Pending Pedro Sánchez

Barcelona / MadridThe last time he took a few days to reflect, Pedro Sánchez returned with "more strength", ready to "put a brake on the politics of shame". During those five days in April 2024 –in the middle of the electoral campaign in Catalonia–, everyone was pending his decision, which at the time had to do with the attacks his wife received, today about to be tried for embezzlement and influence peddling. Now things are slightly different: no one expects him to step aside, but everyone is waiting for him to make a decision. Will there be elections before the end of the year?

The weekend has passed, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets to call for a general strike, and for now, Sánchez is maintaining his agenda for this Monday. At 9:30 a.m. he will inaugurate the National Congress of Family Businesses in Madrid and then he has the meeting of the PSOE's federal executive. It will likely be there that they finish discussing which scenario is most interesting for the socialists. If he opts for the electoral path, the Constitution states that he would first have to convene the council of ministers to explain it and, afterwards, communicate it to the king, who is responsible for decreeing the dissolution of the Cortes, and who begins an official trip to Finland this Monday.

"History will judge them sooner and more forcefully than they imagine," said Sánchez to the deputies of the PP, Vox, and Junts at the end of Friday's session, once the failure of the two housing decrees was confirmed. If they have to be on a Sunday (only the general elections of 1977, 1979, and 1982 were on a weekday, although in Catalonia they were also not held on a Sunday in 2006 or 2017), the earliest they could be is November 29. A scenario that would imply signing the decree for the dissolution of the Cortes this very Monday so that it would be published on Tuesday in the BOE. In any case, sources consulted by the ARA have pointed out throughout the weekend that the decision had not been made and that it will be Sánchez himself who makes it, the only person with the constitutional power to do so.

Advisory

Over the weekend, sources close to the Spanish government acknowledged that Sánchez has held conversations about a hypothetical snap election. In private, he has made calls to ask for advice and has also received some from people he trusts, both in the government and the PSOE. In public, he has seen a group of barons of the socialist party pressuring him to put an end to the legislature. At least the leader in Castile and León, Carlos Martínez, who asked yesterday for them to be held "in November better than in December and in December better than in January"; the one from Castile-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, and the barons of the Basque Country, Eneko Andueza, and of Extremadura, Álvaro Sánchez Cotrina, have done so. The one who has not taken a public position is the president of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, who has a much closer relationship with the Spanish president. Sources close to the PSC leader explain that he will support whatever decision Sánchez makes. In the background of all this, there is also a request that some socialist barons, as well as mayoral candidates, have been making to the Spanish president for months, both in public and in private: that he submit himself to the polls first so that the municipal and regional elections on May 23rd cannot turn into a plebiscite on Sanchismo.

So far, the polls have not been kind to the PSOE, and even less so to the parties to its left. Only the CIS, presided over by the academic-questioned José Félix Tezanos, has always predicted first place for them. The PP has been demanding elections for some time, and the conservatives have continued to do so these days. Alberto Núñez Feijóo started it on Friday, and this Sunday it was, among many others, deputy Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo who challenged Sánchez: "Come on, democrat, dare to call elections".

The latest poll that has emerged is not, however, very promising for those who defend this idea. The La Vanguardia poll on hypothetical Catalan elections reinforces the idea of a fall for the PSC –one of the PSOE's main electoral supports– and a major rise of the far right, both of Aliança Catalana, which would rival the socialists for first place, and Vox.

The left tries to organize itself

The PP and Vox are eager to go to elections, even if the reason for calling them is housing. The crisis in Ceuta is not yet over, cases of alleged corruption are accumulating around the Moncloa, the government's weakness is becoming evident in Parliament and, even, Carles Puigdemont is about to return. But the left-wing parties are arriving with more problems. ERC does not want elections because all pending agreements with the PSOE would lapse, as Oriol Junqueras has made clear. In Podemos, Ione Belarra has also positioned herself against the electoral call because what needs to be done, she says, is to re-approve the housing decrees. Sánchez could do it even if he opted for early elections: the council of ministers would have to meet this Monday urgently and approve them. In fact, it would no longer be the plenary session of Congress that would have to validate them, but the permanent deputation, and in this body the PP, Vox and Junts do not hold a majority.

But those who saw everything as bleakest until now were Sumar and its satellites. Without having closed either the candidate or the parties that would have to integrate the Broad Front with which they are christening the new electoral contraption, Yolanda Díaz's successors have called the presentation of the candidacy for next October 17th. Then they will present their roadmap, but if Sánchez presses the electoral button they will have to accelerate the period of reflection.