Anatomy of a wear: why do polls punish Illa halfway through the legislature?

BarcelonaSalvador Illa reaches this Saturday the equator of his mandate at the head of the Generalitat, and does so by facing a phenomenon well known to political science: the wear and tear of government action. Demoscopy shows us that after victory at the polls, the PSC experienced an upward rebound. However, as the legislature has progressed and the harshness of daily management has taken hold, citizen support has been suffering a constant and progressive decline until hitting rock bottom and settling at the lowest point of support since the start of the mandate. How is this cycle of loss of popularity explained and what real options does the PSC have to recover lost ground before the next elections?

When a political party comes to power, it experiences an initial phase of popular momentum known as the "honeymoon" period. In conversation with l’ARA, Marc Guinjoan, a professor of political science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, explains that in the first few months after an election, the party entering government "suffers a cycle of popularity." A period in which "the party is expected to obtain slightly better results in polls," highlights the expert. Guinjoan underlines that this rapid rise responds to a "winner's bandwagon effect", as "people join the winning party" thanks to the new leader's momentum. "There is always this space of having faith in the new governing party", points out Núria Franco, a political science professor at the Open University of Catalonia. Contacted by l’ARA, the expert highlights, furthermore, that this effect in Catalonia was seen as "accentuated by being a kind of announcement of the death of the Process" and by being able to form "a government on its own". In addition, Franco explains that this favorable scenario has been prolonged by the lack of "clear opposition", as the one who "should be the leader of the opposition is not present in Parliament" —referring to Carles Puigdemont, leader of Junts—, leaving the PSC with a "less adverse" context.The honeymoon counter

However, as the legislature progresses, relatively quickly, enthusiasm fades, giving way to the "honeymoon effect." Guinjoan details that, although this effect is not mathematical, after the first few months, executives "begin to lose support" in the polls. The reason for this wear and tear is the clash between expectations and management. According to the expert, the "promises made at the beginning are very encouraging," but over time citizens realize that "things cannot change so quickly and people, eventually, also get disappointed."

This accumulated disappointment makes the midpoint of the term "the lowest point of popularity for presidencies," highlights Guinjoan. Franco corroborates this phase of wear and tear in the first two years of Illa, as "it is a government that has encountered very fundamental problems." The professor recalls that the socialist executive has faced issues that diminish confidence, such as "the chaos of Rodalies, which they are not managing to clean up," in addition to the error with the PISA tests: "It doesn't seem like something that will help much with the government's popularity."

The recovery

Despite this loss of popularity, the downturn is not permanent. Guinjoan points out that support for the ruling party "tends to recover" as we approach new elections. When elections arrive, support "returns to a value relatively similar to what it was in the last elections." Despite not having a clear explanation, this recovery phase occurs because the disappointment generated by "initial unfulfilled promises is softened".

With the elections on the horizon, experts highlight that "voter mechanisms" are activated, causing "things that have not happened to be relativized." Guinjoan narrates that citizens have to "position themselves in one political party or another and value the alternatives," and often find that the executive is an "effective alternative." Political science, therefore, predicts a return to the starting position — as long as there is no government upheaval — where people who had stopped voting out of disappointment will "get back in line" before the polls.