Trump orders to sink any Iranian ship that attempts to mine the Strait of Hormuz

WashingtonWith each passing day, the ceasefire is emptying of meaning. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the Navy to "shoot to kill" any ship that mines the Strait of Hormuz. He announced this Thursday through a post on Truth Social – as usual – and said that the U.S. military "will not hesitate" to attack ships attempting to mine the strait. He also indicated that he has likewise issued orders for minesweeping vessels to "triple" their efforts to ensure the strait is safe for navigation.

However, internal Pentagon projections are that it will take at least six months to completely clear the passage. But even if all the mines were removed, instability and the double blockade would continue to be a brake on shipping companies and insurers. Restoring confidence when Washington has lost credibility as a stabilizing power is not that simple.

The Iranian blockade in Hormuz, and the subsequent U.S. counter-blockade, have turned the area into a ticking time bomb. For every new vessel intercepted by the U.S. or the Revolutionary Guard, the region plunges a little closer to the abyss of war. This Wednesday, Iran intercepted three ships attempting to cross its cordon without coordinating with the Revolutionary Guard, as was recorded in the ceasefire accepted on April 7. In parallel, Washington has also continued to intercept more ships with Iranian flags both in Hormuz and in other areas. Early Thursday morning, the military boarded another in the Indian Ocean. It is an unflagged tanker, the M/T Majestic X, which reportedly departed from Iran, according to the Department of Defense.

Amidst an indefinite truce that Trump unilaterally extended and that Tehran says it does not accept, it seems that all that remains is to wait and see what spark will ignite the entire region again. In a second post on Truth Social, Trump also lashed out at the Iranian regime, insisting that it is divided. "Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don't know! The infighting between the "hardliners" who have been losing badly on the battlefield, and the "moderates" who are not moderate at all (but are gaining respect!), is crazy," he wrote.

When on Tuesday he unilaterally extended the truce, Trump took refuge in the narrative that internal divisions within Iran were making it difficult for Tehran to present a solid proposal. Thus, he was extending the pause until they were capable of delivering an offer.

The reality in Iran, however, seems very different from what the magnate wants to show. The war, and the assassination of many of the leaders of the ayatollahs' top brass – some more moderate figures, like Ali Larijani – have favored the hardline and more radical wing. Likewise, Tehran has made clear for days what its condition is for returning to the negotiating table: that Trump lift the military cordon in Hormuz. Which has not happened. In fact, this Thursday he has insisted again that the US has "total control over the strait" and that "it is sealed until Iran is capable of making a deal." The siege on the strait is to inflict economic damage on the Iranians, despite the fact that the Treasury Department has extended the partial lifting of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil transported by sea.

According to the vice-president of the Iranian Parliament, Haji Babai, the ayatollahs' regime has begun to receive the first revenues from the collection of the toll that Tehran claims to have imposed in the Strait of Hormuz. For now, the total amount that Iran would have collected is unknown, which has already been deposited in the country's Central Bank, according to the Iranian agency Tasnim.

Uncertainty about negotiations

The diplomatic path remains deadlocked. On Wednesday, Trump said in an interview with the New York Post that there could be "good news" within the next 72 hours, but there has been no movement or statement to suggest that talks could resume this weekend. Iran reiterates that it will not negotiate as long as the US blocks its ports. "The non-fulfillment of commitments, the blockade, and the threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations," said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday.

And, for the moment, there has been no further news about the suspended trip of Vice President J.D. Vance to Islamabad with the rest of the US delegation. In principle, the administration had said it could resume by the end of this week, depending on the diplomatic efforts of Pakistan, the mediating country, to bring positions closer. This Thursday, the Pakistani government has assured that it is making "every possible effort, at all levels" to salvage the second round of negotiations and has said it expects "positive progress from Iran".

Meanwhile, the US continues to deploy military personnel in the region. Before the ceasefire, the Pentagon had already mobilized additional forces and has continued to do so during the truce. It is expected that by the end of the month, around 10,000 extra soldiers will have arrived, joining the 50,000 that the Pentagon has said it has mobilized globally in operations to counter Iran.

Furthermore, from Tel Aviv, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has stated that his government expects the "green light" from the US to resume the war against Iran and "complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty." In a video message, he assured that the Hebrew army is "prepared for defense and attack" and that "the targets are marked."