Some 'midterms' that will define Trump's last two years

WashingtonMillions of Americans are voting this Tuesday in midterm elections that have been lived as a referendum on Donald Trump, and which also constitute the ultimate test to see if American democracy can limit the absolutist aspirations of the president. The latest polls point to a blue wave, although Democrats remain cautious after promises in other elections failed to materialize.

The result of these midterms will mark the last two years of Trump in the White House, who at the midpoint of his second term has reached a historic peak of unpopularity. In the days leading up to the election, the US president's approval rating remained stalled at around 31%. Projections that have cornered the tycoon, given the prospect that he will most likely lose his majority in Congress, but, above all, given the evidence that the power he once held over the base is also cracking.

This Tuesday morning, in another electoral ploy as desperate as the promise of a 5,000 dollar check for Americans if his party wins, Trump announced that next year he will cut the approximately 4 billion dollars in annual economic aid to Israel. An attempt to show voters disappointed with the war in Iran – many believe the tycoon was dragged into it by Benjamin Netanyahu – that he has not yet completely abandoned "America first".

However, not even Trump, who is used to inhabiting a relative and very elastic reality, seems unable to evade the facts. During an interview this Tuesday on Fox, he insisted that he has "a 99% approval rating," but later added that "if people ever get tired of me in the United States, I will move to Israel and become prime minister." Probably, the idea does not seem so crazy to the Republican, after he granted political asylum in the US last week to the Brazilian far-right leader Flávio Bolsonaro, who lost the presidential election to Lula da Silva.

Great mobilization of early voting

The historic figure of early voting, with nearly 60 million ballots cast during the previous days, also inflates Democratic hopes. Typically, Democratic voters tend to vote by mail or in person early, while Republicans are more inclined to vote on the same day. This detail also leaves open the possibility that a strong mobilization of the conservative electorate during election day could spring a surprise, even though before the polls closed it did not seem that it would happen.

In several key states, the proportion of registered Democrats has increased in early voting. The uptick in previous voting methods is similar to other elections, such as those in 2018 and 2022, which broke total participation records in mid-term elections.

Where greater mobilization of early voting has been observed is precisely in the key states for control of the Senate, where early votes cast in 2022 are being surpassed, according to the collection made by the New York Times. For example, in Texas, where Democrat James Talarico could make history, early voting has increased by 41% compared to 2022. Likewise, in North Carolina, a race also critical for control of the upper house, the percentage of early voting has increased by 29% compared to the past midterm.

Unpredictability is not just a question linked to the electoral result, but also to Trump. What makes these mid-term elections exceptional is that they pose again the same question that remained unanswered in the 2024 presidential elections: how will Trump handle defeat? The Republican already made it clear in 2021 that, when he feels cornered, he responds by attacking aggressively. And this time he is back in the White House, but having accumulated much more power than during his first term.

Controversial competition in Alaska

The competition for the Senate in Alaska, one of those that may determine who controls the upper chamber, has become the main target of the president's attempts at electoral interference. After a judge dismissed the Trump administration's request to declare the election result void if its candidate, Dan S. Sullivan, does not win, the Justice Department sent letters to members of the Democratic Party during election day informing them that they may be the subject of federal investigations. The action, executed by a Justice Department now led by Todd Blanc, a former Trump lawyer, is the latest intimidation practice carried out by the White House.

The cause of the entire judicial serial is that a third candidate in contention has been added to the race in which Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan S. Sullivan are competing: Dan J. Sullivan. Reports from the New York Times indicate that J. Sullivan may have registered after the Democrats encouraged him to do so, a fact that he and Peltola's team deny. Republicans say it is a maneuver to confuse voters with the similarity of the name and divide the vote. All this augurs that, if Peltola ends up winning the seat in the arctic state, it will most likely lead to a long litigation that may end up miring a key seat to determine the Democratic majority in the Senate.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), upon which anti-immigration agents depend, has also made a publication fueling the idea that undocumented persons have voted illegally. "Our message to immigrants who vote in the US elections is clear: we will find you, we will arrest you and you will have to face the consequences, including criminal charges and deportation," says the post on X. The fear that ICE agents would be deployed at polling stations also loomed over these elections, especially in states like California, the Democratic giant, where the Latino community represents a significant percentage of the electorate.