US Vice President J.D. Vance said this week that after the midterm elections in November he will announce whether or not he will run in the next presidential elections. This would be very bad for Israel, especially after the unprecedented public comments he made on Thursday against the entire government of Benjamin Netanyahu, calling it "unacceptable" that Israel, in its bombings of Beirut, kills "people who have nothing to do with Hezbollah".

As the hours pass and more details emerge about the memorandum agreed between Iran and the United States, it seems clearer that it represents a victory for Persian diplomacy over American diplomacy. The agreement, which will be signed on Friday, has been received with joy by the markets as it foresees the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic, but the fine print leaves Donald Trump in a very bad light. One only needs to look at the reaction of the Israeli media, which consider it practically a surrender to the ayatollah regime.

Israel finds itself in a very complicated moment, perhaps the most difficult in the history of the country, founded in 1948. At the helm we have Benjamin Netanyahu, a controversial prime minister not only because of the situation derived from the war with Iran and its uncertain consequences, but also because of the deep religious, social and political division that shakes Israel.

The f-word (“the efa word”) is the euphemism with which in English they refer to the word fuck, which undoubtedly is the most popular curse word —or swear word, or blasphemy— in this language and the touchstone of all its vulgar registers. It can be translated as merda, collons, puta (the variant puto, very widespread lately, is a Hispanism) and still a series of other possibilities, depending on the context of the sentence.Trump likes to use the f-word and its derivativeswhen he wants to act tough and politically incorrect. This Sunday he used it against Netanyahu, because the Israeli prime minister was once again on the verge of derailing, with a new bombing of Beirut, the agreement between the US and Iran to stop the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump lamented this in a telephone interview with the digital Axios: “Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no fucking judgement” (“Why did Bibi have to carry out a shit attack? I got very angry. I let him know. He has no sense, damn it”). Trump calls Bibi Benjamin Netanyahu because deep down there is an affection. The degradation of language, the normalization of crude language within politics, is, do not doubt it, another tactic and tool of the far-right: they pass off as a sign of supposed “authenticity” what is nothing more than an impoverishment and coarsening of public debate. This suits populists, never democrats.The fact is that Trump's agreement with the ayatollah regime —still pending signature, on Friday in Switzerland— hangs by a thread of Israel's intentions and maneuvers against Lebanon, which the chief of staff of the Israeli army, Eyal Zamir, confirms as the country's “main strategic priority”, as you can read in the information by Ethel Bonet and Núria Vila Masclans in this newspaper. Trump had announced this agreement as imminent on numerous occasions and, in the end, has achieved a preliminary agreement in which he must present as a great triumph having managed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which would not have been closed if he and Netanyahu had not started an illegal war (one more) against Iran. They have managed to return to the point where things were before February 28, when they launched the first attack against Tehran. Of course: with a toll of thousands of deaths and with a global energy, economic, and financial crisis about to be unleashed as a consequence of the brilliant maneuver of these geopolitics speculators.Trump, however, has to present it as a success, and for that he celebrated it with a tweet on his network, Truth Social, which said: "Let the oil flow!"(“Let the oil flow!”). Trump's presidency, in effect, is becoming a succession of invasions, wars, and coups d'état with the purpose of stealing the oil reserves of other countries. Or perhaps he was referring to the oil with which the wrestlers who performed at the White House to celebrate its eightieth anniversary are greased. Be that as it may, a very oily president.

The decision to start a war with Iran, led by Israel on February 28, is proving to be a real trap for Donald Trump, who more than 100 days later has still not found a way out. Far from the speed and military success of the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the ayatollahs' regime has proven to be a much more formidable adversary, capable of regenerating itself from the blows it has received.

“You are crazy”, “if it weren’t for me, you would be in prison”, “everyone hates you”. These were some of the words that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, addressed to the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, last week. He told them directly in a phone call, and then he himself confirmed it to the media.

