The Latino vote, conditioned by the ICE, will be key

WashingtonOne of the reasons why Donald Trump obtained the vote of many Latinos and Hispanics in the presidential election two years ago is that he knew how to build a difference between supposedly "good and bad" immigrants. Many of the Latinos who voted for him did so feeling that they were in the "good" group. Also hoping that he would lower the cost of living. But the Republican's support among the Latino community also rested on another leg: those who, disappointed with the Democrats, did not go to vote.

The Latino vote, which has historically tended to favor Democrats, reached a historic low in 2024. Although Vice President Kamala Harris secured 56% of the Latino vote, this is the lowest percentage in years. Conversely, Trump managed to obtain 42%, a figure that even surpassed the success of George W. Bush in 2004 among the collective.

In the 2020 elections, Joe Biden managed to defeat Trump precisely because of the mobilization of the Latino community. Since the beginning of this decade, the Hispanic community has become one of the groups with the most weight in tipping the electoral balance in the United States. In 2024, Latinos already represented 14.7% (36.2 million) of the total U.S. electorate, according to the Pew Research Center, which highlighted its rapid pace of growth. The center estimated that every year around 1.4 million U.S. Latinos gain the right to vote. The other factor that has turned Latinos into such a decisive group is their high presence in key states like California, Arizona, Texas, or Florida.

In these midterm elections, voters of Hispanic origin represent around 20% of the registered electorate in nearly two dozen very tight electoral races for the House of Representatives, in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas, as well as in other states, according to the latest projections from the New York Times.

Latino voters could also be decisive in several Senate elections, including that of Texas, where Republicans have achieved historic gains among the community in the last two elections. In Iowa and Kansas, the other two Republican strongholds that will be crucial in the race to determine control of the Senate, Hispanic voters could also play a decisive role.

If it had not been for the mobilization of Latino voters in Arizona six years ago, Biden would likely have lost the election. In 2024, they were important in catapulting Trump to the White House, and now, in these midterm elections, their vote will also be key. A vote that is conditioned by ICE raids, the immigration enforcement police force, the campaign of terror against the Latino community, and racial profiling arrests.

Poor perception of ICE and the economy

Among the Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, 93% approved of his management at the beginning of his term. A percentage that has fallen to 57% on the eve of the legislative elections, as shown by the Pew Research Center. The fear caused by ICE has contributed significantly: 30% of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 consider that the president has gone too far. The perception of the economy under the Republican's second term has also worsened among Latino voters. At the beginning of the year, 57% still considered that the economic management was going well, but the figure has fallen to 34%.

Two years under these conditions have left a mark on the group, either by changing voting intentions or by having a demobilizing effect. In other words, now the Republicans could be victims of the same story that Harris experienced in 2024. Among Latinos who did not vote two years ago, 47% now say they would vote for a Democratic candidate in the legislative elections, while only 18% would do so for a Republican, according to the latest Pew Research Center survey.

One of the aspects highlighted by the poll is that, in comparison with the 2022 legislative elections, Latinos who identify as Democrats are much more mobilized than those who identify as Republicans. 77% of Latinos registered as Democrats consider it very important who wins control of Congress in these midterm elections, compared to 58% in 2022.