Evacuate, empty, attack: Gaza's strategy is now fracturing Lebanon

BeirutThe attack, yet another in a war that seems to have no end, was not in the south or in the Shiite outlying neighborhoods of Beirut. It took place in Hazmieh, a residential area far from the usual front lines. It is the second attack in this Christian area in the east of the city, and it struck a building housing displaced families. According to local authorities, the man targeted in the bombing had arrived just an hour earlier. He was not listed as a tenant. One person was killed.

The incident has thrown the municipality, which is hosting 258 refugee families, into disarray. "We welcome all displaced people," declared the president of the municipal council, Jean Asmar, at the start of the renewed hostilities. "But after Monday's attack, we will be forced to make decisions beyond our control," he added.

In Lebanon, war is beginning to produce these kinds of statements. It's no longer just about bombings, or even mass displacements. What's changing is the very logic of the conflict. Israel isn't just striking Hezbollah positions; it's applying a recognizable pattern modeled on Gaza: evacuate, empty, and attack. And, in the process, it's also shifting the boundaries of what's considered a safe zone.

In the last three weeks, more than a million people have left their homes. In a country of just five million inhabitants, this represents 20% of the population. Evacuation orders have spread across large areas of southern Beirut and its southern suburbs, forcing entire communities to flee under the immediate threat of indiscriminate attacks. From the recent escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on March 2Israeli attacks have caused at least 1,039 deaths in Lebanon, including 118 children and 40 healthcare workers, according to the Ministry of Public Health.

Organizations like Human Rights Watch warn that these kinds of mass evacuations, when they do not respond to an imperative military need or do not guarantee the return of the population, can constitute a war crime. In Gaza, this system ended up pushing practically the entire population into increasingly smaller enclaves. In Lebanon, the process seems to be moving in a similar direction, albeit on a different scale.

A country turned into a jigsaw puzzle

In the south, the systematic destruction of infrastructure—bridges over the Litani River, main roads—is fragmenting the country. Some towns are becoming progressively isolated, with increasing difficulties in receiving aid or even for the population to flee. It is not only a matter of preventing the movement of combatants; it also restricts the movement of civilians. The case of the Al Dalafa Bridge, which connects Hasbaya with Jezzine, illustrates this logic. It is a key artery between the south and the Bekaa Valley. It was already destroyed in 1982 and 2006, and this Monday it was again the target of an Israeli attack, leaving the connection practically severed.

At the same time, the bombing of the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, has reached an intensity that goes beyond the strictly military objective. Entire neighborhoods have been affected. Residential buildings have been reduced to rubble. The distinction between military target and civilian environment is becoming increasingly blurred. For some analysts, this strategy responds to a logic of indirect pressure: striking at the social environment that sustains Hezbollah. But the effect is much broader. Violence doesn't just destroy infrastructure or eliminate specific targets. It reshapes behaviors.

On the Hezbollah side, the discourse also points to a protracted war. Leaders of the Shiite militia claim to have corrected security flaws detected in previous conflicts and speak of long-term preparation. They avoid detailing capabilities, but hint that not everything is at stake at this stage. The confrontation, they suggest, has only just begun.

In parallel, Israeli political discourse suggests that the objectives go beyond the neutralization of Hezbollah. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich openly argued that Israel's northern border should be located at the Litani River, several kilometers inside Lebanese territory. The idea of ​​a new, expanded, and possibly permanent security zone has resurfaced in the debate. On the ground, some of these hypotheses are beginning to take shape. The combination of mass displacement, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and control de facto The situation in certain areas paints a picture in which the return of the population is not guaranteed.

Even the international peacekeeping mission is directly affected. In the last 48 hours, UNIFIL has experienced gunfire and explosions inside and around its headquarters in Naqoura. Shrapnel and fragments have damaged buildings and open areas within the facility, forcing the Blue Helmets to constantly take cover. Just before noon today, a projectile struck a building at the headquarters. The mission has reminded all actors of their responsibility to ensure the safety of the Blue Helmets and to avoid any actions that put them at risk.