It has gone around the world, like everything related to the toxic twins of international politics, the row that a few days ago Trump gave Netanyahu over the phone: "You are a son of a bitch," he told him. "You would be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass." A possible subject of study is the identification between leaderships that claim to be strong and the brothel language that floods Western politics and media.In any case, for once, Trump fell short. When it came to Netanyahu, he could have continued to hurl insults and curses, and whatever he said would have been justified: on the condition, of course, of also reversing the insults against himself. Trump blamed Netanyahu and the attacks by the Israeli army against Lebanon for Trump's repeated failures in negotiations with Iran, and with good reason. But he could also blame himself and his administration, which insist on pursuing the productive strategy of combining negotiations with bombings over Tehran. Trump has been announcing an agreement for weeks that, in his words, is always imminent and desired by the ayatollahs' regime with a desperation that, for now, is only evident in Trump himself (the latest announcement, quite doubtful, is for this coming weekend; Netanyahu, meanwhile, says he has agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon, but his ceasefires are so elastic that they include massacres of civilians, as in Gaza). Let's remember that Trump announced the supposed victory of the US and Israel over Iran eleven days after the first unannounced attack: "Our army has practically destroyed Iran. Its air forces are finished." Almost three months later, Iranian aviation, drones, and missiles continue to torture American armed forces that are short of resources. The warlike fury of the Trump administration generates profits in the form of spoils obtained in piratical actions against international law (for example, Venezuelan oil, which the US is now plundering with the collaboration of Delcy Rodríguez and the same elites who already parasitized the country with Maduro; there has been no regime change, nor anything similar), but it also depletes budgets and armaments.

Tensions in the Persian Gulf have flared up again this Wednesday, following a bombing of Kuwait International Airport, with one person dead and at least 63 injured, according to health sources, seven of whom required surgical interventions. The United States has attributed authorship to Iran, accusing it of a "deliberate, calculated, and unjustified attack." But Tehran insists that the detonation was a consequence of the impact of an American missile interceptor on the airport. This is the deadliest attack exchanged between the US and Iran in recent days, and moreover, it occurred at a civilian infrastructure, further jeopardizing Donald Trump's attempt to reach a new ceasefire agreement with Tehran to save face.

We often say that politics seems like a schoolyard, and we say it to indicate childish attitudes on the part of leaders, who precisely if they have to seem like anything to us, it should be "parents", not "children". We've said it lightly and we've said it more times than we should. But here it is, today I open the ARA and I come across the words that leader Trump dedicates to leader Netanyahu. And I tell myself yes, that the phrase to define him had never made so much sense. He told him this (we translate as best we can): "You are a fucking crazy person. If it weren't for me, you'd be in jail. I'm saving your ass. Everyone hates you. Everyone hates Israel for what you're doing".

Despite de-escalation promises from Washington, in southern Lebanon nothing seems to have changed this Tuesday. The inhabitants of Nabatiyeh have barely had time to process the ceasefire announcements when sirens, evacuation orders, and Israeli bombings have once again imposed themselves over any expectation of calm.

The Beaufort Castle, a fortress from the time of the 12th-century crusades, has become the new symbol of the Israeli offensive in southern Lebanon. This Sunday, the Israeli army conquered this castle, which theoretically allows it to control a wide strip of territory largely controlled by Hezbollah, which, despite strong pressure, still launched attacks against Israeli positions again on Saturday. It is still too early to tell, but the gesture of planting the flag there has been seen as a turning point in this conflict, as it has been accompanied by a strong propaganda campaign –photographs of the Israeli flag on the hill and the announcement by Benjamin Netanyahu calling it a "crucial milestone" and urging the continuation of the military incursion– to show how the invasion of Lebanon was progressing beyond the Litani River to establish, in principle, a new "security" border 10 kilometers further north, reaching the Zahrani River.

The fragile ceasefire that since April had partially contained the violence in Lebanon is once again faltering following a strong Israeli escalation that began Monday night, the most intense since the first weeks of the offensive. The new troop movements respond to the call of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to "press the accelerator even harder" against Hezbollah. While Donald Trump tries to keep indirect negotiations with Iran open, and Washington insists on the possibility of a regional agreement – despite the United States' bombings of Iranian positions this Tuesday in the early morning –, on the ground the weapons do not fall silent. Israel has expanded operations, mobilized reservists and multiplied attacks from the south to the Bekaa Valley, in the east of the country, a key area for Lebanese agriculture. In parallel, the Shiite militia Hezbollah has responded in recent hours with 22 drone and rocket attacks on Israeli positions. Their targets have included Israeli soldiers, tanks, barracks and buildings. Direct combat has also been recorded north of the Litani River. The Shiite organization continues to carry out a dynamic that, according to analyst Lina Khatib, associated with Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa program, also responds to directives from Iran, interested in keeping Lebanon within the broader negotiation framework with the United States.

