The war against Iran boosts Netanyahu's popularity

JerusalemThe war against Iran has become a political opportunity for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In just over two weeks of conflict, the offensive has allowed him to turn the political agenda around and place security back at the center of the debate, shifting the focus away from Gaza.a war that was beginning to exhaust the Israelis—towards a scenario, that of Iran, where the consensus is much broader. Several analysts agree that, if the war were to end today, Netanyahu would be the main beneficiary.

This is how the prime minister himself chose to portray it in his second press conference since the start of the war, which began with a resounding: "I am alive, and you are all witnesses," referring to recent rumors about his possible death. Netanyahu firmly defended the military strategy and asserted that the operation Rising LionThe plan, designed to "eliminate the existential threat posed by the ayatollahs' regime," is bearing fruit, but that He does not rule out the possibility of a ground operation to bring about the final fall of the Iranian regime.

"You can't make a revolution from the air; there must also be a ground component. There are many possibilities for that ground component, and I take the liberty of not sharing them all with you," he stated. "We are winning. Iran is being dismantled. There is still work to be done, and we will do it," he concluded, reaffirming the role of Israel and the United States in regional and global security.

The government's narrative, in short, maintains that the offensive is progressing favorably. In this regard, the Israel Defense Forces claim to have attacked strategic infrastructure with relative freedom and to have reduced Iran's naval and air capabilities, while asserting that no significant civilian casualties have occurred within Israel. According to the Prime Minister himself, Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, two of the campaign's main objectives. As for the human toll, the latest official figures indicate that approximately fifteen Israelis have died since the start of the conflict, while the number of casualties in Iran exceeds 1,300 and in Lebanon, 980.

This narrative resonates with a public opinion that, for the moment, remains largely aligned with the government. According to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, nearly 93% of Israeli Jews support the military operation. In contrast, support is much lower among the Arab population, where a ceasefire is the predominant preference. Overall, general support for the war stands at around 80% and has remained virtually unchanged since the start of the offensive.

The key to this support lies in the widespread perception of Iran as an existential threat to the State of Israel. For more than two decades, Netanyahu has built his political discourse around this risk. Eliminating the Iranian nuclear and ballistic threat has been an obsession for the prime minister. For now, the war seems to have reinforced this narrative among a large segment of Israeli society and the majority of the political spectrum, which rallied behind the prime minister from the very first day of the conflict.

Trust in the politician also remains relatively high, at around 74% among Jewish voters. However, trust in the Israel Defense Forces is even higher, at nearly 80%, a record high according to data released Monday by the Jerusalem-based Jewish People Policy Institute, a think tank and strategic analysis center.

Polls favor the government's decision

Furthermore, the internal cost of the conflict is perceived, for the moment, as manageable. Despite daily attacks originating from Iran and Hezbollah from Lebanon, a significant majority of the population feels protected. According to the Israel Democracy Institute itself, 79% of Israeli Jews report feeling safe from Iranian attacks, while among the Arab population this figure is only 15%, possibly due to a lower availability of shelters in predominantly Arab areas.

The economy continues to function, essential services remain operational, and daily life has not been completely disrupted, with support measures such as paid leave – especially in affected sectors like hospitality – well-stocked shops, and functioning public transport.

However, this support has not yet translated directly into an electoral advantage. Polls continue to place his coalition far from a clear majority in the Israeli Parliament, with approximately 50 of the 120 seats, a significant drop from the current 68. Nevertheless, if Netanyahu continues to portray the war against Iran as a success, analysts predict a favorable shift in his standing leading up to the elections scheduled for October.