The PP narrowly misses absolute majority in Andalusia with Vox on the decline, according to the CIS

MadridJuanma Moreno could save himself "the mess" of a pact with Vox, according to the pre-election survey by the Sociological Research Center (CIS). The PP would maintain an absolute majority, although the option with "most probability" is that it will be by a narrow margin. The CIS forecasts that the popular candidate would obtain 55 seats, which is exactly the number of deputies needed to not depend on any other parliamentary group in the Andalusian chamber. It is a result, however, that is worse than what Moreno obtained in 2022, when he secured 58 seats. However, Vox is also declining and would obtain 13 deputies, which is one less than four years ago, and would not be decisive. In contrast, the left —both the PSOE and the candidacies Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía— would improve results without the increase in deputies giving them the option to unseat the right.

The acting Andalusian president, who represents the most moderate soul of the PP, has shown reluctance to pact with the far-right in this pre-campaign — it officially begins next Friday. "Stability or mess" is the dichotomy that Moreno presents to Andalusians. That is, the only possible choice is between a popular absolute majority or forcing him to go through the ordeal of negotiating with Vox. The PP candidate wants to avoid having to submit to the demands of Santiago Abascal's party and having to replicate the pacts they have already closed with their counterparts in Extremadura and Aragon. Moreno has distanced himself from the principle of "national priority" in access to public aid, which has marked the agreements signed by the popular parties of Extremadura and Aragon, and which the popular leadership has now also adopted — albeit with nuances that have caused a confrontation with Vox at the state level.

However, the bulk of the CIS survey was conducted before According to the CIS, however, "the brake on immigration" is not the main reason that can lead to voting for one party or another in the Andalusian elections. "The improvement of public healthcare" is the main factor, followed by "the solution to the housing problem." The migratory issue is in third position, more than 40 points behind the first concern.

Montero resists

With this framework the left grows. However, the CIS confirms that the PSOE is far from ousting Moreno, although it predicts that the Andalusian adventure of the former vice-president of the Spanish government, María Jesús Montero, will serve to prevent the socialists from worsening their results. The poll gives them as the option with "most probability" of securing 31 seats, which is one more than the socialist candidate obtained in 2022, Juan Espadas. An improvement that, however, continues to condemn the PSOE to the role of opposition. The increase in the two candidacies to its left also does not serve to position itself as a real alternative to the president of the Andalusian PP. The unity candidacy of Por Andalucía, led by the leader of IU, Antonio Maíllo, the leader of IU, and which brings together Sumar and Podemos, would obtain six seats, one more than in the previous elections. The splinter group Adelante Andalucía would double its results to four deputies.