It seems that the current war will end up strengthening Iran. Perhaps it will end up returning, more or less and under a different name, to Obama's 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which limited Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting the imposed sanctions. A situation that would weaken the almost unconditional support of the US for Israel and that would question the Greater Israel project shamelessly defended by the Netanyahu government.

In an Israel marked by months of war with no end in sight, the country will hold elections this fall, the first in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face the polls since the Palestinian attacks of October 7, 2023. The prospect that, despite his weariness, he may win again has led the opposition to unite against him. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, two of the prime minister's main rivals, have announced a coalition to unseat him after 25 years of almost uninterrupted dominance of Israeli politics. The alliance responds to a clear political logic: the two former prime ministers are trying to rebuild a broad central space capable of attracting voters from both the moderate right and the center. Bennett, a former army commander and a reference for the ultranationalist right, has gained weight as a credible figure on security matters – a key factor in full regional confrontation –, while Lapid, leader of liberal centrism and a former television presenter, maintains strength in the urban and secular vote. However, the union has generated doubts regarding its political viability and the power to be a real alternative to Netanyahu.The most recent poll by the Israeli media Walla places the new candidacy, baptized as Junts (Beyahad in Hebrew), around 27 seats, one less than Netanyahu's Likud, which would remain the leading force with about 28 seats. Even more decisive is the bloc's configuration. Parties opposed to Netanyahu are around 59 seats, below the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. Even in favorable scenarios, the opposition bloc needs the support of other parties. The parties representing Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, who make up 20% of Israel's population, would maintain about a dozen seats, but Lapid and Bennett have ruled out forming a coalition with them.

In an infrequent reaction, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has apologized and issued a condemnation "with all his might." A few hours earlier, his Foreign Minister had done so, admitting that the act had been "serious and shameful." And both have assured that "harsh" and "strict" disciplinary measures will be taken against the perpetrator. What big thing happened? Well, the photo of an Israeli soldier in southern Lebanon hitting the head of a crucified Jesus Christ with a hammer, lying upside down after being taken down from the cross, an image that has caused the usual tearing of clothes on social media.

The controversy has been so strong that Benjamin Netanyahu has been forced to apologize publicly. It all began over the weekend, when a photograph showing an Israeli soldier in southern Lebanon hitting the head of a crucifix with a hammer, lying upside down after being taken down from the cross, caused a major controversy on social media. In an unusual move, this Monday the Prime Minister of Israel condemned the acts "with all his might" and announced an investigation into the incident, as well as "harsh disciplinary action" against the soldier.

A few days ago, it was done by letter, also signed by Ireland and Slovenia, and next Tuesday the Spanish government will formally request that the European Union break its association agreement with Israel. This was announced by the president of the executive, Pedro Sánchez, from Andalusia, where he participated in an electoral event with the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero. According to Sánchez, Benjamin Netanyahu's government cannot continue to be a preferred partner of the EU because it "is violating international law" and, therefore, "the principles and values of the EU". It will be at the meeting of Foreign Affairs ministers where the Spanish government's request will be formalized.

