Support for Israel among United States Democrats is cooling

WashingtonThe start of the Gaza war and Israel's escalation into genocide against Palestinians opened a rift between the Democratic bases in the United States. In the 2024 presidential elections, Kamala Harris found herself caught between the millionaire donations of pro-Israeli lobby groups and a growingly critical militancy regarding the massacre in the Strip. Her inability to take a strong stance on the conflict took its toll at the polls, with a significant bleed of protest votes. Now, the war in Iran, to which Donald Trump has allowed himself to be dragged by Benjamin Netanyahu, has intensified this distancing. The rupture is such that many Democratic candidates in this year's legislative elections are looking to distance themselves from AIPAC, one of the major pro-Israel lobbies.

In general, support for Israel has fallen among Americans, according to an NBC poll conducted in the early days of the military campaign in the Middle East. Currently, 39% of citizens view Israel negatively, whereas in 2023 – just after Hamas's October 7th attacks – it was only 24%. The loss of sympathy has been most pronounced among Democratic and independent voters: 57% and 48%, respectively, view Israel negatively.

Despite the infighting within the MAGA base and criticism from some sectors against the president, the perspective Republicans have has not been as affected. Only 18% view Israel negatively, six points more than in 2023. When the survey was conducted, the dramatic departure of the US counter-terrorism chief, Joe Kent, had not yet occurred. The official resigned arguing that Israel had "deceived" Trump into getting entangled in the conflict. An accusation that should be taken with a pinch of salt, considering that Kent and certain sectors of Trumpism have clear sympathies towards white supremacism and antisemitism.

Solidarity with Palestine is growing

The war, however, has not been a determining factor, but has simply given impetus to a widespread sentiment that has been brewing within American society. Thus, as the number of Palestinians killed by Israeli attacks has increased –more than 72,000–, solidarity with Palestine has been growing at the expense of sympathy for Tel Aviv.

A poll published by Gallup just before Trump and Netanyahu bombed Tehran on February 28 indicated that, for the first time since the early 2000s, Americans feel more sympathy for Palestinians than for Israelis: 41% compared to 36%. Until last year, the trend was the reverse.

The Jewish lobby, against the most progressive

Many Democratic candidates have grasped the message and are campaigning against AIPAC. For the first time, many are openly rejecting this pro-Israel lobby, despite its power. In 2024, the Zionist group (formerly known as the American Zionist Committee for Public Affairs) poured millions into primary campaigns to oust two legislators from Capitol Hill: Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman. Both were members of the Squad, the term used to refer to the most progressive bloc of Democratic congresspeople.

One of the most high-profile faces of the Squad is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The congresswoman for New York had been critical of the Gaza war, but it is only now that she has openly opposed cutting military funding to Israel. “Consistent with my voting record to date, I will not support Congress sending more taxpayer dollars or military aid to a government that consistently ignores international law and U.S. legislation,” the congresswoman said in a statement released Wednesday.

Previously, Ocasio-Cortez had made an exception on the issue of military aid, stating that Israel has the right to defend itself, a mantra almost omnipresent within American politics. Her stance also serves to differentiate her from other potential presidential candidates for the 2028 elections, should the congresswoman decide to run.

This phenomenon is also being replicated for this year's legislative elections. In Chicago, Democrat Daniel Biss aims to enter Capitol Hill this November with a campaign based on opposing AIPAC. Biss, who is Jewish and a grandson of Holocaust survivors who emigrated to Israel, has dedicated himself to warning that AIPAC and other similar political action committees are putting money into the campaign to unseat him.

Biss is not the only Democratic candidate from the Chicago area following this tactic. Many Democrats across the country have begun to openly state that they will not accept further donations from AIPAC. For example, California Governor Gavin Newsom said in a podcast interview that he has never accepted and "will never accept" donations from the group. Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker said the same a few days ago. Although both had previously received donations from AIPAC, they claimed that they would no longer receive them from now on.