The super-El Niño could cause almost half a million deaths due to heat

BarcelonaExtreme temperatures have long since ceased to be an exception and have become a recurring threat to health. Now the arrival of a super-El Niño could exacerbate this trend and cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over the next six months, according to an estimate by the Climate Impact Lab, a research group linked to the University of Chicago.

The Sahel, one of the most affected areas

The study, as reported by The Guardian, calculates that the impact will be especially severe in tropical countries, including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The Sahel region could accumulate some 66,800 additional deaths, while the United States would register some 3,500.

The projections have been developed based on data regarding the relationship between temperature and mortality in 24,378 regions around the world. The researchers have combined this data with temperature forecasts associated with El Niño to identify the areas where measures could be implemented to reduce the number of victims.

Life-saving measures

Among the proposed actions are the improvement of early warnings, the enabling of cooling centers, the reinforcement of health services during the most intense episodes, and the protection of workers who carry out their activities outdoors. The authors of the study also warn that the increase in mortality could extend until June or July 2027.

El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon, but this episode is developing on a planet already overheated by human activity. According to the report, temperatures on land could be 1.2 degrees higher than usual, with 44% more extremely hot days.