What will the abstentionist independentist do?

BarcelonaIn the upcoming general elections of November 29th, what will the abstentionist independentist who has decided to stay home in recent elections do? During the most intense phase of the 'Procés', approximately between 2012 and the beginning of the covid crisis, a new pattern began to be detected in Catalan electoral behavior, which manifested itself in various ways: the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia were perceived as very important, even the most important. During this period, electoral mobilization rose notably, which meant that in many elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, turnout was higher than in the elections to the Congress of Deputies. In fact, a new type of voter appeared that overturned the traditional view of the differential abstentionist. Thus, unlike what had been detected in a good part of the electoral history of our country, in recent years we have seen people who participated in the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia but abstained in the Spanish elections.

At the end of the 'Procés' and as the new political reality of negotiation with the State made its way, the criticism from a part of the independence movement towards the main actors of the 'Procés' surfaced with more force. During these years, a part of the sovereignist movement campaigned for abstention, especially in the elections of July 23, 2023, to the Congress of Deputies, but also in those of the Parliament of Catalonia the following year. According to the promoters of these campaigns, abstention was a way to punish the strategy and the policy of pacts that had been followed until then.

Partly as a result of these campaigns, in recent years there has not been any election in Catalonia in which the percentage of voters has been higher than 56% (except for the 2023 general election). Taking a long-term view, these are historically low figures. If we take a look at the 2023 Congress elections, we see that abstention rose especially in those municipalities where the independence movement was strongest four years earlier (in 2019). Subsequent statistical calculations estimated that in 2023 more than half a million pro-independence voters abstained, even though some groups had already abstained in the 2019 elections.

Differential pro-independence abstentionism or electoral expression of dissatisfaction?

Polls indicate that the pro-independence abstentionist of recent years is dissatisfied with both the parties and the functioning of the institutions. They are an elector more of the center and center-right, with a greater presence among young people and the elderly. In relative terms, they have a more significant presence in Central Catalonia, but more than half are concentrated in Barcelonès, the Vallès regions, Baix Llobregat, and Maresme. Lately, anger towards democracy has decreased, but disillusionment with sovereignist parties remains. Since the end of the 'Procés,' and with more intensity than in the case of non-independence voters, they allege two main reasons for abstaining: the idea that no option satisfies them (they do not feel represented) and that they do it as a protest against politicians and the system.

Another pattern that is detected is that a good part of contemporary abstentionist independence supporters are not people who have disconnected from politics, but rather preserve a good dose of politicization. They are still inclined to protest over political issues and to inform themselves about politics. The majority does not seem to have reached the stage of disaffection, that is to say, of disconnection from political affairs. They have, therefore, a good starting point to return to the polls.

With a few weeks to go before the elections, around 45% of pro-independence abstentionists say that they will most likely go to vote on November 29th. The other half, however, does not categorically deny it, and in the latest polls a certain activation is detected. The doubts, however, still seem significant. It is difficult for them to leave their disillusionment behind, at least in the short term, but whether they decide to express it by participating and not staying at home remains one of the big questions of the elections. The second question, connected to the first, is who would benefit from this change, if it benefits anyone at all. We will soon start to know the answer.

In the Spanish state, when a party is in power, it keeps its deputies in line

Political division is not liked, and much less so when a party has government responsibilities. "He who moves does not get into the photo," said Alfonso Guerra. However, this iron control from above is not common in all political systems. In the Anglo-Saxon rooted system, in which each deputy is directly chosen by the citizenry, it is much more common to hear how party colleagues in government who are not in the executive branch criticize the work done by their own. In fact, according to a recent study, criticizing your own from Parliament is a common pattern also in countries like Germany, Japan, and Italy. Conversely, the Spanish state is the place where deputies of the governing party criticize their executive colleagues the least. The iron control of electoral lists by the parties is one of the main reasons for this.