Putin is convinced that Ukraine's defeat is approaching

MoscowA single ambiguous phrase from Vladimir Putin was enough for everyone to venture into predicting the proximity of a peace agreement in Ukraine. The Russian president implied that the war “is approaching its end”, opened the door to meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky in a third country, and proposed former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a possible European interlocutor with Russia. But, in reality, the Kremlin has not moved for a long time: its leader is convinced that Kyiv's defeat is a matter of months, he has no intention of meeting with the Ukrainian president unless it is to sign the end of the conflict, and any negotiation with the European Union will have to be done on his terms.If Donald Trump is difficult to decipher because he constantly contradicts himself, the exegeses of Putin's statements tend to overinterpret. During the surprise press conference that the Russian president convened on Victory Day evening, he took advantage of a criticism of Western support for Ukraine to say: “They began to stoke confrontation with Russia, which continues to this day. I believe the matter is approaching its end, but nevertheless, it is a serious matter.” 

If Donald Trump is difficult to decipher because he constantly contradicts himselfThis point of view corresponds with the information published by the

Financial Times

, which assures that Russian generals have promised their supreme commander the complete occupation of Donetsk before the end of the year. Putin also, in a phrase from the same press conference that many media outlets overlooked, stated that the objective of his troops is “the final defeat of the enemy”. And throughout this week, his spokesmen have repeatedly said that yes, the war could end at any moment… as soon as Zelensky withdraws his men from Donbas.

However, the advances of the Russian army continue to not align with the triumphant expectations of the military authorities. Independent observers acknowledge that Russia is advancing in eastern Ukraine, but at a slower pace than last year, and there is nothing to suggest that a dramatic collapse of Ukrainian lines is imminent in the coming months will occur. Kyiv's troops, moreover, are holding their positions firmly and have initiated offensive operations in recent weeks.

Nothing to negotiate with Zelensky

Journalists who regularly follow Putin also noted with surprise that, for the first time, he agreed to meet with Zelensky in a neutral country. However, the Russian president made it clear that the only possibility for them to meet and talk is for the Ukrainian leader to travel to Moscow, an unacceptable offer for Kyiv. Otherwise, Putin only wants to meet Zelensky during the signing of the peace agreement. Thus, even though the Kremlin has stopped accusing him of being an illegitimate representative of Ukraine, it equally rejects his demands to resolve the sticking points of the negotiations in a face-to-face conversation at the highest level.

In practical terms, Russia has also made no progress regarding dialogue with Europe. It is Brussels that is debating who and what should be discussed with Moscow, while Putin maintains that he has never left the table. As Moskovski Komsomolets columnist Moskovski Komsomolets Mikhail Rostovsky wrote, the chances of Schröder being the EU negotiator are "as remote as being sent to Jupiter." And the Russian president knows this. That's why he later added: "Choose a leader you trust and who has not said anything bad about us." The Kremlin will not take any steps to facilitate this dialogue, but if it does happen in the end, it will be to obtain guarantees that Europe will not attack them and a greater role in the continent's security architecture.

Putin is increasingly losing faith in the success of American mediation. Despite this, the pro-government press believes that he might be burning his last bridges for Trump to force Zelensky to sign a bad deal, before a possible defeat for the Republicans in the midterm elections. "Trump will not last forever," writes another Moskovski Komsomolets columnist, Dmitri Popov, who adds: "Sooner or later we will have to dialogue with Europe without foreign intermediaries or fight them directly."

In any case, there is no rush in Moscow to resume trilateral talks with Washington and Kyiv. The Kremlin has indicated that this format is "a waste of time." The key, once again, is the territorial issue, which has become existential. "As long as Zelensky does not take a serious step and withdraw from Donbas, no agreement will go anywhere, not even after ten rounds of negotiations," reiterates Ushakov.