Who would immigrants vote for?

BarcelonaThe Spanish government, in a measure agreed with Podemos, has approved an extraordinary regularization of immigrantsCurrent estimates calculate that the measure will regularize the status of half a million people. If there are no last-minute changes, this will represent the seventh extraordinary regularization process. Three of these were initiated by Felipe González's PSOE, two by José María Aznar's PP, and the last by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the most extensive to date. In total, nearly 1.2 million people have benefited from these extraordinary measures, a figure that could grow substantially with the first regularization in twenty years.

The idea that these half a million people could vote began circulating after the announcement of the Royal Decree, especially on social media. This is false, given that work and residence permits are granted, but not Spanish nationality, which is what confers the right to vote in general, regional, and municipal elections (the latter with some exceptions, such as being from a European Union member state). However, the potential electoral support of migrants was soon used as a political tool. For example, Irene Montero (Podemos) said a few days ago in Zaragoza that regularization would allow them to "sweep away the fascists" and "replace them with hardworking people."

What would be the political behavior of immigrants? Answering this is a complicated question given that polls usually exclude them. Concluding that certain migrants will vote one way or another often follows certain stereotypes based on their geographic origin or the language they speak, among other things.

Political apathy and abstention

As numerous studies document, the most common "blog" among foreign-born citizens who obtain Spanish nationality is abstention. Formal citizenship is not accompanied by voter turnout rates similar to those of native-born citizens. For example, according to survey data from 2014 to the present, the abstention rate among newly naturalized citizens was double that of native-born Spaniards. Even when they have the right to vote, as in local elections, their participation is much lower. This pattern can be explained by at least two factors: first, the lower socioeconomic status of immigrants is strongly associated with abstention.

Second, a significant portion of new voters are disconnected from the country's political world, its dynamics, and how it functions. As time goes on, these barriers are falling, and therefore, their participation is increasing.

Left-wing... with exceptions

Among those expected to participate in the elections, the parties with the highest voter support are the PSOE (general elections) and the PSC (Catalan elections). The PSOE has a greater relative presence among those who have recently acquired Spanish nationality or among those who do not. Looking at the ideology of these two groups, a significant number struggle to identify with any particular party, but those who do tend to place themselves in the center-left.

In the Catalan context, the pattern is similar, with some differences. This is a group that tends to prefer national parties as opposed to Junts, ERC, the CUP, and Aliança. The data also indicate significant differences based on origin. While North Africans predominantly vote for left-wing parties (particularly those from Morocco), there is almost a tie between left and right among Ecuadorians and Colombians. Conversely, support for the right is noticeably higher among Latin Americans, especially Venezuelans (particularly for Vox). In Catalonia, the high level of support for Aliança from people of European origin, especially those from Eastern Europe, is noteworthy.

Finally, we could stake our reputation on one aspect and it would be difficult to be wrong: considering that they don't all live in the same province, that they participate less, and that their support is heterogeneous, the impact in terms of seats would tend to be negligible.

The curious chart of the week

Which party is responsible for the success of the far right?

The reasons for the rise of the far right across Europe have long been a subject of analysis. Much of the debate has focused on the role of the economy (for example, the effect of recessions), cultural aspects (such as the role of religion), and the media, such as social networks. Recently, an academic article asked: does the electoral success of the far right depend in part on which party is in power? The ideology of governments has varied little, despite shifting to the left in the 1940s and 1990s, to the right between the 1950s and 1970s, and even further to the right since 2000 (especially in recent years). As the article shows, when the left is in power, the far right, usually in opposition, siphons off more votes. The article, for example, shows that in Spain, when the left is in power, Vox benefits the most, not the PP.