The pocket or the disastrous war in Iran: the key issues that will decide the vote of the Americans

WashingtonThe mid-term elections arrive at the end of a year that began at a fast pace: the military incursion into Venezuela and the kidnapping of the Chavista leader Nicolás Maduro, the murder of two United States citizens at the hands of ICE and the start of the Iran war and the inability to put an end to another major war, that of Ukraine. All of this happened between January 3rd and February 28th. Since then, the great single issue has been the campaign in the Middle East and, above all, the rising price of gasoline, which has only worsened the cost of living for many households. These are the issues that will most mark the vote of United States citizens in crucial mid-term elections, which are also interpreted as a test for Donald Trump.

The pocketbook, a priority

"It's the economy, stupid", the phrase worn out in any campaign and context, but which continues to serve. In 2024 it was the unrest over the rising cost of living that dominated the campaign and, two years later, it is the same again. The economy stands as the main concern among voters in these elections, according to a Gallup poll, in which 50% say they consider it the "most important" issue.

In macroeconomic terms, inflation in the country is now at 3.7% and the unemployment rate is around 4.1%, even though the labor market has been destroying more jobs than it has been creating. In contrast, GDP continues to grow, at an annual rate of 3.4% during the third quarter of 2026. The former Fed chair, Jerome Powell, warned before the end of his term that he feared this growth was a bubble generated by the high growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. For the moment, the Federal Reserve has already had to raise rates again for the first time since 2023, and the country's public debt already exceeds 40 trillion dollars.

However, the indicators that Americans use are others closer at hand: the gas pump gauge and the price of ground beef. In December 2024, at the end of Biden's term, the average price of a pound of ground beef (about 453 grams) was 5.62 dollars; now it is bordering on 6.79 dollars, according to data from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. Regarding gasoline, before the war in Iran the gallon (about 3.7 liters) cost around 2.93 dollars, and currently it no longer drops below 4 dollars. The impact of the trade war is also another of the issues on the table, especially among ranchers and farmers.

Economic inequality

The loss of purchasing power has also influenced Americans' perception of how wealth is distributed. While they see how their president gets even richer in the Oval Office, or how the owners of large tech companies accumulate more capital thanks to the stock market, many Americans struggle with a landscape in which they have to tighten their belts. Especially among young people between 18 and 29 years old, who in an Axios survey pointed to economic inequality as the main threat to the country (33%), just behind Trump.

A recent Pew Research Center survey shows that six out of ten Americans (61%) believe that there is currently too much economic inequality in the United States. This is the same percentage as in 2019, but with one difference: now there is less tolerance towards this reality. Seven years ago, 29% of this group said that no type of inequality was acceptable; now this figure is 35%. Likewise, the percentage of Americans who believe that the economic system should be completely changed has increased from 14% to 24%.

Trump, immune to corruption

Concern about government corruption has also climbed in the rankings to become one of the major issues. The alliance between Trump and the great technological fortunes is a fact that the tycoon has not hidden, just as he has never rejected at any time the gifts from the Gulf petromonarchies. The current Air Force One with which the American president flies is the Boeing valued at millions that Qatar gifted him at the beginning of his term. Nevertheless, there is possibly the perception of how Trump makes use of his privileged position to benefit himself and the people around him. One only needs to remember the fiscal immunity he negotiated with his own government for himself and his family, or how his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has become one of the main diplomats of his administration.

Healthcare

Being able to go to the doctor under reasonable conditions has been climbing in the rankings of voter concerns, as shown by the Gallup poll, which places healthcare as the second most worrying issue for Americans. It is no coincidence that concern for this issue has increased: in July 2025, Trump renewed his tax break for large fortunes at the expense of cutting medical subsidies. The regulation, dubbed the Big Beautiful Bill, is expected to leave more than 11 million Americans without medical coverage by 2034.

The disastrous war in Iran

The big issue, both for the economic part and for the broken promise that the conflict has meant. The American president disappointed his base by involving the United States in a direct conflict in the Middle East for the first time since the invasion of Iraq. Although Trump has not gone so far as to deploy boots on the ground, the soldier casualties that the Pentagon is trying to cover up are costing him dearly. And it is not even necessary to mention the rising cost of fuel caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Gallup, for voters the military campaign in Iran is almost as important as the economic issue.

The Iran war has also deepened the schism within Trumpism, which had already opened with the publication of the Epstein papers. The conflict in the Middle East caused the first resignation for political reasons within the administration, with the counter-terrorism chief, Joe Kent, when he announced he was leaving the post. According to Kent, Israel had "deceived" the tycoon into getting involved in a war that is not a priority for the interests of "America First".

Immigration and the terror of ICE

Immigration has always been Trump and the Republican party's winning horse, but in these midterms it has become complicated for them. It is one thing to promise the largest mass deportation in history, and another to carry it out. The violence and brutality of anti-immigration agents, which led to the murder of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis, has turned what was solid ground into a quagmire. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in the midst of the ICE's fervor found that the president has also hit lows in his second term regarding immigration: 58% of Americans believe his aggression has gone too far.

In these elections, furthermore, ICE has also become a shadow to be feared. Pro-democracy and migrant rights groups have been training volunteers to act as observers at polling stations due to the fear that Trump might deploy anti-immigration agents at some polling stations.

AI data centers

The construction of data centers has broken into this year's legislative campaign. For the first time, they have been taken into account when conducting polls, and more and more Americans are showing their rejection of these types of facilities. The Gallup poll places them in the top 10 concerns among voters. Another survey published in May by the same group already highlighted how seven out of ten Americans oppose the construction of data centers in their local area and how just over 25% are in favor. The most important thing about this opposition, however, is its transversality: both Republicans and Democrats express strong rejection.