Feijóo's match point

BarcelonaWhen Pedro Sánchez called general elections in 2023, just after the Socialists' heavy defeat in the regional and municipal elections, Alberto Núñez Feijóo already saw himself as the winner. The pools of potential ministers were repeated throughout the campaign, and the speculations were primarily about whether the PP would reach 160 deputies and how far it would be willing to concede to Vox. No one, or very few, predicted that Pedro Sánchez would hold on to Moncloa. For this reason, the results of that July 23rd spread a sense of disappointment within the party towards the person who was supposed to save them from 'Sanchismo'. But they gave him a vote of confidence, taking into account that he had been at the head of the PP for little more than a year. That was the argument: Feijóo still lacked experience. Almost a year has passed and the popular leader now finds himself at the match point of his political career.

It has been difficult for the popular leader to resonate with the national conservative electorate. The 'populares' saw in Feijóo the mirror of the four absolute majorities he achieved in Galicia, where he governed for thirteen years. Nothing could be further from the truth. Feijóo does not handle the media overexposure to which national leaders are subjected particularly well, because it highlights his communication and discourse shortcomings. However, the political context he has encountered has not helped the popular leader either, with an unbridled Vox that has conditioned the strategy of a PP that has succumbed to the far-right in the autonomous regions – from limiting immigration to blurring policies against gender-based violence.

In fact, Feijóo has not only been determined by Vox, but the pressure has also come from within the party. Isabel Díaz Ayuso, president of the Community of Madrid, is the one who has set the pace for him in the cultural war that she has been waging against the left for months. Ayuso has placed her anti-abortion and also anti-immigration policies in the public debate. And, beyond whether Feijóo has subscribed to them or not, the fact is that she has ended up eclipsing the person who is the party president and national leader. While there is talk of Ayuso's policies, there is no talk of what Feijóo thinks – who also finds it difficult to make decisions and take a clear position on certain issues.

That is why it is not surprising that internally the narrative has always lingered that Ayuso wants to undermine Feijóo. That the Madrid president is warming up on the sidelines, waiting for her moment for when the Galician leader fails. However, it is also true that the appeal that Ayuso might have in Madrid—a territory where historically they have voted for popular leaders from the hard wing like Esperanza Aguirre—is not the same as in the rest of the State. In Andalusia, for example, until now a profile considered moderate like that of Juanma Moreno Bonilla had triumphed—although after his government pact with Vox it is difficult to keep that label for him—. In fact, his name had always been placed in the pools if at any moment the succession of Feijóo were to open.

Before arriving there, however, the popular leader has it in his hands to demonstrate that he can lead the PP to the Moncloa. Now, if he achieves the goal, the next challenge will be the coexistence with Santiago Abascal in the same executive, taking into account that it is almost impossible for the populars to achieve a majority wide enough to not depend on a rising Vox. It will be here where Feijóo will also risk it all and where, depending on how this political marriage goes, Isabel Díaz Ayuso can overtake him as the alternative to unite the far-right vote that Vox now gathers.