Sánchez and the time to roll the dice

MadridThere are indeed temptations. For what? To call elections, naturally. From whom? From the only one who has something to say about this issue, which is the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez. This weekend he will talk about it with his inner circle. There is anticipation for what he might explain on Monday to the PSOE executive, which meets at the central headquarters on Ferraz street. It will not be just another meeting. In fact, in the party, they say there could be news even before Monday. The climate left by the failure of the vote on the two decrees on measures to address the housing and eviction problem is one that sparks fires. In the government, there are diverse opinions. In the party, the idea is gaining ground that now might be a good time to jump into the pool, that it is time to cast the dice.

It is evident that the PSOE is favoring the encampment at Puerta del Sol, a protest that, on the other hand, is a torture for the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who no longer knows how to justify her requests – that the police expel those gathered in the square, where the seat of the regional government is located –. She has denounced that those gathered have large knives and paving stones. They have explained that the knives are for cutting bread and the paving stones are to ensure the stability of the tents. Meanwhile, the Spanish government delegation in Madrid says it neither can nor wants to kick out those who have followed the call of the Tenants' Union. The encampment is more than a symbol, it is an electoral asset.

Audiovisual media are having a field day with the images of these days. First, it was the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal, a photograph that moved mountains. But what came after was politically stronger, because it was an unstoppable mobilization due to the explosion of the housing problem and the frustration it causes in an incalculable number of people of all ages, especially young people, tired of not finding a home and having to share an apartment, often with strangers and for a substantial part of their salary, in exchange, with luck, for having exclusive use of one of the shelves in the collective fridge.

It had to blow up someday, and Maricarmen is already part of the history of 21st-century Spain, even if only in the fine print of a photo caption. Among the leaders of the PSOE, the most optimistic think that there will not be a better opportunity. They believe that the PP, Vox, and Junts would suffer in an electoral campaign aimed at fully exploiting this Friday's vote and presenting them as an insensitive right-wing, defending the privileges of wealthy minorities and vulture funds. A message that simplifies things a lot, because around the housing problem, various perfectly legitimate interests coexist. What we have to regret is that the legislature has passed without the parties with parliamentary representation being able to sit down and negotiate seriously.

This factor will also have to count in the next elections, whenever they may be. There was little to celebrate with the supposed end of bipartisanship. The alternative has been a divided Parliament, where everyone has acted based on electoral perspectives. Political fragmentation has proven to be harmful, as much as polarization. Pluralism cannot lead to inoperability, nor to circumstantial pacts. Not only did Friday's debate in Congress highlight the current weakness of the government. It also became clear two days earlier, in the control session on Wednesday. With a big difference, since in the question time for Sánchez's executive, there was not as much at stake. I left Congress thinking that the Prime Minister would hold out until March, or until July. Now, with the confirmation of the parliamentary precariousness of the socialists –once again with protesters around Congress–, everything has been reopened, and all options are on the table.

Sánchez will turn over all kinds of calculations. It is not a minor issue that his wife has to be tried during the coming months by a popular jury. There is no shortage of those who say, from within the judicial career itself, that it is all done, and that after the conviction of the Prime Minister's brother, now Begoña Gómez's will fall, because the case has been prepared with that objective. The actions of the judiciary have marked this legislature in various ways. But there is a big difference between corruption cases and those related to Sánchez's family, highly conditioned by the circumstance of kinship.

The most complicated moment

For the PSOE, the most complicated moment arrived with the formal accusations against former minister José Luis Ábalos and against his successor at the head of the party's organization secretariat, Santos Cerdán, both close collaborators of the socialist leader. Back then, it made no sense to call elections. Sánchez held on because it was a moment of extreme weakness, of an obvious loss of confidence. Going to the polls in that context was suicidal for the PSOE. Now it is different. Now –say the most optimistic– one can try to repeat the 2023 strategy, with a campaign focused on warning about the risks that a government arising from a pact between the PP and Vox would pose to any objective in terms of social policies.

To do this work, the PSOE will no longer be able to count on Zapatero, who has ceased to be a symbol for the socialists, some of whom remain perplexed by the jewelry matter, now that the former president of the government has already informed the National Court that they were a gift from the King of Saudi Arabia. The PP will attack hard from this side during the campaign –whether it is now or next year–, as it has done in Parliament. And what remains for us to know about Leire Pajín, the fixer of the PSOE, and her actions to stop the investigations affecting her party. What the PSOE no longer counts on is the possibility that the application of the amnesty law to Puigdemont and the other pro-independence leaders accused of embezzlement will translate into a recovery of the collaboration with Junts. A key objective of the legislature is about to be achieved, next Tuesday, with the ruling of the Constitutional Court. But this fact may have no effect on the immediate political calendar, which is now in Sánchez's hands.