Iran intercepts ships in the Strait of Hormuz after Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire

WashingtonThe ceasefire in the Iran war seems to be increasingly turning into a kind of safety belt in the midst of a free fall. The Iranian attacks come after the US had already boarded an Iranian-flagged vessel, the Touska

, over the weekend. The interception of the ship unnerved the markets, fearing a new resumption of hostilities on a regional scale. But the only immediate effect was an increase in suspicion among Iranians towards their interlocutor. According to Iranian sources revealed to the BBC, the confiscation of the Touska marked a turning point that led Iran to decide to abort the new round of peace talks scheduled in Islamabad before the initial ceasefire expired this Tuesday. The regime had already denounced at the time that it interpreted the boarding as an "act of war" and that it constituted a breach of the ceasefire. When Trump announced that he was extending the ceasefire without reopening Hormuz, Iran had already said that the extension "means nothing".

This Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that "the Islamic Republic has welcomed dialogue and agreement, and continues to do so." But he blamed Washington for the inability to resume talks. "The failure to fulfill commitments, the blockade, and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations. The world sees your endless hypocritical rhetoric and the contradiction between your claims and your actions," Pezeshkian wrote on X.

Contradictions and unpredictability

The contradictions and about-faces are a constant in Trump's management of the conflict. First, in a single day, he went from threatening to completely destroy Persian civilization to accepting a ceasefire presented by Pakistan. In recent days, he had dismissed the possibility of extending the truce, despite announcing just hours before it expired that he was extending it indefinitely.

The boarding of the two ships by the Revolutionary Guard confirms that, despite Pakistan's mediation efforts to bring negotiations to a successful conclusion, neither the U.S. nor Iran intend to relinquish the control they exercise over the energy artery through which, before the war, 20% of the oil consumed globally passed. Iranian media identify the two seized vessels as MSC Francesca, with a Panamanian flag, and Epaminondas, a Greek-owned vessel. Both allegedly attempted to pass through without adhering to the rules imposed by Iran for navigating the strait. Iranian media also speak of a third vessel, the Euphoria, also with a Panamanian flag.

Impact on the economy

While bombastic claims continue to imply no real changes on the ground, the disruption of energy transit in Hormuz is becoming increasingly real and serious. Oil is not the only resource that has been destabilized by the war: also the entire market for gas and fuels needed to fly planes. The German airline Lufthansa has announced the cancellation of 20,000 short-haul flights this summer, alleging that the increase in fuel costs has made many routes "unprofitable". 

Even if, by some twist of fate, the conflict between the US and Iran were to be quickly resolved, returning to normality would be a slow and agonizing process. Pentagon sources reveal to The Washington Post that they estimate at least six months of work will be needed to clear the strait of all the anti-ship mines that Iran has placed.

Pakistan maintains diplomatic efforts

Far from Hormuz, which has become the bottleneck of the conflict, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met this Wednesday with the Iranian ambassador to the country, Reza Amiri Moghadam, to try to unblock peace negotiations with the United States. From Iran, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that the country's armed forces are prepared to defend the nation, but has not closed the door to a potential new negotiation with the United States. "Iran [...] will take the necessary and appropriate measures to protect the country's national interests and security, and the armed forces are also fully alert and prepared to comprehensively and decisively defend the Iranian nation against any threat and evil," he said, according to the state agency of the Islamic Republic.

After initially outlining the expansion as an indefinite period, Trump is now considering shortening it to a period of between three and five days, according to sources who spoke to CNN. In a new interview with the New York Post –they are starting to be daily–, the president said that there could be "good news" within the next 72 hours. But the assertion is far from a credible announcement.

Unlike political statements, which change in a matter of hours, one of the few elements that remain stable is the US military deployment in the region. Before the ceasefire, the Pentagon had already mobilized extra troops in the region, and while the truce lasted, it also continued to send soldiers. When the amphibious assault group Boxe and the accompanying marines arrive in the region at the end of April, more than 10,000 additional military personnel will have been sent. The personnel will join the 50,000 soldiers that the Pentagon has said it has mobilized globally in operations to counter Iran.