Trump's diplomatic shift does not stop the war and an uncontrolled escalation is feared.

BarcelonaDonald Trump postponed the ultimatum he had given to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and He claims to have opened a channel of negotiation with the ayatollahs' regime.In the midst of a global energy crisis, Iran announced its intention to negotiate a peace treaty on Monday, shortly before the opening of US markets. Losses on the stock exchanges were quickly stemmed, and Brent crude fell below $100. However, Tehran denied that any talks were underway, leading to the prevailing view that the chances of resolving the conflict diplomatically seem remote. Actors such as China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are attempting to mediate while preparing for an uncontrolled escalation of the war, as they distrust Washington's intentions. On the ground, in fact, no signs of de-escalation have been seen in recent hours: Israel and the United States have continued bombing sensitive Iranian infrastructure and cities, while Tehran has continued attacking the interests of Tel Aviv, Washington, and their allies in the region, all while maintaining its oil blockade.

This Tuesday afternoon, Pentagon sources explained to Reuters that Washington will send thousands of soldiers from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. The troop deployment continues, while Trump reiterated this evening that negotiations are indeed underway. In an appearance from the Oval Office, Trump insisted that talks with Tehran are still ongoing and that the Iranians want to reach "an agreement." The tycoon, in fact, has stated that there has been a "regime change." "We've really had a regime change. This is a regime change because the leaders are all different. I think we can say that this is a regime change," he said.

Given this scenario, however, analysts consulted by this newspaper do not see conditions for genuine negotiations and believe that the war will continue to escalate. The obstacles range from the Trump administration's lack of credibility, the difficulty in finding a legitimate and credible interlocutor after the assassination of key figures in the Iranian regime, Israel's ability to torpedo any agreement between Washington and Tehran, and above all, the fact that all parties involved want the enemy defeated.

Iran has little reason to trust Trump's negotiating offer. Israel and the United States started the last two wars against Tehran (the 12-day war in June 2025 and the current one) when negotiations were underway. "The Iranians already know this modus operandi"And throughout this time they have announced what their reprisals would be in each situation, and that is what they have done," Haizam Amirah Fernández, director of the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, explained to ARA. "The Arab leaders of the Gulf understood from the beginning that Tehran was not going to..." lantern and asked the White House not to start this war,” he adds. He emphasizes that there is a “real risk” that these attacks “will render some of the Gulf countries, which are heavily dependent on [the US], uninhabitable.” from desalination water, of electrical energy and its energy infrastructure." Amirah laments that these warnings were ignored, that Israel dragged the US into the war, as Marco Rubio admitted in the first week, and points out: "Only an ignorant person could believe that a surgical strike would bring about regime change in the '~~~. Despite the joint US-Israeli attack, the Iranian regime shows no signs of wanting to surrender, continues to control the Strait of Hormuz, and the war is becoming increasingly unpopular among Americans, who see fuel prices rising. "Trump needs a way out, but he must appear victorious: following the Israeli playbook: strike once, and if it doesn't work, strike harder," says Amirah. The researcher warns that Trump may be tempted to use nuclear weapons, as the United States did against Japan in World War II, to cause a "one-time crippling blow," which would have "gigantic" implications in a world where international law and non-proliferation mechanisms seem "superfluous."

Time, an ally of Tehran

Iranian political scientist Anahita Nassir warns that "the regime will only negotiate to buy time to resolve the uncertainties surrounding the leadership." She emphasizes that the Revolutionary Guard, the regime's praetorian guard, is gaining more power as political leaders are eliminated in attacks by Israel and the United States. "The United States exaggerates its secret talks, while the regime, through its propaganda, denies them, although it admits that there are talks with third countries." Nassir points out that "this entire situation of militarization does not reduce the pressure on the civilian population and the repression against those who dare to confront the regime: on the contrary, executions are accelerating as bombs dropped by Israel and the US fall."

The regime's "decapitation" strategy, driven primarily by Israel, has also made it more difficult to find a partner for potential dialogue. One candidate could be the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a highly influential figure in the security apparatus. He was commander of the Revolutionary Guard's air force from 1997 to 2000 and head of national security forces from 2000 to 2005. Following the departure of Ali Larijani, Ghalibaf has become one of the most experienced figures still in positions of institutional responsibility, but it is unclear whether he has the legitimacy and authority to represent Tehran in negotiations.

The Iranian leadership does not want a false closure, as happened in the war last June. The regime feels empowered to further exacerbate the economic problems of the United States and the petro-monarchies, using the Hormuz blockade as a weapon of global socioeconomic destruction. It also wants to sell the message that it has defeated Trump and Netanyahu.

Netanyahu presses

And in this story, there's a third actor who always wants to have the last word: Israel. The possibility of resuming negotiations between the United States and Iran hasn't impressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has said he will continue attacks "in both Iran and Lebanon." As Mairav ​​Zonszein, an Israeli researcher with the International Crisis Group, explains to this newspaper, "Israel also has no incentive to negotiate, and although the country is completely paralyzed by Iranian missile and drone attacks, Netanyahu wants to continue inflicting maximum damage on Iran."

Zonszein highlights how, over time, Netanyahu has softened his objectives and speaks less about regime change, which seems increasingly unlikely. "Netanyahu is more interested in chaos within the Iranian regime than in regime change," the researcher points out. She also warns that Israel "will ultimately have to accept whatever Trump decides, but it can try to convince him to move forward or undermine efforts toward negotiations." At the same time, the Israeli government is ordering an increasingly aggressive policy in Lebanon, where it is preparing for a ground invasion

Eduard Soler, professor of international relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and IBEI, is also not optimistic about the prospect of negotiations. "Trump has essentially postponed the ultimatum until Friday, when he will have more time to act with the markets closed. I don't think the United States is sending enough signals to make it clear that there is an alternative to war." He also warns of the extent to which traditional US alliances have weakened, both in the petro-monarchies and in Europe and the Asian powers, while the only bond that has been strengthened (at least temporarily) is Washington's with Israel.