The future of the British 'premier' and of the United Kingdom, in the hands of 76,600 nostalgic people

LondonThe streets of Ashton‑in‑Makerfield and Hindley, the two main towns in the Makerfield constituency in northwest England, still echo with a past that no longer exists. Their inhabitants would like to regain the security of a mine closed decades ago or the stability provided by the wages of a factory now reduced to ruins. Instead, what they have before them are logistics centres, service companies, healthcare and elderly care providers, and zero‑hour contracts that do not guarantee a single shift.

That vanished world was the pride of a working class that felt the country was moving forward with them, not against them. It is not surprising, then, that one of the most repeated phrases when asked about the state of the United Kingdom is that "the country is broken and not working," a diagnosis also used by the leaders of the Reform Party of the far‑right Nigel Farage.

Among the little more than 105,000 inhabitants of the district, the perception that London —synonymous with Westminster and the ruling class— has abandoned them is persistent. In this strip of working‑class towns between Wigan (7 km away) and Manchester (26 km away), the industrial past is not just memory: it is a way of life turned into nostalgia and, often, resentment. And from resentment, here, the far‑right feeds.

This is the background landscape against which the most important by-election held by the United Kingdom since the end of the Second World War is taking place this Thursday. Because the little more than 76,600 electors in the district can decide whether in the coming weeks or months – probably sooner rather than later – there will be a change at the head of the government. Depending on the result, Keir Starmer could become the sixth formerprime minister in just a decade, a record of instability for the United Kingdom. An instability that began with the Brexit referendum – it will be a decade next week – and which has roots going back to the 2008 economic crisis.

The two candidates

nearly a hundred deputies from his party to resignOn the contrary, if Burnham wins, he has promised to fight for the leadership of the party. Consequently, he would replace a Starmer increasingly weakened by the electoral disaster of early May in the local elections, the subsequent resignations, including those of the Health and Defence ministers, and the request of almost a hundred MPs for him to resign.

Polls point to a victory for Burnham. But the margins are narrow and nothing is decided. The most recent one, published last Sunday, places the difference between the candidates at only five points: 46% and 41%, respectively. The third party in contention is Restore Britain, a right-wing splinter of the Reform Party, which has 7% of voting intention.

, and moved the conservatives to second place. And Burnham has had to back down on its known positions in favour of the European UnionBurnham, on the other hand, has also repeated during the campaign that "the country and the party have gone down the wrong path for the last forty years", a vote of no confidence not only in the conservative policies of the period 2010 to 2024, but even in the era of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (1997-2010).

Under normal circumstances, during the campaign, the local issues that most concern the inhabitants of Makerfield would have been exclusively discussed: the cost of living, the deterioration of shopping streets, and the state of public services. But the challenge Burnham has announced against Starmer has made it inevitable that the background noise would be national issues: from immigration to relations with the European Union.

Makerfield is a stronghold of leave. 64.9% of the population voted to leave the European Union and Farage's party secured 31% of the votes in the 2024 elections, displacing the Conservatives from second place. And Burnham has had to backtrack on his well-known pro-European Union positions and warn that he does not intend to reopen the Brexit debate.

340 kilometers northwest of London, Makerfield has become a mirror and a mirage of the United Kingdom. The country is gambling its future on an area that would like to go back in time, but which is little more than "a cemetery on top of an exhausted mine," as the poem V, by Tony Harrison, says. The author, who died last year, would probably be scandalized to see how the same working-class communities he portrayed with so much humanity and fury could end up embracing the discourse of an extreme right that promises to resurrect a past that does not exist.