825,000 Catalan workers will retire in the next ten years

• The population between 60 and 64 years old is 8.5% higher than those between 16 and 20 years old
• Shop-owning merchants are the oldest profession
• The proportion of workers over 55 years old is lower in Catalonia than in the European Union as a whole

The aging of the citizenry represents a major challenge for the country's labor market. Currently, according to data collected by the Generalitat's Labor and Productive Model Observatory, one in five employed people in Catalonia –which is equivalent to 825,600 workers– are 55 years old or older and, therefore, are expected to leave the labor market in the next ten years. In fact, the same organization's estimates indicate that, although there are currently 1.6 million people over 65 years of age, representing nearly 20% of the country's population, by 2045, it is estimated that the figure will rise to 2.4 million, which will be equivalent to nearly 30% of the total citizenry.

These data show imminent tensions regarding the workforce. In fact, this effect will soon have an impact on Catalan workplaces: the population that is already exiting the labor market –those between 60 and 64 years old– is 8.5% higher than those who will enter in the next five years –from 16 to 20 years old–. Furthermore, as pointed out by the report Generational renewal and sustainability of work in Catalonia, a possible "early exit of the population from the labor market before reaching retirement age" would make the "problematic need for labor" deepen even further.

Another relevant factor to take into account is the qualification of the jobs that will become vacant due to retirement. As detailed by the Labor Observatory, 35% of workers over 55 years old hold high-qualification jobs, of which more than half correspond to scientific and intellectual technicians and professionals (154,600 people), while 39% have low-qualification jobs, such as workers in the restaurant sector, personal service workers, and sales workers, with about 163,000 people aged 55 or over. People who are exiting the labor market in medium-qualification jobs represent a quarter of the total. Furthermore, of the 825,600 workers over 55, 725,000 (87.8%) have full-time jobs.

The most aging occupations

However, will this aging impact the entire labor market equally? The report details which economic activities and occupations have a higher percentage of workers over 55 years old. And, although in absolute terms the bulk of the impacts will be concentrated in sectors such as manufacturing and commerce, the weight of people who will retire in the coming years in activities such as agriculture, public administration, or real estate activities, among others, far exceeds the other age groups.

Regarding occupations, "replacement needs are more pronounced among skilled workers in the agricultural, livestock, and fishing sectors; shop owners; library, postal service, and similar employees; and administrative support professionals," it is noted. At the other extreme, information and communications, arts and entertainment activities, and financial and insurance activities are the least aged subsectors.

Below the European average

The situation in Catalonia, however, is below the European average: the aging of workers affects most member states of the European Union. Specifically, the weight of the employed population aged 55 and over in the Twenty-seven is 23.4%, slightly above what they represent in Catalonia (21%). If we look at the eurozone as a whole, the percentage rises to 24.1%. Latvia (28%), Germany (27.5%) and Italy (27.5%) are the countries with the most workers over 55 years old, while in Malta (13.3%), Luxembourg (14.3%) and Poland (17.9%) they have the least weight. Catalonia is also situated below countries such as Portugal (25%), Greece (23.7%) or Spain (21.9%).

However, if an x-ray is made of the most aged sectors in the Principality compared to the rest of Europe, several similarities and differences are found. On one hand, it stands out that in the European set as a whole there is a very similar presence of workers over 55 years old in agriculture, real estate activities and other services. Furthermore, in both cases, the least aged activity section corresponds to information and communications.

A strong difference, however, is found in public administration employees: the weight of working people aged 55 or over is 7.6 percentage points higher in Catalonia than in the EU-27 (33% compared to 25.4%). "Conversely, the aging is significantly lower in Catalonia in arts and entertainment activities (-9.6 points), financial and insurance activities (-7.8 points) and health and social services (-6.7 points)," details the report.