversely, it does foresee an improvement, albeit slight, in the case of the United States, for which it predicts an annual GDP increase of 2.2% and 2.1% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, along with a gradual fall in inflation, which will peak this year with an average of 3.6%.

AI: Strength and doubts at the same time

In the study, the OECD has highlighted that global economies have remained "strong" despite the "adverse effects" derived from the conflict in Iran thanks to oil reserves, supply from other economies outside the Persian Gulf, and the aid provided by governments to "mitigate" economic impacts.

Furthermore, it has highlighted that the "strong and continuous" activity related to the development of artificial intelligence (AI) has helped to "boost" investment, production, and international trade. However, it has also added nuances: according to the institution, the profitability of investment in artificial intelligence could "disappoint or take longer" than expected to materialize. This fact could trigger a "sudden change in investor sentiment" and reduce their financial contributions, which would be transferred to industries associated with AI, such as engineering or construction. Additionally, the economic outlook report asserts that the economic benefits of developers must increase "rapidly" to be able to meet the "expectations" of investors.

However, the organization has warned that economies depend on the duration of the conflict in Iran, and points out that the increase in refinery margins due to bottlenecks is beginning to be passed on to final consumer prices and business costs. In fact, it has warned that "inflationary pressure" and "weaker real income growth" for families, as well as higher interest rates, will "moderate" the momentum of production in the short term in many economies.

The OECD has assured that "further adjustments to economic policy will be needed if growing signs of pressure are observed". The document highlights that almost a third of central banks have raised the price of money since March, although "in many cases modestly". Nevertheless, taking into account the energy crisis and inflation "above" the target, the OECD has called for "ensuring" that underlying inflationary pressures remain "contained" for longer.