Puigdemont and Aragonès are competing for second place, still far from Salvador Illa, according to CEO

BarcelonaThe PSC remains ahead in the polls a month and a half before the 12-M elections. Also in the latest barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) made public this Thursday, even though the poll was conducted before the announcement by the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, of advancing the elections. Be that as it may, if the parliamentary elections were held today, the socialists would revalidate the victory of three years ago and would aim to obtain between 35 and 42 seats, a slight setback compared to the November survey (the November poll) (39-45). Behind them would be ERC, with 26-32 seats and an average rating of its government by Catalans of 4.3 (the same as the Spanish government's). The Republicans see Junts approaching them, which would rise to 24-29 seats. The poll data was collected between February 9 and March 7. Precisely on the last day, the agreement for the amnesty law was materialized and approved in the Justice Commission of the Congress. During this period, the Koldo case also broke out, which implicates the former Minister of Transport, the socialist José Luis Ábalos, and in early February, farmers began to mobilize in the streets.

Republicans and Junts supporters remain far from Salvador Illa, but it is Junts who is regaining ground compared to the last poll. The Junts supporters had fallen back to 19-24 deputies in the barometer after July 23 and the investiture agreement between Junts and the PSOE. Now, however, Carles Puigdemont's party would improve its seats and percentage of votes (15-18%), while ERC would suffer a certain setback compared to last November, when the CEO awarded it 20% of the votes (now it gets between 17% and 20%) and between 29 and 34 deputies. The poll does not yet include what effect Carles Puigdemont's candidacy in the May 12 elections may have (this afternoon the former president of the Generalitat must confirm his candidacy).

In the pro-independence bloc, which has suffered a significant drop in the last two elections (municipal and Spanish), the CUP would achieve similar results to the last Catalan elections (7-10 deputies) and could make it possible to revalidate the sovereignist majority in Parliament, even though this legislature has already proven to be sterile. In fact, the ranges used by the CEO are so wide that it could either be maintained or lost (57-71 deputies, with the absolute majority being 68), but always with a downward trend compared to the 74 deputies (and 51% of the votes) that, adding the extra-parliamentary parties, were obtained in 2021.

For the moment, the CEO does not consider that there is room in the Catalan chamber for a fourth pro-independence space, which obtains no deputies in the survey. It is true, however, that when the survey was conducted, it was not yet known if there would be any candidacy on this flank, and now there are at least two aspiring to it: the one that Jordi Graupera and Clara Ponsatí will present, or that of Aliança Catalana, the party of the mayor of Ripoll, Sílvia Orriols. Regarding this latter formation, the director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, has explained that the spontaneous responses they have received from respondents who claim they would vote for this far-right party do not reach 1%. "This was the situation at time 0, when the elections were called," said Muñoz.

Even if he wins the elections, Salvador Illa would have difficulty becoming president, because he would need a pact with the commons (they would obtain a maximum of 55 deputies) but would still need the endorsement of ERC or Junts, who maintain the veto on making the PSC leader president.

Triple tie for fourth place

There are parties that have not yet confirmed who their candidate will be, such as the PP, a party where there is an open power struggle between the state leadership and Alejandro Fernández for his candidacy.a power struggle between the state leadership and Alejandro Fernández for his candidacy. Whoever it is, the Popular Party starts with an advantage in the race for the fourth position in Parliament. The CEO predicts that today they would obtain between 9 and 13 parliamentarians, but in a triple tie with the commons and Vox. The Popular Party would gather most of the votes from Citizens, which would not manage to stay in Parliament, while the far-right would remain between 9-13 deputies. The commons are losing the effect of July 23 (the November survey gave them between 10 and 14 seats) and would be placed between 8 and 13 deputies. It remains to be seen how their no to the budgets affects them.

In general, the independentist parties suffer a setback compared to the deputies they currently have in Parliament. The PSC is the party that takes the largest share of the abstentionists' cake (17%), followed by ERC and Junts. And this is a large pool, considering that the 2021 elections registered a record low in participation, affected by the pandemic.

The main vote leakage that ERC could have would be with Junts, because 8% of its voters would now opt for Carles Puigdemont's party. On the other hand, only 4% of Junts voters would opt for ERC, but there is a 7% who would opt for other parties, and in this section would include Aliança Catalana or Alhora, the party of Ponsatí and Graupera. The PP, Citizens, and Vox are the parties that have a higher percentage of voters who this time would opt for abstention.

Political leaders' approval ratings

Jaume Asens, Sumar's negotiator and the commons' candidate in the European elections, becomes the best-rated leader in this poll with a score of 5.5 (only 41% of Catalans know him). He overtakes ERC's leader, Oriol Junqueras, who passes with a 5.2. They are followed by the commons' leader in Parliament, Jéssica Albiach, with a 5 (and also a 43% recognition rate), and the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, who gets a 4.9, ahead of Míriam Nogueras (4.8) (47% recognition) and Carles Puigdemont (4.1). Precisely the former President of the Generalitat is the one who gets the highest rating among his voters (7.9). In the case of ERC, republican sympathizers give Junqueras a better score (7.3) than Aragonès (6.5).

Regarding the leader of the PSC, Salvador Illa, he falls three tenths short of passing (4.7), the same as the CUP deputy Xavier Pellicer. The leader of the PP, Alejandro Fernández, obtains a 2.6, below Lorena Roldán (PP) and ahead of Carlos Carrizosa (2), from Ciutadans.

Support for independence and amnesty law

The percentage of those in favour and against independence does not vary much. In this month's March survey, support for self-determination stands at 42%, one point higher than in November; while the no to independence continues to be the majority with 51%, one point less than four months ago. Regarding the referendum, the percentage of those in favour remains 76% (in November it was 73%), compared to 18% who are against it. Furthermore, 33% are in favour of achieving independence through an agreed-upon method, compared to 9% who favour using the unilateral path. Voters for the CUP (42%) and Junts (28%) are the ones who show the most favour towards taking this latter path, compared to 12% of ERC sympathizers.

Regarding the opinion on the amnesty law, there are no major changes either. 62% of those surveyed are in favor (two points higher than in November), compared to 29% who are against it. Voters for Junts, ERC, the CUP, and the Commons are the ones who give the most support to the law, followed by those of the PSC. The percentage of socialists who approve of the amnesty has grown compared to four months ago: it has gone from 49% to 60%.