Trump's hot potatoes the day after the elections

WashingtonThe election day will change the configuration of Congress, but not many of the headaches with which the country is battling. Beyond having to deal with the new parliamentary arithmetic –and which at this moment looks complicated for the Republican–, Donald Trump will continue to have a war to resolve and inflation that does not seem to be contained.

War in Iran

The conflict in the Middle East has remained stagnant for months, and the only thing that seems to be evolving is price inflation following the blockade of Hormuz. The entry of Yemen's Houthis into the conflict, with attacks against Saudi Arabia and also threatening the Bab el-Mandeb maritime passage—which the Saudi monarchy had used as an alternative to Hormuz—has further inflamed the conflict in the region. The high disapproval among Americans regarding the war with Iran has caused Washington to behave with some caution toward the Houthis, despite the fact that Riyadh has repeatedly asked the White House for help.

Publicly and internally, Trump had set the midterm elections as a deadline to wait before undertaking any new attack against Iran. Even so, on Monday evening, U.S. forces conducted new "defensive" attacks" against Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz. But the fear of a possible new escalation in the region responds to reports from the last few weeks according to which the Pentagon had been studying various scenarios with which to resume attacks just after the elections. Axios reported this Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had also been pressuring the magnate to resume the offensive the day after the elections.

Cost of living

The price of gasoline and the shopping basket will continue to be one of the great burdens for Trump. A large part of the inflationary effect suffered by Americans is linked to the war in Iran and, as analysts have been explaining for some time, even if Hormuz were immediately reopened, it would take time to return to the pre-war scenario. The worsening inflation, which reached 3.7% in September, has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. A measure that goes completely against the Republican's wishes.

At the last meeting, the American central bank opted to keep interest rates in the same range, from 3.75% to 4%. The decision, which was taken just the week before the elections, also responds to the Fed's tendency to try not to indirectly influence the electoral climate when elections are approaching. However, analysts are already predicting that ahead of the next meeting in December, the Federal Reserve will raise rates again. A new hike would further compromise the tycoon's objectives and increase the questioning of how the Republican manages the economy.

Possible investigations

In addition to the old fronts that Trump has, depending on the majority that the Democrats obtain in Congress, new ones may be added. The top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia, has placed the corruption of Trump and his family as his top priority. Most likely, the Democrats will initiate investigations into how the Republican has benefited from the insider information that the office gives him and how he has also extended this enrichment to his closest circle.

Congressman Jamie Raskin has requested information about the businesses of Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his son Donald Trump Jr. Another congressman, Jason Crow, who is part of the Armed Services and Intelligence committees, ensures that he will also open an investigation into possible diversions of funds intended for defense that may have ended up in companies linked to the Trump family.

What may also reappear on the scene is the case of the Epstein papers. Although in the end it was possible to force the Department of Justice to agree to publish millions of documents related to the investigations into the pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, many of the papers never saw the light of day. Initially, it only published about 3.5 million pages of the 6 million it had in its possession, and justified that the rest were duplicates. Furthermore, there has been unease among congressmen from both parties due to the numerous redactions of content in some documents and the apparently accidental disclosure of victims' names in others.