Charles Franklin: "A Democratic Congress could cut the funding to certain plans of Trump"

BarcelonaOn Tuesday, the United States will renew Congress and a third of the senators at the polls. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate currently have a Republican majority, a fact that has allowed Donald Trump to govern without many obstacles. Now, however, all forecasts predict that the Democrats will obtain a majority in the House of Representatives, and it is also possible that they will achieve it in the Senate. What can change? Would the world notice the consequences of a change of majorities in the US legislative power? We talk about it with Charles Franklin, professor of law at Marquette University (Wisconsin) and director of this center's poll, one of the most reputable in the United States.

What does it depend on for the Democrats to win control of the Senate?

— The Democrats need to gain four seats on top of what they already have, and there are several very contested races in which they are leading the polls by one or two points on average. This includes some states like Ohio and Iowa, which usually lean towards the Republicans. It also includes Texas, a Republican stronghold, and Alaska, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2024. These states alone are enough for the Democrats to have a majority in the Senate.

To what extent can a change in majorities in the chambers condition Trump when it comes to governing?

— It would be a substantial change in terms of resistance to the president. Until now Trump has done what he wanted, but with a Democratic majority he would have much more resistance. However, the new majority could, for example, pass some laws, but Trump could veto them and Congress would not be able to override these vetoes because for that a two-thirds majority is needed, and no poll suggests that the Democrats will obtain it. I think we should expect a lot of verbal resistance, many committee hearings in which Congress questions the president's plans and calls his cabinet members and other officials to provide explanations. The only area in which a Congress with a Democratic majority would have a clearer influence over Trump is the budget. The president has requested a 1.5 trillion dollar increase for defense spending. It was not clear that a Republican Congress would grant it to him, and a Democratic Congress could directly cut funding for a number of the president's plans.

Therefore, would a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives be enough to, for example, send more military aid to Ukraine?

— I think it is likely that a new Congress will approve military aid. With the Democrats in control, the president will probably not be able to avoid some shipments and measures on this matter. It is clearly easier for shipments to be made to Ukraine with a Democratic Congress than with a Republican one mostly aligned with Trump.

And in the war against Iran?

— A Democratic Congress will try to control the military use of force in the Middle East, but I doubt it can do much. But the most important issue regarding this region is that Democrats have become very skeptical about supporting Israel. Historically they have supported Tel Aviv, but opinion has changed quite a bit and we will have to see how this takes shape.

Do you think war against Iran will return once the elections are over?

— We see speculation about it, but President Trump has threatened military action dozens of times since the war began, and then has either not been able to or not wanted to carry it out. Congress has historically been very, very slow to limit a president's authority in military action. With a Democratic chamber there would be much more criticism and perhaps effective action to reduce US forces there, but they have always been slow movements.

Trump has withdrawn the US from global climate agreements and organizations like the WHO. Can the legislative branch force a return?

— The Democrats would undoubtedly push for some environmental actions, but the effectiveness and priority would be rather questionable. The ones you mention are issues that require the president's cooperation and, therefore, it is possible that the legislature will urge Trump to obey international agreements, but they will not be able to force him. I foresee that the Democrats will focus more on matters that do not require this presidential cooperation, and usually these issues are domestic topics, rather than foreign policy issues.

Are you concerned about ICE activity on election day?

— Yes, I am really worried about this. I don't know what will happen. The president and his supporters have spoken bluntly about sending ICE agents to polling stations. If it happens, it would be another major step to interfere in the elections. It would mean a presence of federal agents in the elections that we have rarely seen in the recent history of the United States.

What could be Trump's reaction to an unfavorable result?

— According to what he says himself, it seems he may challenge the results in some states, and this could translate into legal actions that delay the final result of the elections. We do not know at this moment, so we will have to see. Even so, I believe that Trump simply does not believe he needs the support of Congress to do many things.

If one questions the results, how can this affect the credibility of the United States' democratic system?

— The North American political system has already struggled against claims of electoral fraud in recent years. This has made the United States a less predictable political system. It is very possible that the electoral results will be certified and approved, and the transition to a likely Democratic Congress will occur without major difficulties. But it is also entirely possible that the president and his supporters will impose legal actions in various states to try to prevent this outcome. A new scenario would be for the president and his Republican allies to try to prevent the election results from actually being applied. I doubt that we will reach that extreme, but the president's rhetoric certainly suggests that it could happen.

Two years after Trump's return to the White House, how is Trumpism doing?

— Trump has become more unpopular every month, and has steadily sunk during these two years. Support among his own ranks has also dropped, where he has lost a quarter of the support he had. None of this has stopped him from unilaterally implementing policies through executive orders, which he has done to an extraordinary extent compared to previous presidents. Therefore, I think the question is: would a Democratic Congress be able to prevent him from doing these things more effectively than the corporate courts, which have ruled against him on a number of issues, but have not always been able to stop him from doing what he wanted? It remains to be seen whether a change in majorities in the legislative branch will make him modify the way he governs during his remaining two years.

What could cause Trump's popularity to rise again?

— In his first term, his approval fell steadily in the first year, but then it rebounded in the second year. Conversely, this time there has been nothing but a constant decline. Undoubtedly, ending the war with Iran and achieving greater control over fuel prices would be an important step to boost his popularity. But many of the other policies he is promoting are also unpopular. It is not at all clear that in this second term he can find a way to recover his approval ratings.