The corruption trial against Benjamin Netanyahu has been postponed again after the Jerusalem District Court canceled the sessions scheduled for this week, following a new request from the prime minister's defense. The argument: "Classified security and diplomatic reasons" linked to the regional situation. According to the document filed with the court, Netanyahu will not be able to testify "for at least the next two weeks." The decision maintains the process, which had already been frozen for more than a month due to the military escalation with Iran, formally active but repeatedly interrupted.The case, which represents the first time an Israeli head of government is prosecuted while in office, is in the full phase of testimonies of the well-known cases 1000, 2000, and 4000. Case 1000 investigates the alleged receipt of 260,000 euros in gifts from businessmen such as Arnon Milchan and James Packer. Case 2000 analyzes an alleged negotiation with the editor of the newspaper Yediot Aharonot, Arnon Mozes, to obtain favorable coverage in exchange for limiting the influence of the rival newspaper, Israel Hayom. Case 4000, the most serious, focuses on alleged regulatory favors to businessman Shaul Elovitch in exchange for positive coverage on the Walla! portal, and includes the accusation of bribery.What was to be resumed these days was not unimportant sessions, but the prosecution's cross-examination, a key moment in which the narrative built by Netanyahu is tested since the beginning of the case in 2020. Netanyahu has denied all accusations and has called the case a "witch hunt" and a conspiracy by the "deep state". He even asked for a pardon in November to the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, arguing that the judicial proceedings hinder his ability to govern and would benefit the unity of the country. The pardon remains pending resolution.In this context, the war with Iran has been interpreted by various analysts as a possible smokescreen for the trial. “I am sure that this is one of the main reasons for the timing of the offensive against Iran, not only because of the trial, but also because he is still partly held responsible for the events of October 7, 2023”, the Israeli historian and political scientist, Ilan Pappé, tells ARA.Along the same lines, the Arab Center Washington points out that the prolongation of the conflict serves Netanyahu for a double objective: to maintain internal political control in an uncertain electoral context and, at the same time, to divert public attention and delay his judicial processes. In fact, shortly after the start of the offensive against Iran on February 28, Netanyahu himself called his trial an "absurd circus" and asked for it to be suspended to focus on the war.According to a source in the prime minister's coalition cited by the newspaper The Times of Israel, the leader was confident that a “victory narrative over Iran” would boost his re-election chances and shift attention from October 7th. He considered that a regime change in the Persian country and a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia would be enough to reinforce this scenario.Hit popularity and political tensions

Netanyahu's popularity was severely affected after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. Several sectors of Israeli society accuse him of avoiding responsibility for a serious security lapse, while he rejects any blame and insists on military successes against the armed group. Furthermore, public trust has also been eroded by his insistence on pushing for a government-controlled investigation instead of an independent commission.Meanwhile, the government faces growing internal tensions over the reform of the military recruitment law, especially regarding the exemptions demanded by ultra-Orthodox parties. Military service in Israel is mandatory, but Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies are pressuring to maintain these privileges. A law of this kind, currently stalled due to the regional situation, would be highly unpopular among the majority of the population.The ceasefire in Iran weakens Netanyahu

In the early stages of the conflict with Iran, the war strengthened the prime minister's leadership image. In a context of high tension, more than 80% of the Jewish population supported the offensive, and a large part of the political spectrum rallied behind the government. Some analysts pointed out that a quick end would have consolidated Netanyahu as the great political winner, and several polls indicated a slight improvement in voting intention.With Wednesday's ceasefire, considered by political and social sectors an unsatisfactory result, and the feeling that objectives such as the neutralization of Iran's nuclear and ballistic program or a regime change are far from being achieved, the success narrative has weakened.The latest polls reflect this trend. Likud, the prime minister's party, would go from 28 to 25 seats according to the poll by Israel's public broadcasting corporation, Kan, while Netanyahu's coalition would be around 51 seats, far from the 61 needed for a majority. In parallel, opposition parties would approach 59 seats. A significant part of this drop is explained by the rejection of the ceasefire with Iran, with 56% of respondents disagreeing.In this context, the elections scheduled before October 27 are shaping up as a referendum on three simultaneous fronts: the corruption trial, the management of the war, and the credibility of Netanyahu's leadership.

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"Being anti-Zionist in Israeli society is basically like a betrayal. It puts you at odds with friends and family. It's going against your own identity. They see you as crazy." Nadav Finebooch, of Israeli nationality but residing in Madrid since 2023, thus summarizes for ARA the contradiction and ostracism generated by being a dissident in Israel and raising a voice against the "genocide" perpetrated by Benjamin Netanyahu's government. Finebooch, far from a community in which he felt "as if I were living inside George Orwell's book1984, has joined a group of Israelis established in Spain who are calling on the international community to sanction Israel. Although they celebrate that Pedro Sánchez's government has so far championed the opposition to Netanyahu with the Gaza war, they ask him to act even more "forcefully".

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The real problem with what has happened in recent times in the Near East and Middle East is the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his permanent ultranationalist and militaristic forward flight to stay in power and thus evade the judicial cases that plague him. After the genocide perpetrated in Gaza in response to Hamas's terrorist attack, Israel has pushed the United States of Trump into a war against the ayatollahs' Iran and has taken advantage of the military escalation to unashamedly execute its expansionist ambitions in the region. The objective: to gain security space by destroying its historical enemies.

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